Transcript Greenhouse Gas Emissions Past, Present and Future

Prior to Start of Session 5
• Start your computers
• Launch browser
• Login to Changing Planet web portal
– http://communities.earthportal.org/changingclimate
• Look in session 5 of “Workshop Notebook” and
download “Spreadsheet for CO2 decomposition.”
• Open the spreadsheet and minimize its window
• Keep your browser and the spreadsheet open –
we’ll use them during the session
Greenhouse Gases
Past, Present and Future
Session 5(a)
Neil Leary
Changing Planet Study Group
July 19-22, 2010
Cooling the Liberal Arts Curriculum
A NASA-GCCE Funded Project
Carbon Cycle
Source: UNEP, GRID/Arendal, Vital Climate Graphics, http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/climate/
“Keeling Curve.” Average monthly CO2 concentration (red) and 12 month moving average (blue). This
figure was created by Robert Rohde from published data.
Industrial revolution and the atmosphere
Carbon dioxide
Source: IPCC 2007, WGI, Figure SPM-1.
Methane
Nitrous Oxide
CO2 Concentration
350
(ppmv)
Last Interglacial
Last Ice Age
Carbon Dioxide
300
250
200
[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]
600
500
400
300
200
Thousands of Years Before Present
100
0
All GHG emissions in CO2e, excluding emissions from land-use change and forestry.
Per Capita
CO2
Emissions
Source: World Bank online database, 2004
CO2 emissions growth, 1990-2005
Excludes emissions from land use change and forestry.
Source: WRI-CAIT database, July 2010, http://cait.wri.org/
IPCC Scenario Storylines
Source: derived from IPCC SRES, 2000.
Projections of CO2 Emissions and Concentrations
Source: IPCC, 2001, WGI Report, Figure 5
Projections of GHG Emissions and Changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature
Source: IPCC, 2007, Synthesis Report, Figure SPM-5
Source: IPCC 2001, Synthesis Report, Figure SPM-10b
CAIT/WRI
Climate Analysis Indicators
Tool
Login to CAIT:
http://cait.wri.org/
Explore data and tools
using navigation bar
on left
Download and graph data
• Click “Countries &
Regions”
• Select “Countries”
• Highlight 10 countries
• Click [>>]
• Select “Display My
Countries/Regions”
• Click [Save Changes]
Get data for CO2, CO2 w/ LUCF, All GHGs
• Select “GHG Emissions”
• Use buttons to select CO2.
• Sort list of countries
alphabetically
• Select “Download”
• Open the downloaded
spreadsheet
– Look in downloads folder
• Repeat for CO2 w/ LUCF
• Repeat for All GHGs
• Copy emissions data into
one spreadsheet
Source: chart constructed with data from WRI-CAIT database, July 2010, http://cait.wri.org/.
Top 10 emitters: total, per capita and per $ gdp
Rank
CO2 Total from Energy
CO2 per capita
CO2/$GDP
1
USA
Qatar
Nauru
2
China
Kuwait
Uzbekistan
3
EU (27)
UAE
N Korea
4
Russian Fed
Bahrain
Turkmenistan
5
Japan
Luxembourg
Serbia & Mont
6
India
USA
Mongolia
7
Germany
Trinidad & Tob
Kazakhstan
8
Canada
Australia
Ukraine
9
UK
Canada
China
S Korea
Saudi Arabia
Iraq*
10
Essential principles of GHGs (1)
(Or: what should our students learn?)
• CO2, CH4, N2O have natural & human sources
• Human sources: mostly burning fossil energy,
clearing land, agriculture
• Emissions have grown rapidly since mid-19th century
• Capacity of Earth systems to process has been
exceeded; concentrations growing.
– CO2 concentration now higher than past 800k years or
longer
– Stabilizing emissions will not stabilize concentrations
• Emissions growth driven by population, per capita
income, energy intensity, carbon intensity
Essential principles of GHGs (2)
(Or: what should our students learn?)
• 25 countries responsible for 80% of emissions
• Developed countries account for majority of past
& current emissions
– Emissions growth most rapid in developing world; will
exceed developed countries soon
– Per capita emissions several times lower!
• Emission profiles differ in North and South
– North: CO2 from energy
– South: significant CH4, N2O from land use, agriculture
• If no agreement to cut global emissions, GHGs
will warm planet 1-6oC by 2100
Useful Resources
• WRI website: www.wri.org
– CAIT and CAIT-US databases & tools
– Baumert, Herzog, Pershing (2005)
– EarthTrends database
• USEPA website: www.epa.gov/climatechange/
– Official inventories of US GHG emissions
– Lots of other information about climate change
Extra Slides
Global mean radiative forcings in 2005 relative to 1750 with 90% confidence
intervals (W m-2). Source: IPCC 2007 WG1, Figure 2.20
Source: Baumert, Herzog and Pershing, 2005.
IPCC (2007), Figure 5, WG1 SPM
IPCC (2007), chapter 10, Figure 10.8. Multi-model mean annual surface
warming relative to 1980-1999
IPCC (2007), Figure 7 SPM. Multi-model average changes in DJF and JJA
precipitation for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999.
Global trends in CO2 emissions, income,
population, energy intensity and carbon intensity
Source: IPCC 2007, WGIII Report, Figure SPM-2
Kaya Identity & decomposition
CO2 = Pop x GDP/Pop x E/GDP x C/E
Emissions = population x per capita income x energy
intensity x carbon intensity
For small changes:
% Δ CO2 =
% Δ population
+ % Δ per capita income
+ % Δ energy intensity
+% Δ carbon intensity