Transcript Part 2 - rshanthini

If we do not design ways to
live within the means of one
planet, sustainability will
remain elusive.
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/
Energy and the Environment
Part II
CES
August 2010
Prof. R. Shanthini
Dept of Chemical & Process Engineering
Faculty of Engineering
University of Peradeniya
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Learning Objectives
å
Describe the major energy technologies
• Assess the impact of the use of energy from the
environmental (ecological) point of view
• Demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of
- energy sufficiency (conservation)
- energy efficiency
- energy security and
- sustainability issues
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Carbon dioxide emissions
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
Global CO2 emissions from
Total emissions
the burning of fossil fuels &
the manufacture of cement
(in 109 kg CO2)
10000
5000
0
1750
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15 Aug 2010
1800
1850
1900
Year
1950
2000
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html
Global Carbon Cycle
Fossilfuel
burning
5.3
Land
use
0.6 – 2.6
Numbers are billions of tons of carbon
Photosynthesis
100-120
Plant respiration
40 - 50
Decay of residues
50 - 60
Sea-surface
gas
exchange
100 - 115
Net ocean
uptake
1.6 – 2.4
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Geological
reservoir
Atmospheric Carbon dioxide
Concentrations
400
CO2 concentration
in the atmosphere
(in ppmv)
375
350
385.3 ppmv in 2008
325
300
275 ppmv in preindustrial time
275
1750
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1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including
Carbon dioxide
GHGs are gases in an
atmosphere that absorb and emit
radiation within the thermal
infrared range.
This process is the fundamental
cause of the greenhouse effect.
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The Greenhouse effect
A
SUN
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T
M
O
S
P
H
E
R
E
The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere
are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, and ozone.
Without GHGs, Earth's surface
would be on average about
33°C colder than at present.
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Rise in the concentration of four GHGs
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Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs
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Global Warming
The burning of fossil fuels, land use
change and other industrial activities
since the Industrial revolution have
increased the GHGs in the atmosphere
to such a level that the earth’s surface
is heating up to temperatures that are
very destructive to life on earth.
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15 Aug 2010
Global Warming
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Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html
Global Warming
The global temperature has risen
by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century
(from 1906 to 2005).
Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Compare the above with the fact that
the global temperature has not
o
varied by more than 1 or 2 C during
the past 100 centuries.
Global warming has begun…..
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Consequences…………
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Climate change
Climate change
World’s first environmental
refugees
from Carteret Islands,
Papua New Guinea.
• Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the
Carteret Islands.
• Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater
supply and preventing the growth of crops.
• The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government
in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015.
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15 Aug 2010
Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/
Climate change
• death of coral reefs
• fewer cubs for polar bears
• spread of dengue and other diseases
• heavy rains & severe draughts
• fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes
• changed rainfall patterns
• warming and aridity
• loss of biodiversity
and more……………..
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15 Aug 2010
At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase
per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached
in 2018, and it is probable that the global
o
temperature would go up by 2 C
(compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF).
-Accelerated Climate Change
-Mass extinctions
-Ecosystems breakdowns
-Large scale discontinuities
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Some say, forget about the 2oC.
The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2.
It is 550 ppmv CO2 (which is nearly
twice the pre-industrial value).
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Sustainable Limit
Calculations
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Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
1. Virgin material supply limit:
To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration
below approximately 550 ppmv by the year
2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be
limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga
tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996).
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
2. Allocation of virgin material:
Each of the average 7.5 billion people
on the planet over the next 50 years is
allocated an equal share of carbon
emissions.
This translates to roughly 1000 kg
(1 tonne) of C equivalents
per person per year.
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
3. Regional “re-captureable” resource
base:
Recycling of carbon in the form of permanent or
semi-permanent sequestration may eventually
possible through controversial techniques, not at
the moment.
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting
Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production:
4. Current consumption rate vs.
sustainable limiting rate:
The U.S. on average produced 5500 kg (5.5 tonnes)
of C equivalents per person (including emissions
from land use change) in 2000, which is well beyond
the global sustainable rate of 1000 kg (1 tonne) of C
equivalents per person per year.
