Transcript M01P02SusCO2Emiss

Discussion Point 5:
Should we place a limit on
the global CO2 emissions
to ensure sustainable
development?
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels
& the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2)
12000
10000
8000
6000
from solid fuel burning
from liquid fuel burning
from gas fuel burning
from cement production
from gas flaring
4000
2000
0
1750
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1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html
Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels
& the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2)
35000
30000
Total emissions
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1750
R. Shanthini
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1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html
Global Carbon Cycle
Fossilfuel
burning
5.3
Land
use
0.6 – 2.6
Numbers are billions of tons of carbon
Photosynthesis
100-120
Plant respiration
40 - 50
Decay of residues
50 - 60
Sea-surface
gas
exchange
100 - 115
Net ocean
uptake
1.6 – 2.4
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Geological
reservoir
Atmospheric Carbon dioxide
Concentrations
400
CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere
(in ppmv)
375
350
385.3 ppmv in 2008
325
300
275 ppmv in preindustrial time
275
1750
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1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including
Carbon dioxide
GHGs are gases in an
atmosphere that absorb and emit
radiation within the thermal
infrared range.
This process is the fundamental
cause of the greenhouse effect.
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The Greenhouse effect
A
SUN
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T
M
O
S
P
H
E
R
E
The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere
are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, and ozone.
Without GHGs, Earth's surface
would be on average about
33°C colder than at present.
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Rise in the concentration of four GHGs
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Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs
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Global Warming
The burning of fossil fuels, land use
change and other industrial activities
since the industrial revolution have
increased the GHGs in the atmosphere
to such a level that the earth’s surface
is heating up to temperatures that are
very destructive to life on earth.
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Global temperature anomalies
from land meteorological stations (in deg C)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Base period
-0.4
-0.6
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Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html
Global temperature anomalies
from land and ocean observations (in deg C)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
Base period
-0.4
-0.6
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Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html
Hemispheric annual temperature anomalies
from land and ocean observations
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Base period
-0.6
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Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html
The global temperature has risen
by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century
(from 1906 to 2005).
Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Compare the above with the fact that
the global temperature has not
varied by more than 1 or 2oC during
the past 100 centuries.
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Global warming has begun,
and so has the Climate Change.
Consequences…………
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20 Aug 2010
Consequences…………
World’s first environmental
refugees
from Carteret Islands,
Papua New Guinea.
• Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the
Carteret Islands.
• Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands
freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops.
• The islands were declared uninhabitable by the
government in 2005 and expected to be completely
submerged by 2015.
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/
Consequences…………
• death of coral reefs
• fewer cubs for polar bears
• spread of dengue and other diseases
• heavy rains & severe draughts
• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes
• changed rainfall patterns
• warming and aridity
• loss of biodiversity
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Rate of increase of CO2 concentration
(in ppmv/year)
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1.8 ppmv/year
in 2008
0.5
0
1960
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1970
1980
1990
Year
2000
2010
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013 and
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html
CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
500
475
450
actual value
at 1.5 ppmv/year
at 2.0 ppmv/year
at 2.5 ppmv/year
425
global
temperature
may be up
by 2oC
400
375
350
2000
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2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase
per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached
in 2018, and it is probable that the global
o
temperature would go up by 2 C
(compare it with the 0.01oC per decade
estimate by WWF).
-Accelerated Climate Change
-Mass extinctions
-Ecosystems breakdowns
-Large scale discontinuities
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20 Aug 2010
Some say, forget about the 2oC.
The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2.
It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly
twice the pre-industrial value),
which we may reach not.
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv)
650
600
550
actual value
at 1.5 ppmv/year
at 2.0 ppmv/year
at 2.5 ppmv/year
500
450
We are lucky.
Are we?
400
350
2000
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2025
2050
Year
2075
2100
Sustainable Limit
Calculations
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Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
1. Virgin material supply limit:
To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration
below approximately 550 ppmv by the year
2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be
limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga
tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996).
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20 Aug 2010
Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
2. Allocation of virgin material:
Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the
planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal
share of carbon emissions.
