Transcript Slide 1

Maastricht Globalisation Index (MGI) variables
Political Domain:
- Number of in-country embassies and high commissions
- Number of memberships in international organizations
- Trade in conventional arms as a share of military spending
Economic domain:
- Trade (imports + exports) of goods and services as a
share of GDP
- Gross foreign direct stocks (FDI) as a share of GDP
- Gross private capital flows as a share of GDP
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
Maastricht Globalisation Index (MGI) variables contd
Social & Cultural Domain:
- Migrants (who changes their country of usual residence
per 100 inhabitant)
- Tourism (international arrivals + departures
per 100 inhabitants)
Technological Domain:
- Phone (incoming + outgoing international telephone
traffic in minutes per capita)
- Internet users as a share of population
Ecological Domain:
- Eco footprint (ecological deficit in global ha)
R. Shanthini
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R. Shanthini
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Maastricht Globalisation Index (MGI)
versus
Sustainability Indices
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17 Feb 2013
Sustainability Indices considered:
Human Development Index (HDI)
Environmental Performance Index (EPI)
- reducing environmental stresses to human health
- promoting ecosystem vitality and sound natural resource
management.
Global Environment Facility (GEF) Benefits Index (GBI)
- biodiversity potential
Responsible Competitiveness Index (RCI)
- countries efforts to promote responsible business practices
Sustainable Society Index (SSI)
- integrates various aspects of sustainability and quality of
life of a national society in a simple and transparent
way, consisting of personal development, clean
environment, well-balanced society, sustainable use of
resources, and sustainable world.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
Spearman‘s correlations for
MGI and the sustainability indices:
HDI
EPI
GBI
RCI
SSI
0.759**
0.170
0.795**
0.628**
–0.291*
Political
0.447**
0.286**
0.086
0.369**
–0.051
Economical
0.413**
0.376**
–0.404** 0.406**
0.202*
Social & cultural
0.724**
0.631**
–0.492** 0.682**
0.247**
Technological
0.906**
0.817**
–0.228*
0.869**
0.349**
Ecological
0.356**
0.202*
–0.311**
0.319**
0.021
MGI
MGI domains
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Explain the lack of (or low) relationship
between the level of globalisation and the
biodiversity potential (measured by GBI):
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Explain the lack of (or low) relationship
between Society Sustainability Index (SSI)
and the level of globalisation:
As the SSI is the most comprehensive index, it is
likely that both positive and negative implications of
globalisation are reflected in the sub-indicators of
the SSI.
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17 Feb 2013
2010 KOF Index of Globalization
Weights
Economic Globalization
[37%]
Social Globalization
[39%]
Political Globalization
[25%]
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2010 KOF Index of Globalization
Weights
Economic Globalization
[37%]
i) Actual Flows
(50%)
Trade (% of GDP)
(19%)
Foreign Direct Investment, flows (% of GDP)
(20%)
Foreign Direct Investment, stocks (% of GDP)
(24%)
Portfolio Investment (% of GDP)
(17%)
Income Payments to Foreign Nationals (% of GDP) (20%)
ii) Restrictions
(50%)
Hidden Import Barriers
(22%)
Mean Tariff Rate
(28%)
Taxes on International Trade (% of current revenue)(27%)
Capital Account Restrictions
(22%)
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17 Feb 2013
2010 KOF Index of Globalization
Weights
Social Globalization
[39%]
i) Data on Personal Contact
Telephone Traffic
Transfers (% of GDP)
International Tourism
Foreign Population (% of total population)
International letters (per capita)
(33%)
(26%)
(3%)
(26%)
(20%)
(25%)
ii) Data on Information Flows
Internet Users (per 1000 people)
Television (per 1000 people)
Trade in Newspapers (% of GDP)
(36%)
(36%)
(36%)
(28%)
iii) Data on Cultural Proximity
Number of McDonald's Restaurants (per capita)
Number of Ikea (per capita)
Trade in books (% of GDP)
(31%)
(43%)
(44%)
(12%)
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2010 KOF Index of Globalization
Political Globalization
Embassies in Country
Membership in International Organizations
Participation in U.N. Security Council Missions
International Treaties
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Weights
[25%]
(25%)
(28%)
(22%)
(25%)
Alternative world scenarios to achieve sustainability:
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17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Conventional Worlds:
Global system of the 21st century evolves
- without major surprises,
- sharp discontinuities
- or fundamental transformations
in the basis for human civilization.
Dominant values and institutions shape the future.
World economy grows rapidly.
Developing countries gradually converge toward the
norms set by highly industrialized countries.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Conventional Worlds – Market Forces (MF):
MF incorporates
- mid-range population projection (40% expansion by 2050)
- mid-range development projection (global economy
expands over three-fold by 2050, eightfold by 2100)
- typical technological change assumptions.
MF is constructed as a future in which free trade and
deregulation drive growth.
The problem of resolving the social and environmental
stress arising from global population and economic growth
is left to the self-correcting logic of competitive markets.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Conventional Worlds – Policy Reform (PR):
PR assumes the emergence of a massive government-led
effort achieves sustainability without major changes in the
state-centric international order, modern institutional
structures, and consumerist values.
Strong and harmonized policies are implemented that, by
redirecting the world economy and promoting technological
innovation, are able to achieve internationally recognized
goals for
- poverty reduction,
- climate change stabilization,
- ecosystem preservation,
- freshwater protection, and
- pollution control.