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about
sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
HDI > 0.8
10
9
8
7
6
USA
5
4
Sri Lanka
3
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HDI (defined on next page)2005
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15 Aug 2010
Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)
HDI =
LI
3
+
2
EI (Education Index) =
3
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15 Aug 2010
+ GDPI
3
Life Expectancy - 25
85 - 25
LI (Life Index) =
GDPI (GDP Index) =
EI
3
Adult Literacy
2 School Enrollment
+
100
3
100
ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100)
ln(40000) - ln(100)
(tonnes of C equivalent)
CO2 Emissions per capita 2004
HDI > 0.8
10
Unsustainable amount of
per capita CO2 emissions
are required to reach
super high HDI (> 0.9)
9
8
7
6
USA
5
4
Sri Lanka
Sustainable
limit
3
2
1
0
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
HDI 2005
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm
Discussion Point 3:
How to limit the CO2 emissions below the
sustainable limit?
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15 Aug 2010
Take 10 mins.
Peak Oil: Oil supply peak has been
reached in many oil fields,
Fossil Fuel Type
Reserves–to-production (R/P) ratio
gives the number of years the
remaining reserves (most optimistic
estimates) would last if production
were to continue at the 2007 level
Oil
41.6 years
Natural Gas
60.3 years
Coal
133 years
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15 Aug 2010
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2008
Peak Oil: Oil supply peak has been
reached in many oil fields,
Production
from Mexico's
largest oilfield,
Cantarell, fell
from
1.99 million b/d
in Jan 2006
to
1.44 million b/d
in Dec 2006.
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15 Aug 2010
Source: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/mx/
Well #34 has run dry and is now pumping fossils
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15 Aug 2010
Source: www.cartoonstock.com/directory/f/fossil_fuel.asp
“Development that meets the needs
of the present without compromising
the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs.“
- “Our Common Future”, 1987
Dr. Gro Harlem Brundtland
Former Prime Minister, Norway
Former Chair/ World Commission on
Environment and Development
Responsible for the broad political concept
of Sustainable Development
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15 Aug 2010
Discussion Point 4:
Could we achieve a world that consumes
sustainable energy without re-organizing
the entire energy system of the present?
Sustainable Energy: is energy which is
replenishable within a human lifetime and
causes no long-term damages to the
environment.
Renewable Energy: are flows of energy
that are regenerative or virtually inexhaustible
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15 Aug 2010
Take 10 mins.
Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks
(such as forests where 70% of all
photosynthesis occurs).
But, we replace our forests with cities,
highways & golf courses.
Stop destroying forests,
and grow more trees.
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15 Aug
2010
19
Jan 2010
The forest cover is already too small
to help reducing global warming.
How long does it take to grow
a tree like this?
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15 Aug 2010
Option 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting
energy sources
What are they?
Nuclear
Hydro
Renewables (Geothermal, Solar,
Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass
and Biogas)
Muscle Power
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15 Aug 2010
World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
Fossil fuels
50%
Hydroelectric Power
40%
Nuclear Electric Power
30%
Electric Power from Renewables
20%
10%
0%
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
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15 Aug 2010
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls
Hydroelectric power
What are the problems with hydroelectric power?
barriers in the natural flow of a river prevents fish from
migration, alters ecosystems, and threatens the livelihoods of
local communities
the world's 52,000 largest dams release 104 million metric
tons of methane (a greenhouse gas) annually
hydropower is not renewable, because reservoirs fill up with
sediment and cost billions to dredge
failure of a dam will have catastrophic consequences
loss of land as well as flooding of areas such as natural
habitats and existing settlements
The future generations must pay for destroying dams
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15 Aug 2010
Is it a sustainable form of energy?
Hydroelectric power
The Elwha Dam, a 33 m high dam on the Olympic Peninsula
in Washington state, is one of two huge dams built in the early
1900s and set to be removed in 2012.
Removal of dam
will restore
the fish habitats,
will create an
additional
715 acres of
terrestrial
vegetation, and
improve elk
habitats.
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15 Aug 2010
estimated cost
$308 million ± 15%
Solar Energy – Photovoltaic Cells
Inorganic Solar Cells
2nd Generation
Thin-film
Bulk
3rd Generation
Materials
Germanium
Silicon
CIS
CIGS
Silicon
Amorphous
Silicon
Mono-crystalline
CdTe
Poly-crystalline
Ribbon
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15 Aug 2010
GaAs
Light
absorbing dyes
Nonocrystalline
Silicon
Solar Energy – Photovoltaic Cells
Inorganic Solar Cells
2nd Generation
Thin-film
Bulk
Processing silica (SiO2) to produce silicon is a very high
rd Generation
3
Silicon
energy process, and it takes over two years
for a
Materialsas much energy as was
conventional solar cell to generate
Germanium used
Silicon
to make the silicon
CISit contains.
