Transcript The Impact of Population Growth on CO2 Emissions

The Impact of Population Growth
on CO2 Emissions: An Empirical
Analysis
Presented by
GÖKHAN ÜNLÜ
OUTLINE
 INTRODUCTION
 ECONOMIC
REASONS BEHIND CO2
EMISSIONS
 ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
 POLICY IMPLICATIONS
 CONCLUSIONS
The aim,importance and expected outcome
of the study

The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between population growth and carbon dioxide(CO2)
emissions in thousand metric tons and human impact on CO2.

Carbon dioxide is an essential gas in the earth and it is well known as a greenhouse gas due to global warming.
Greenhouse gases hold the sun’s radiation in the atmosphere and regulates the temperature of the world

Global greenhouse gas emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase
of 70 percent between 1970 and 2004.

Atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 exceeded by far the natural range over the last 650.000 years. Global
increases in CO2 are due to primarily to fosil fuel use.

Our world has been experiencing a rapid increase of CO2 emissions while underdeveloped countries are
becoming richer and increasing population size; however, rich countries are unable to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.

Increasing world population puts pressure on natural resources and increases the demand for energy in the forms
of transportation, power, industry, deforestation

Expected finding of this study is to indicate a close and strong relationship between population growth and CO2
emissions
Economic Reasons Behind CO2
 Market

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failures examined in this study:
Externality// This decision not only affects the
parents but also affects the society as a
whole.
Public good// clean nature and clean air
Sustainable development// future generations
vs rapid population growth
ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS

In the model eight countries from different continents have been
selected in order to evaluate the different locations around the world
in terms of their economic activities(developed or developing),
population growth patterns and energy consumption given a 25 year
period (1980-2004)

From Americas; USA
From Europe ; Turkey, Spain
From Asia; India,
From Africa; South Africa, Egypt, Morocco
From Australia: Australia
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THE REGRESSION
lnCO2 = β1 + β2 lnpopulation + β3 ln gdp + β4 ln oil + ui
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lnCO2:The percentage change in CO2 emissions in thousand metric tons
lnpopulation: The percentage change in population
lngdp: The percentage change in GDP
lnoil: The percentage change in total oil consumption
β1 : The intercept term of the model.
β2 : The elasticity of population
β3 : The elasticity of GDP
β4 : The elasticity of oil consumption
ui : Error term
ECONOMETRIC RESULTS
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
EGYPT
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-33.18*** (-3.04)
3.01**
(2.06)
-0.47 (-0.70)
0.41 (1.44)
0.96
246
1.16
TURKEY
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-15.1*** (-2.96)
1.42*** (4.05)
0.57* (1.80)
0.50 (1.48)
0.97
356
1.21
MOROCCO
SOUTH AFRICA
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-7.39 (-1.43)
1.23*** (3.87)
0.03 (0.12)
-0.37 (1.09)
0.87
56
1.63
***p<0.01
**p<0.05
*p<0.10
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-1.24 (0.01)
35.21* (1.90)
-30.03*** (-3.29)
26.30*** (4.71)
0.86
52
1.81
INDIA
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-51.97*** (-6.75)
3.99*** (-8.51)
-0.70*** (-3.45)
0.27
(1.34)
0.99
236
1.49
ECONOMETRIC RESULTS
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
USA
AUSTRALIA
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-5.59 (-1.01)
0.75 (1.31)
-0.07 (-0.37)
0.88*** (6.58)
0.97
341
1.56
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-0.03 (-0.04)
1.48* (1.75)
-0.89*** (-3.34)
1.72*** (5.04))
0.95
181
1.92
SPAIN
Variables
Dependent Variable:
C02 Emissions
Constant
ln population
ln gdp
ln oil
R2(adjusted)
F stat
DW
-17.78* (-1.81)
1.57** (2.27)
-0.11 (-0.83)
0.79*** (7.39)
0.95
180
1.77
***p<0.01
**p<0.05
*p<0.10
POLICY IMPLICATIONS

The United States causing 25 percent of the world’s CO2 emissions,
refuses to ratify the Kyoto protocol to reduce greenhouse gases,
mainly carbon dioxide, , which forces industrialised nations to
decline emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.

A carbon price is a way of recognising the true cost of emitting. It is
the best possible way of allocating that cost because it allows
governments to set a practical limit to carbon output and allows the
market mechanism to sort out the best way to allocate that limited
right

In a study of Frank Jöst and Martin Quaas, they examine the
external effects of parents’ decision on number newly born children
on emissions and they discuss a Pigouvian tax on emissions and
taxes on population.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Renewable energy sources such as hydropower, solar, wind and
bionergy should be preferred instead of fosil fuels

We should increase the use of fuel efficient vehicles and prefer rail
and public transport system to road transport. For close distances
we can try cycling and walking. In buildings efficient lighting, solar
heating and cooling must be maintained.

What human can do in this process is changing our lifestyle and
.
behaviours, at least starting from using public transport
PROJECTION OF POPULATION GROWTH
(Million)
Can you ignore the human influence?...
CONCLUSIONS

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We carried out an analysis to investigate the relationship
between CO2 emissions and population growth by
adding determinants of gross domestic product and oil
consumption into the model. We used the data of eight
countries which are separated with respect to their
economic development levels during the period 19802004.
We conclude that the population coefficients of
developed countries are greater than the coefficients of
developing countries. In other words, the impact of
population growth on CO2 emissions in developing
countries are much higher than the developed countries
according to the findings of this study