Transcript Dark scenarios - European Foresight

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology
Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making
28th- 29th September 2006
Dark Scenarios as a tool for FTA:
Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence
(SWAMI)
Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre
DG JRC IPTS – ICT Unit
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
IPTS – ICT Unit: Research agenda
Problem and policy driven:
What can ICT do for the broader socio-economic challenges of the EU (focus
on Lisbon goals)?
Prospective:
– How to develop Europe into a knowledge society?
– What are the mid to long term R&D strategies needs with regard to
European innovation in ICT and
– What are emerging ICT driven areas Europe should be active in?
Scientific:
Understanding how technical inventions in ICT become successful
innovation/societal realities
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
IPTS – ICT Unit: Research activities
IS & Growth
– Competitiveness of the ICT R&D system in Europe
– IST based growth models and challenges (regional, global/Asia and NMS)
E-Applications
– ICTs for Inclusion and Quality of Life
– The future of eServices – Web 2.0 – Proactive role of users
Techno-Economic Foresight in the Information Society (TEFIS)
– European Prospective in the Information Society (EPIS)
– e-Identity charter
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Introducing Ambient Intelligence
AmI is convergence of
Ubiquitous Computing
• Not only pc but also non-pc devices (everyday objects);
• These devices will ‘sense’;
• These devices will be ‘smart’;
Ubiquitous Communication
• These devices will ‘communicate’;
• These devices will be ‘connected’
Ubiquitous Interfaces
• Intelligent User Friendly Interfaces
• Pro-active, context-aware and personalised
ISTAG vision: human-centred computing at the service of mankind
ISTAG Scenarios on AmI (2000) - AmI in FP6 (2002-2006)
Emergent property – next generation ICT
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Project (2005-2006)
 Identify and analyse the SELT issues related to identity, privacy
and security in the future Ambient Intelligence (AmI)
Dark scenario objectives

Identify and highlight potential vulnerabilities and associated threats

Develop/propose safeguards to address vulnerabilities and threats
The need to develop dark scenarios

Contrast predominance of “bright scenarios” and bright futures

ICT – AmI not the domain of traditional risk analysis and assessment

Less risky today but not in knowledge-based information society

Alert policy makers and RTD actors as to the need to develop safeguards
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Support the realisation of AmI
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Dark Scenarios methodology
No unique methodology
 Not predicting or forecasting the future

Looking for an understanding as to anticipate and work towards the futures

A tool for stimulating debate, structuring thinking, ‘what if’ games, aiding in
synthesis, and raising awareness intuitively

Approach similar to mainstream scenario exercises (iterative and analytical)
Specific to SWAMI

Alternative visions of future we do NOT want to realize

No doom scenarios where everything goes wrong
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Scenarios “not only” end in themselves “but also” an instrument for safeguards

