Transcript UNIDO`s-Presentation_European

Programaand
ONUDI
- LACBranch
Research
Statistics
Reunión de Expertos
ONUDI/GRULAC
Programa Estratégico Regional
15-17 Noviembre
2006
1
Sala de Conferencias II, 7 piso, Edificio C, VIC, Viena
“Selected Development Challenges –
Contribution to Formulation of the
Strategic Regional Programme for Latin
America 2007-2009”
S. Miranda-da-Cruz
Director – Research & Statistics
Latin American Expert Group Meeting
Vienna, Austria – 15-17 November 2006
Executive Summary
(1) Within the last 50 years few economies have been able
to overcome the challenges of development & become
really competitive. In those few cases there are concrete
indications that industry has played a key role;
(2) Although the role of industry in accelerating growth
needs to be better understood, there are also indications
that industrial policies applied under the appropriate
framework have a major impact in the process;
(3) To increase the knowledge of the appropriate
framework & policies for industrial growth UNIDO has
been carrying out several activities based on rigorous
theoretical & methodologically advanced empirical analyses;
(4) As a result of the analyses selected development
challenges are shown as well as their linkage to the
proposed “Strategic Regional Programme for Latin America” .
Sinopsis
(1) En los últimos 50 años pocas economías han logrado
superar los retos al desarrollo alcanzando así real
competitividad. Dichos casos proporcionan índices concretos
del importante papel jugado por la industria;
(2) Aunque se requieren más análisis acerca del papel de la
industria como acelerador del crecimiento, existen claras
indicaciones del impacto trascendental de las políticas
industriales aplicadas bajo el marco apropiado;
(3) Para mejorar el conocimiento sobre el marco y las
políticas apropiadas para el crecimiento industrial la
ONUDI desarrolla actividades basadas en rigurosos análisis
teóricos y empíricos metodológicamente avanzados;
(4) Como resultado de estos análisis, se exponen retos al
desarrollo así como su vínculo con el “Programa Regional
Estratégico para América Latina” propuesto.
Global Trade at a Glance – (Billion US$)
Hong Kong
Malaysia
ROK
Singapore
Taiwan/PRC
MDGs
2,593
ASIA
2,457
Exp.
8,974
1,123
3,827
NORTH
AMERICA
WESTERN
EUROPE
1,799
3,747
Imp.
9,244
459
LATIN
AMERICA
432
436
MIDDLE
EAST
353
Source: UNCTAD 2004; UNIDO-BO Analysis – (app. data)
226
AFRICA
199
311
Central &
East. Europe/
Baltic St./ CIS
257
Selected Aspects of an Economic Process
Economic Growth
Rise over time in per capita income (through productivity growth)
1. Capital & 2. Technical Changes
(i) Allocation of prod. factors; & (ii) Increase of productivity
(Incentives/Policies & Market Forces)
Integration into international economy
(i) Structural Changes;
(ii) Sustained Nature (econ./; social; environment);
(iii) Synergies & Mutual Reinforcement
Industrial Perspective:
Expansion & dev. of ind. sector over time period that benefits economy
& society at large
Rigorous Theoretical & Methodologically
Advanced Empirical Analyses
Policy Making
3
Cycle of Industrial Policy Formulation,
Implementation & Evaluation
Structural
changes
(1)
Diagnosis/
Assessment
(2)
Projects &
Programmes
Government
Objectives
Analysis of Impact
of Industrial Policy
Models
Nonrecommendable
projects
(3)
Ind. Policy
Models
Extraction of rationale
behind sectoral/regional
experiences
7
UNIDO & Sustainable Industrial
Development - SID
I. Economic
Ability to Sustain Economic Growth;
II. Social - Population (Employment)
Ability to growth at a rate that can absorb the labour
force of the country & offer equal opportunities to all;
III. Environmental
Ability to reach economic & social targets (challenges)
IV
without disrupting environment.
IV. Governance
Ability to use good public & corporate governance
• New Pheaton Factory in Germany.pps
9
The South Africa Auto Sector
10
“The World Technology Frontier”
The Shift of the Frontier over Time
World Technology Frontiers, 1960 and 2000
World
Output per Worker
120000
Frontier
2000
100000
Tech.
