Transcript Unido Industrial Competitiveness and Policy

Industrial Policy Programme and
Industrial Competitiveness Report
Findings
Presentation to DPG-PSD
Tuesday, 11th December 2012
Andrea Antonelli – UNIDO Dar es Salaam
Brian McCrohan – UNIDO Consultant
Falecia Massacky – Industrial Intelligence Group
1
Presentation Outline
• Background UNIDO Industrial Policy Programme
(IPP)
• The Tanzania Industrial Competitiveness Report
(TICR) and main findings
• Selected theoretical questions and answers from
TICR for discussion with the PSD Group
• Selected Policy Recommendations
• Conclusions/discussions
2
UNIDO IPP: Background
• The Tanzania Industrial Competitiveness Report (TICR) is an
important output of the UNIDO Industrial Policy Programme
(IPP), part of the UNIDO Country Programme aligned with
UNDAP (2011-2015)
• IPP contributing to UNDAP Outcome 1 Cluster I: Key national
institutions develop/enhance evidence-based pro-poor economic
development policies and strategies
• Objective: The IPP aims at “Building institutional capacities
for industrial policy design, implementation, monitoring and
evaluation”
• Rationale: Weak institutional capacity, lack of information and
poor sector dialogue lead to often flawed policy choices
3
UNIDO IPP/CP and GoT Plans
MKUKUTA II
UNITED NATIONS DEVELOPMENT
ASSISTANCE PLAN (UNDAP) 2011-2015
2011-2015
UNIDO COUNTRY PROGRAMME
2011-2015
(Economic Growth and Environment
)
WGs
2010/112014/15
MKUZA II (NGRSP)
I
I
D
S
• Unleashing
Growth
FYDP I
Potential
2011-2015
• Nurturing an
industrial
FYDP II
economy
2016-2020
• Realizing
competitive
ness led
FYDP III
export
2021-2025
growth
L
T
P
P
V
I
S
I
O
N
2
0
2
5
4
IPP: The Approach
5
IPP: Planned Tangible Deliverables
• National implementation/competitiveness intelligence unit
set and trained at MIT
• Publication of key analytical inputs for industrial policy
making, including the TICR, Sectoral Competitiveness and
Value Chain Studies, Policy Briefs and Assessment of
Business Environment for Industrial Activity (e.g.
transactions costs)
• Industrial observatory (UNIDO’s Industrial
Competitiveness Intelligence System), if funds allow
• Review of Industrial Strategy/Policy if needed
• Revised IIDS Action Plan/Implementation Roadmap
6
TICR 2012: background, objectives
• The report was a collaborative effort by UNIDO trainees under
guidance. The contributions came from: MIT, POPC, UDSM,
ZMTIM, REPOA, STIPRO and university graduates
• The report seeks to provide a quantitative background on the
current competitiveness of Tanzanian industry
• TICR aims at facilitating the policy process from planning to
implementation
• The report does not look at the hard solutions but seeks to
affect the political environment and institutional framework
• Challenges to industrial development are explored
• Policy recommendations are outlined for industrialization
7
Key Findings on industrial Competitiveness
• Industry in Tanzania remains quite limited and concentrated in few
sectors and regions.
• Tanzania’s MVA has grown significantly in the last decade (above 8
percent per year) but the industrial base of Tanzania remains one of
the lowest in the world (MVA per capita of only US$ 44).
• Manufacturing Exports Performance has been very high but has been
driven by resource based products (metals, minerals) and has not had
the desired benefit for MVA and other linkages to the economy.
• There has been little structural change within the industry- The
growing economy is not translated into equitable growth, job creation
and poverty reduction.
8
Selected Questions on market potential for
Tanzania manufactured products
• Can Tanzania promote real economic growth from the
value addition of the resource based products?
• What are the key products and market opportunities that
Tanzania has?
• Is trade integration really a strategic direction for
Tanzania?
9
Structure of manufactured exports by technology
classification for Tanzania and comparators, 2010
10
Resource-based Industrialization
11
Substituting manufactured imports from where?
12
Other Questions Raised
• Can Tanzania promote real economic growth
from the value addition of the resource based
products?
• What are the key products and market
opportunities that we have?
• Is trade integration really a strategic direction
for Tanzania?
13
Step-wise market exploitation
14
Markets for manufactured products in Tanzania’s
landlocked neighbours, 2000-2010
15
Tanzania’s share in selected global emerging
markets for manufactures, 2000-2010
16
Markets for Tanzania’s top-10 resource-based
manufactured exports, 2010
17
Other Questions Raised
• Can Tanzania promote real economic growth
from the value addition of the resource based
products?
• What are the key products and market
opportunities that we have?
• Is trade integration really a strategic direction
for Tanzania?
18
Regional Integration
• RI can act as a trigger for industrial
development through enhanced
openness intra-regional trade
• RI can foster competition, give access to
wider markets, help diversify investment
and production
• What has Regional Integration done for
Tanzanian industry?
19
Regional Integration
20
Strong regional competitors: KNY & SA
21
Market growth and Tanzania’s presence in EAC & SADC
markets for manufactured products 2000-2010
22
POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
23
Policy Recommendations
The emergence of a competitive manufacturing sector involves shortmedium and long term strategies:
1. Short-term: involves a gradual shift from the current niche status of
manufacturing towards increased value addition in agro-processing,
accompanied by a rapid expansion of a few existing low-technology,
labor intensive activities.
2. Medium-term: manufacturing could be clustered around mineral
extraction projects which already exist or are currently in the startup
phase, by strengthening forward and backward linkages to relevant
manufacturing sectors.
3. Long-term: could eventually witness the emergence of a more
diversified and more sophisticated internationally competitive
manufacturing sector.
24
Practical Conceptualization
• Need for good evidence (e.g. industrial intelligence)
• Coherence, Leadership and Coordination at national level
• Consistency at regional/local level (e.g. land issue)
• Skills development through education, science technology
and innovation as a long term strategy
25