That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents
per person per year,
which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per
person per year.
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
10
9
8
7
6
USA
5
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HDI (defined on next page)2005
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Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
10
9
8
7
6
5
Singapore
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
USA
Norway
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
HDI (defined on next page)2005
1
Iceland
Japan
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Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)
HDI =
LI
3
+
2
EI (Education Index) =
3
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+ GDPI
3
Life Expectancy - 25
85 - 25
LI (Life Index) =
GDPI (GDP Index) =
EI
3
Adult Literacy
1 School Enrollment
+
100
3
100
ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100)
ln(40000) - ln(100)
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
HDI > 0.8
10
Unsustainable amount of
per capita CO2 emissions
are required to reach
super high HDI (> 0.9)
9
8
7
6
USA
5
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HDI 2005
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
Discussion Point 6:
How to limit the CO2 emissions below the
sustainable limit?
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Take 10 mins.
Emissions Reduction Option 1:
Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as
forests where 70% of all photosynthesis
occurs).
But, we replace our forests with cities,
highways & golf courses.
Stop destroying forests,
and grow more trees.
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20 Aug 2010
The forest cover is already too small
to help reducing global warming.
How long does it take to grow
a tree like this?
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Emissions Reduction Option 2:
Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources
What are they?
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables (Geothermal, Solar,
Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass
and Biogas)
Muscle Power
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Energy from sustainably managed
renewable sources
Solar energy
Wind energy
Hydropower
Ocean energy
Geothermal
Biomass &
organic waste
Biomass &
organic waste
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Photovoltaic
thermal
waves, tides
heat
heat
DC electricity
AC electricity, hot water,
space heating etc.
AC electricity
AC electricity
AC electricity
AC electricity, hot water,
space heating etc.
heat, organic fuels
AC electricity, hot water,
space heating etc.
Ulf Bossel – October 2005
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU)
175
Petroleum
150
Coal
125
100
Dry Natural Gas
75
Hydroelectric Power
50
25
0
1980
Nuclear Electric
Power
1985
1990
1995
Year
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2000
2005
Electric Power from
Renewables
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
50%
Petroleum
40%
Coal
30%
Dry Natural Gas
20%
Hydroelectric Power
10%
0%
1980
Nuclear Electric
Power
1985
1990
1995
Year
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2000
2005
Electric Power from
Renewables
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Fossil fuels
50%
Hydroelectric Power
40%
Nuclear Electric Power
30%
Electric Power from Renewables
20%
10%
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
8%
7%
6%
5%
Hydroelectric Power
4%
Nuclear Electric Power
3%
Electric Power from Renewables
2%
1%
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
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http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
There is no immediate
financial benefits for a
switch to renewable
energy in the profitoriented energy markets.
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20 Aug 2010
Emissions Reduction Option 3:
Reduce Population
More people
More pollution
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Electricity use in 2006
If you are in USA,
you will be lighting
18.5 bulbs, each
with 200 W power
If you are in China,
you will be lighting
3 bulbs, each with
200 W power
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100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
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Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2005
International $)
in 2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
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Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2005
International $)
in 2005
CO2 emissions per capita
has stronger links
with GDP per capita
than with population.
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Emissions Reduction Option 4:
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
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Controversial since permanent storage of
CO2 underground is not guaranteed
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Controversial since the impacts on marine
ecosystem (very fragile) are not known
Discussion Point 7:
What could you do to limit the CO2 emissions
below the sustainable limit as an engineer?
R. Shanthini
20 Aug 2010
Take 10 mins.
Food for thought:
What are the Engineering Challenges to
sustainability?
􀂃 Global climate change
􀂃 Energy production and use
􀂃 Food production
􀂃 Resources depletion
􀂃 Toxics in the environment
􀂃 Making sustainable lifestyles attractive
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20 Aug 2010
Base for your CP551 project
The supreme Greek God Zeus
told Prometheus:
“You may give men such
gifts as are suitable, but
you must not give them
fire for that belongs to
the Immortals.”
– Roger Lancelyn Green
Tales of the Greek Heroes
Puffin Classics
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20 Aug 2010