Acquisition
80000
60000
40000
Frontier
1960
20000
0
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
Capital per Worker
11
Source: UNIDO – Isaksson, 2005
Contribution # 1 to Formulation of the
Strategic Reg. Programme for LA 2007-2009”
I – Productivity Performance
(i) World Productivity Database;
(ii) Measurement of Manufacturing Productivity;
(iii) Health, Ind. Development & Productivity Growth;
(iv) World Productivity Report
12
Contributions # 2 & # 3 to Formulation of the
Strategic Reg. Programme for LA 2007-2009”
II – Ind., Trade, Investments & Growth
(i) Ind., Trade & Growth I: Theory & Some Evidences
(ii) Ind., Trade & Growth II: The Role of Human
Capital/Knowledge
(iii) FDI & Industrial Development
III – Country & Regional Assessments
(i) Prospects for Sustainable Industrial Growth
… it seems that the most effective way to assess
the “Prospects for Sustainable Industrial
Growth” is through a combination of analysis
involving information at the “MACRO” & at the
“SECTORAL” (up to“MICRO”) levels…
MACRO
Perspective
UNIDO
Member
States
SECTORAL
(Sectoral Analysis)
Perspective
Prospects for Sustainable Industrial Growth
Analytical Framework
Assessment based on following parameters:



UNIDO Competitive Ind. Performance Index
Social characteristics (Population, poverty, health and literacy)
Physical characteristics
(Territorial extension, land availability, machinery, roads, telephone mainlines)





Macroeconomic analysis
(GDP growth, employment, inflation, balance of payments, productivity)
Trade analysis (Manufactured imports and exports, trade balance)
Industrial production (MVA)
Africa
Asia
Science & Technology (S&T)
Europe/CSI
(R & D, royalties, imported capital goods, scientific journals) Latin America
(i) Colombia
Environment & Energy
15
(ii) Ecuador
Source: UNIDO - Analysis – (2006)
Challenges on Sustainable Development
The Process of Catching Up Technologically
Share of MHT Exports in Total Manufacturing
Exports (%)
(Source: UNIDO Industrial Development Report 2002/2003)
Cont. # 4 – Statistical Information & SCOREBOARD
90
1985
80
JPN
Degrees of difficulty:
1998
Linear
70
JPN
SGP
Exponential
MLY
KOR
TWN
60
THL
50
KOR
SGP
40
MLY
30
IDN
TWN
CPR
THL
20
10
IND
IDN
IND
CPR
0
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Share of Manufactured Exports in Total Exports (%)
90
100
The “Macro” Perspective
Scoreboard
1. INDICATION of the POSITION of the COUNTRY in TERMS
of MANUFACTURING in the INT’L SCENARIO
(i) Based on the UNIDO Industrial Development Scoreboard
2. COUNTRY ANALYSIS based on STATISTICAL & NONSTATISTICAL INFORMATION
(ii) Social characteristics (Population, poverty, health and literacy)
(iii) Physical characteristics
(Territorial extension, land availability, machinery, roads, telephone mainlines)
(iv) Macroeconomic analysis
(GDP growth, employment, inflation, balance of payments, productivity)
(v) Trade analysis (Manufactured imports and exports, trade balance)
(vi) Industrial production (Manufactured Value Added – MVA)
(vii) Science and Technology (S&T)
(R & D, royalties, imported capital goods, scientific journals)
(viii) Environment & Energy
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Environmental Sustainability
– Present & Future Requirements –
1. Land (soil/desertification);
2. Water;
3. Solid Wastes (& hazardous);
4. Air Emissions (CO2 & SO2);
5. Energy.
Source: UNIDO Analysis
(i) Int’l Env.