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17 Feb 2013
If the market adaptations and policy
reforms of Conventional Worlds were to
prove insufficient for redirecting
development away from destabilization,
the global trajectory could move in an
unwelcome direction.
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Barbarization:
Barbarization scenarios envision the grim possibility
that the social, economic and moral underpinnings
of civilization deteriorate, as emerging problems
overwhelm the coping capacity of both markets and
policy reforms.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Barbarization – Fortress World:
Fortress World features an authoritarian response to the
threat of breakdown.
Ensconced in protected enclaves, elites safeguard their
privilege by controlling an impoverished majority and
managing critical natural resources, while outside the
fortress there is repression, environmental destruction
and misery.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Barbarization – Fortress World:
In our troubled times, Fortress World seems the true
(business-as-usual) scenario to many.
In this dark vision, the global archipelago of connected
fortresses seeks to control a damaged environment and
restive population.
Authorities employ geo-engineering techniques to
stabilize the global climate, while dispatching (peacekeeping) militia to multiple hotspots in an attempt to
quell social conflict and mass migration.
But the results are mixed: emergency measures and
spotty infrastructure investment cannot keep pace with
habitat loss and climate change, nor provide adequate
food and water to desperate billions.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Barbarization – Breakdown:
In this scenario, crises combine and spin out of control,
leading to unbridled conflict, institutional disintegration
and economic collapse.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
GREAT TRANSITIONS:
Great Transitions explore visionary solutions to the
sustainability challenge, including new socioeconomic
arrangements and fundamental changes in values.
They depict a transition to a society that preserves
natural systems, provides high levels of welfare through
material sufficiency and equitable distribution, and
enjoys a strong sense of social solidarity.
Population levels are stabilized at moderate levels and
material flows through the economy are radically
reduced through lower consumerism and massive use
of green technologies.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
GREAT TRANSITIONS:
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
Great Transition envisions a values-led change in the guiding
paradigm of global development.
The transformation is catalyzed by the (push of) deepening
crises and the (pull of) desire for a just, sustainable, and
planetary civilization.
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
A pluralistic transnational world order coalesces as a growing
cultural and political movement of global citizens spurs the
establishment of effective governance institutions.
The new paradigm is rooted in a triad of ascendant values:
human solidarity
ecological resilience
quality of life
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
Less consumerist lifestyles moderate the growth thrust
of Conventional Worlds scenarios, as notions of the
good life turn toward qualitative dimensions of wellbeing:
creativity
leisure
relationships
community engagement
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
Population stabilizes more rapidly than in other scenarios as
more equal gender roles and universal access to education
and health care services lower birth rates in developing
countries.
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GREAT TRANSITIONS:
The world approaches a steady-state economy with
incomes reaching about $30,000 per person by 2100,
three times the current average.
Although this figure is well below the $50,000 of
Conventional Worlds, the egalitarian income distributions
of Great Transition leave most people far better off,
while the improved social cohesion reduces conflict.
In this deeply sustainable vision, crises still linger, but the
world is able to confront them with enhanced institutions
for reconciliation and cooperation.
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17 Feb 2013
GREAT TRANSITIONS – Eco-Communalism:
The Eco-Communalism variant incorporates the green
vision of bio-regionalism, localism, face-to-face democracy,
small technology and economic autarky.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
GREAT TRANSITIONS – The New Sustainablity Paradigm:
This variant shares some of the goals of the EcoCommunalism scenarios, but would seek to change the
character of the urban, industrial situation (rather than to
replace it), to build a more humane and equitable global
civilization rather than retreat into localism.
R. Shanthini
17 Feb 2013
http://www.tellus.org/programs/taxonomy.html
Year in which conventional fossil fuels exhausted:
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
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Market
Forces
2034
2047
Policy
Reform
2071
2088
Fortress
World
2034
2049
Great
Transition
>2105
>2123
Social dimensions of sustainability:
Enhance social stability and resilience
Enhance social cohesion
Democratize governance of key institutions
Strengthen cultural diversity
Reduce poverty and hunger
Decrease income and wealth disparities
Raise income to a sufficient level for all
Stabilize then reduce population
Improve access to adequate nutrition, sanitation, and freshwater
De-materialize lifestyles
Moderate materialistic values
Reduce formal work time
Promote quality of life activities
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Environmental and resource dimensions of sustainability:
Mitigate greenhouse gas emissions
Reduce combustion of fossil-fuels and sequester CO2 emissions
Minimize then reverse emissions from land-use changes
Reduce other greenhouse gas emissions
Protect natural resources
Reduce air and water pollution
Eliminate emissions of toxic chemicals
Reduce mineral flows through economy, and recycle intensively
Reduce water stress
Preserve habitats
Reduce urban sprawl
Protect forests and other ecosystems
Fish sustainably
Promote ecological agriculture
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Selected sustainability measures in 2005
POVERTY
Chronic hunger
893 millions
CLIMATE
CO2 concentration
380 ppm
FRESHWATER
People in water stress
ECOSYSTEM PRESSURE
Deforestation
Land degradation
Marine over-fishing
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1.73 billions
Varies by region
Varies by region
Pervasive
Selected sustainability targets
POVERTY
Chronic hunger
CLIMATE
CO2 concentration
< 350 ppm by 2100
Warming
< 2.0 deg C
Cumulative CO2 emissions since 2005 < 265 GtC
FRESHWATER
People in water stress
ECOSYSTEM PRESSURE
Deforestation
Land degradation
Marine over-fishing
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17 Feb 2013
56 millions in 2100
< 2 billions
slow and reverse
slow and reverse
slow and restore stocks