Amorphous
Silicon
CIGS (charcoal) and
Silicon is produced by reacting carbon
silica
Mono-crystalline
at a temperature around 1700 deg C.
CdTe
Poly-crystalline
And,
1.5 tonnes of CO2 is emittedGaAs
for each tonne
Nonocrystalline
of silicon
(about 98% pure) produced.
Silicon
Ribbon
Light
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absorbing dyes
15 Aug 2010
Direct CO2 emissions from burning
(in grams CO2 equivalent / kWh)
1400
Upper range
Lower range
1200
1000
1017
790
800
575
600
362
400
200
0
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IAEA2000
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Solar PV
Wind
Nuclear
Indirect CO2 emissions from life cycle
(in grams CO2 equivalent / kWh)
1400
1306
Upper range
Lower range
1200
966
1000
800
688
600
439
400
280
236
200
4
0
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15 Aug 2010
IAEA2000
Coal
Gas
Hydro
100
Solar PV
48 10
21 9
Wind
Nuclear
Comparing Sri Lanka with USA
Sri Lanka
Human Development
Index (HDI) 2005
0.743
Ecological Footprint
(EF, defined on next
1 gha
page) 2005 per capita
CO2 emissions per
0.16
capita in 2004
tonnes of C
Electricity consumption
420
per capita in 2004
kW-hr
GDP per capita
3,896
R. Shanthini in 2006
PPP US $
15 Aug 2010
USA
0.951
9.4 gha
5.62
tonnes of C
14,240
kW-hr
43,968
PPP US$
Ecological Footprint (EF)
• EF measures (in global hectares) how much land
and water area a human population requires to
produce the resource it consumes and to absorb its
wastes, using prevailing technology.
• EF does not include an economic indicator.
A global hectare (gha) is a common unit that encompasses the
average productivity of all the biologically productive land and
sea area in the world in a given year. Biologically productive
areas include cropland, forest and fishing grounds, and do not
include deserts, glaciers and the open ocean.
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15 Aug 2010
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/page/
frequently_asked_questions/#method1
Biocapacity
• Biocapacity is shorthand for biological capacity,
which is the ability of an ecosystem to produce
useful biological materials and to absorb wastes
generated by humans.
Sustainable global EF per capita
= Total Biocapacity per capita
= 13.4/6.8 ≈ 2 gha ( ≈ 5 acres)
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org
For Sri Lanka
Built-up Land
Carbon Footprint
Fishing Ground Footprint
Biocapacity
(gha per capita)
Forest Footprint
EF2005 (gha
per capita)
Grazing Footprint
Cropland Footprint
Total
0
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15 Aug 2010
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org
For USA
Built-up Land
Carbon Footprint
Fishing Ground Footprint
Biocapacity
(gha per capita)
Forest Footprint
EF2005 (gha
per capita)
Grazing Footprint
Cropland Footprint
Total
0
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15 Aug 2010
2
4
6
8
10
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org
EF is 1.3 in 2005. That is to say we need 1.3 planets to
provide the resources we use and absorb our waste.
This means, in 2005, it took the Earth one year and four
months to regenerate what we use in a year.
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org
EF will be 2 by the mid 2030 if current population
and consumption trends continue according to
moderate UN scenarios.
It means by the mid 2030s we will need the
equivalent of 2 Earths to support us.
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org
Option 3: Reduce Population
More people
More pollution
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15 Aug 2010
Electricity use in 2006
If you are in USA,
you will be lighting
18.5 bulbs, each
with 200 W power
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15 Aug 2010
If you are in China,
you will be lighting
3 bulbs, each with
200 W power
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
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15 Aug 2010
Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2005
International $)
in 2005
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Low income
Lower middle
income
Upper middle
income
High income
CO2 (metric
tons per capita)
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15 Aug 2010
Population
GDP per
capita, PPP
(const 2005
International $)
in 2005
CO2 emissions per capita has
stronger links with GDP per
capita than with population.
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15 Aug 2010
“We cannot solve
our problems with
the same ways of
thinking that
produced them.”
Albert Einstein
End of Part II
(short Break)
R. Shanthini
15 Aug 2010