Conventions
&
(ii) Specific
Programmes
& Projects
18
Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO
Provider
Absorber/Adapter
Recipient
19
The ‘Energy Sector’ at UNIDO
(B) Energy Matrix at Year (X + 15-25)
(C) Energy
(D) Energy
Optimization
Cycle
Optimizatio
n Cycle
Use
Supply
(A) Energy Matrix at Year X (Present)
20
Source: UNIDO – Miranda-da-Cruz, 2006
The ‘Energy Sector’ at UNIDO
(1)
Diagnosis/
Assessmen
t
(C) Energy
(4)
Policy
Implementation
Use
Optimization
Cycle
(3)
Policy
Formulation
Source: UNIDO – Miranda-da-Cruz, 2006
(2) TechKnowledge
Absorption
&
Developmen
t
21
The ‘Energy Sector’ at UNIDO
(1)
Diagnosis/
Assessmen
t
(D) Energy
(4)
Policy
Implementation
Supply
Optimization
Cycle
(3)
Policy
Formulation
Source: UNIDO – Miranda-da-Cruz, 2006
(2) TechKnowledge
Absorption
&
Developmen
t
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S&T in Developing Countries
Tech-
Knowledge
Absorption &
Development
Human
Resources
Development
guided
Economic
Growth
Source: UNIDO Analysis
Retention of
HR
developed or
attracted
Selected Aspects of an Economic Process
Economic Growth
Rise over time in per capita income (through productivity growth)
1. Capital & 2. Technical Changes
(i) Allocation of prod. factors; & (ii) Increase of productivity
(Incentives/Policies & Market Forces)
Integration into international economy
(i) Structural Changes;
(ii) Sustained Nature (econ./; social; environment);
(iii) Synergies & Mutual Reinforcement
Industrial Perspective:
Expansion & dev. of ind. sector over time period that benefits economy
& society at large
Rigorous Theoretical & Methodologically
Advanced Empirical Analyses
Policy Making
3
Challenges on Sustainable Development
Parameters linked to SID
Activities in Science & Technology
(Competitiveness)
1.
2.
Aerospace/Satellite
Biotechnology
– Molecular Biology
3.
4.
5.
6.
Environment [& Energy]
Fine Chemistry
Fine Mechanics
Inf. Technology
7.
– Ceramics/Metals/Fibres
8.
Nutraceuticals (Health)
– Biotech. + Fine Chemistry
Medical Instrumentation
10. Microelectronics
11. Robotics [& Nano-tech.]
9.
– Microelectronics + Fine
Mechanics
– Telecommunication
– Microelectronics +
Software
New Materials
12.
Software
25
Source: UNIDO-BO Analysis, (2001)
Activities in Science & Technology –
TECHNICAL CHANGES (Ind. & S&T – I)
1. Aerospace/Satellite – (Precision Agriculture; Agro-industry
– Agro. Ind.; Environment; Climate Disaster Management);
2. Biotechnology – (Agriculture; Pharmaceutical Ind. – Ph. Ind.;
Agro-industry – Agro. Ind.);
3. Environment [& Energy] – All Ind. Manufacturing Sectors
(AIMS); Health “Industry”;
4. Fine Chemistry – (Chemical; Ph. Ind.; Agro. Ind. [Sugar]);
5. Fine Mechanics – (Pr. Control/Automation; Robotics; AIMS);
6. Information Technology – (Telecommunication; AIMS;
“Service Industry);
26
Source: UNIDO-BO Analysis, (2001)
Activities in Science & Technology –
TECHNICAL CHANGES (Ind. & S&T – II)
7. Medical Instrumentation
“Health Industry” (Preventive Medicine);
8. New Materials
Automotive; Energy Motor System; “Health Industry”; AgroIndustry (Non-food Agricultural manufactured Products);
9. Nutraceuticals - (“Health Ind.”/Preventive Medicine);
10. Microelectronics
Information; Automation (Process Control); AIMS;
11. Robotics [& Nano-tech.] - (Process Control;
Automation; AIMS; Health Industry)
12. Software - (Automation; AIMS; “Service Industry”)
27
Source: UNIDO-BO Analysis, (2001)
The ‘Agro-Industrial Sector’ at UNIDO
Source: UNIDO Analysis; (SMdC)
Trade
Transportation
Imports
Imports
Imports
Agricultural
&
Livestock
Production
Agricultural
&
Livestock
Processing
Processed &
Natural
Agricultural
& Livestock
Storage &
Distribution
Processed &
Natural
Agricultural
& Livestock
Consumption
Inputs:
Inputs:
Inputs:
Inputs:
(i) Agricultural
(i) Chemical;
(i) Chemical;
(i) Chemical;
(pesticides, herbicides, etc);
(ii) Natural Resources
(water, etc);
(iii) Packaging Materials
(ii) Biological;
(iii) Natural Resources
(water, etc);
(iv) Packaging Materials
(ii) Biological;
(iii) Natural Resources;
(iv) Packaging Materials;
etc.