Realistic & plausible scenarios: extrapolate from current trends both in terms of
situations and in terms of technologies…
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
SWAMI Scenario Approach
Literature review Experts workshop Internal workshop Drafting scenarios
Technology check
Scenario stories
Reality check
Scenario analysis
Situations
AmI technologies AmI applications
Issues
Drivers
Legal
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Four Dark Scenarios
Individual / micro level
Scenario 1: A typical family
(at home, at work, outdoors)
Private Sphere / Private concerns
Scenario 3: Corporate Boardroom
& court-case
(data aggregator)
Scenario 2: Seniors on a journey
(travel and health issues)
Public Sphere / Public concerns
Scenario 4: Risk Society
(Digital Divide, environment,
traffic & crowd management)
Society / macro level
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 1: a Typical Family
Story overview
A typical family in 3 different but blurring environments at Home, at Work and
also outdoors, making use of AmI devices and services. System vulnerabilities and
crime opportunities are exploited as the family leads an everyday life.
Different scenes
Scene 1 – At Home: Digital blackmail, unfounded suspicions due to extensive profiling,
impacts on work and home environments.
Scene 2 – At Work: Shopping while at work, data laundering, accidental mistake and
consequences.
Scene 3 – At the Park: Location-based advertising, irritation, consequences,
dependence on AmI, exclusion; erroneous identification, AmI facilitated crime,
usability/costs.
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 2: Seniors on a journey
Story overview
Focuses on senior citizens and their health related needs while on a bus tour abroad.
An exploited vulnerability in the traffic system causes an accident, raising many
different issues such as: individual needs vs. economies of scale; reliance on AmI
infrastructure; equal and fair access, usability and accessibility principles.
Different scenes
Scene 1 - News from the police report: Senior citizen dies after bus accident
Scene 2 - Travel preparation and check-in procedure for public transportation
Scene 3 - Traffic supported by ambient intelligence
Scene 4 - Emergency situation
Scene 5 - Ambient intelligence and medical care
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 3: Corporate Boardroom
Story overview
A ‘Data Aggregator’ successfully corners the data market for public and private
sector clients until their business model is exposed to society-at-large through
insider data theft, and fraudulent data use. Media reports uncover the scandal
and a court case puts a stop to abuse. However, it will take the victims much
more time to gain control over their personal data that have been exposed.
Different scenes
Scene 1 – Management Board Meeting: data aggregation and mining, data
theft, dependency on AmI infrastructure, risks in business setting.
Scene 2 – The Court case: future legal framework does not allow misuse of
abuse of data collected, democratic principles prevail.
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenario 4: Risk Society
Story overview
Different stories on likely adverse consequences of AmI for society at large
including public action against personalised profiling, global scale digital
environmental divides and public life disruptions. In all cases AmI diffusion
is both widening and bridging existing gaps.
Different scenes
Scene 1 – The Anti-Personalised Profiling Action Group (APPAG).
Scene 2 – AmI Divides
Scene 3 – Public Life Disrupted by Virus Attack
Scene 4 - AmI-system aided mass risk management
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Contents of dark scenarios
DarkScen1
DarkScen2
DarkScen3
DarkScen4
Technology
/Devices
Embedded tags; home
sensors; biometrics;
personal wrist
communicator
Sensors / actuators;
interfaces; comms;
Health monitoring
devices.
Biometrics;
displays; voice
activated cmds;
surveillance;
location implants;
RFIDs; sensors &
actuators.
Smart dust; positioning
sensors; data mining; traffic
routing; comms networks.
Applications
Security; spy ware;
surveillance;
tracking/monitoring
LBS, DRM.
Communication
Mngt system;
support for elderly;
health monitoring
systems.
Immigration
control;
personalisation;
profiling; targeted
marketing; counterterrorism.
Personalisation;
environmental monitoring;
security; anti-virus; crowd
management.
Issues
Loss of control;
disproportionate
reactions due to
profiling; exclusion,
human factors in
security.
Dependence; loss of
control; privacy;
exclusion; complex
risk assessment;
identity; crime;
Power
Concentration;
illusion of security;
digital divide; trust;
differences in legal
regimes.
Personalised vs. group
profiling; victimisation;
digital divide; loss of
control; dependency.
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenarios: Safeguards
A multiplicity of threats & vulnerabilities -> multiplicity of safeguards
Technological
Minimal data collection, transmission and storage
Data and software security
Privacy protection in networking
Authorisation and access control
Socio-economic
Standards, Audits
Trust
Guidelines for ICT research
Accessibility and social inclusion
Raising public awareness
Legal and regulatory
Preserving the core of privacy and other human rights
Data protection and security
Consumer protection law and electronic commerce
Interoperability and international co-operation
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Impact dark scenarios…
Recommendations

Formalisation of risk assessment / management process with regard to the
risks posed by AmI to security and privacy.
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Investment in an awareness campaign specifically focused on AmI.
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Review of the existing legal and regulatory framework with respect to
AmI.

Proactive in the development of a more comprehensive international cooperation framework

Ensuring the projects that it funds take questions of privacy, security and
trust into account
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenarios: Conclusions (1/2)
Zero-risk society is not possible or desirable
Issues are widespread: Varied, Wide and Deep
• Varied: AmI infrastructure touches upon all aspects of everyday life
• Wide: Dark situations can encompass “dark feelings” (ranging from irksome to
burdensome; and entail annoyance and embarrassment) but also “dark experiences” such as
theft, harassment, accidents etc.
• Deep: Impact can be severe (e.g. digital divide) and difficult to revoke (e.g.ID Theft)
Safeguards need to be widespread as well: SELT
Impact
• Policymakers
• RTD and designers
• Wider audience
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Dark scenarios: Conclusions (2/2)
Specific
• Few qualitatively new risks identified
• Current behavioural patterns will induce more risk in tomorrow’s AmI world:
ICTs – AmI will become more “risky”
Methodological
• Successfully highlighted potential vulnerabilities & associated threats
• More than appealing scripts: detailed scenario analysis in terms of technologies
/devices, applications, drivers, issues, legal analysis
• Dark scenarios need to be realistic and plausible: ‘reality and technology’ checks
• ‘Delicate’ exercise: how dark can you be?
• Maybe not dark scenarios but just realistic ones ….
SWAMI Dark Scenarios
Thank you
IPTS Team: Y.Punie, I.Maghiros & S.Delaitre
[email protected]
SWAMI Consortium
ISI-Fraunhofer, VUB, VTT, Trilateral research & IPTS
http://swami.jrc.es