(ii) Biological;
(iii) Natural Resources;
etc.
Exports
Trade
Exports
Trade
28
‘Agro-Ind. Sector’ & Quality Management at UNIDO
Source: UNIDO Analysis; (SMdC)
Transportation
Imports
Imports
Imports
Agricultural
&
Livestock
Production
Agricultural
&
Livestock
Processing
Processed &
Natural
Agricultural
& Livestock
Storage &
Distribution
Processed &
Natural
Agricultural
& Livestock
Consumption
Inputs:
Inputs:
Inputs:
Inputs:
(i) Agricultural
(i) Chemical;
(i) Chemical;
(i) Chemical;
(pesticides, herbicides, etc);
(ii) Natural Resources
(water, etc);
(iii) Packaging Materials
(ii) Biological;
(iii) Natural Resources
(water, etc);
(iv) Packaging Materials
(ii) Biological;
(iii) Natural Resources;
(iv) Packaging Materials;
etc.
(ii) Biological;
(iii) Natural Resources;
etc.
Exports
Exports
29
Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO
One source/one or more absorbers
Provider
Absorber/Adapter
Recipient
Ad.: Faster;
Des.: (i) Highly dependent on provider;
(ii) Less effective capacity build up
Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO
Multiple sources/one or more absorbers
Provider
Absorber/Adapter
Recipient
Ad.: (i) Less dependent on one provider;
(ii) More effective capacity build up;
Des.: Slower
Imp. of Int’l Environmental Conventions
Capacity Build Up
Tech-knowledge
Provider
Absorber/Adapter
UN
Multiple Sources
Recipient
UN
Ministry of
Environment &
other Ministries
Recipient
Enterprises
32
S&T in Developing Countries
1. Strong Government Leadership;
2. Strong Research Base;
3. Protection of IPR (Intellectual Property Rights);
4. Entrepreneurial Culture;
5. Ability to attract key People;
6. Access to Capital;
7. Access to Infra. Net. & Clusters;
8. Synergies & Mutual Reinforcement.
33
Source: UNIDO-BO Analysis under “MIT/GoC/UNIDO Programme” (Aug. 2002)
CyT en países en desarrollo
1. Fuerte liderazgo gubernamental;
2. Sólida base de investigación;
3. Protección del DPI (Derechos de Propiedad Intelectual);
4. Cultura empresarial;
5. Capacidad de atraer personas claves;
6. Acceso al capital;
7. Acceso a redes de infraestructura y clusters;
8. Sinergias y refuerzo mutuo.
34
Source: UNIDO-BO Analysis under “MIT/GoC/UNIDO Programme” (Aug. 2002)
Cycle of UNIDO’s Assistance
(High-level Advisor to Member States)
Structural
changes
Government
Objectives
High-level advisory
services
(1)
Diagnosis/
Assessment
Methodology
(3)
Advisory
Models
Nonrecommendable
projects
(2)
Projects &
Programmes
Extraction of rationale
behind sectoral/regional
experiences
Why Advisory
Models?
35
…Advisory Models as an effective
way to provoke impact in small &
particularly in medium & large-scale
economies, as the case of CHINA…
• 2000
CHINA – UNIDO
Impact through Models
• GDP (US$ 1.07 trillion)
– Projection (~ 7.2 %/year)
• INVESTMENTS
– US$ 300 billion/year
• ODA - U$ 6 billion
• FDI - U$ 40 billion ≈ 2.0%
≈ 13%
– < 5 % Primary
– > 80 % Secondary
– 15 -20 % Tertiary
• Gov.+ Private Sector
– U$254 billion
Source: UNIDO-BO Analysis
• 2005
• GDP (US$ 1.78 trillion)
– Probability > 90 %
• INVESTMENTS
– US$ 960 billion/year
≈ 0.6%
• ODA - U$ 6 billion
• FDI - U$ 60 billion
– 10 % Primary
– < 50 % Sec.
≈ 6%
– > 30 % Tertiary
• Gov. + Private Sector
– U$900 billion
China – Distribution of SPX Centres in the Country
(i) 3% of Land Mass;
(ii) 20% of Pop.;
(iii) 45% of GDP;
(iv) 70% of all:
(a) int’l trade & (b) inv.
2
3
5
37
Patterns of Tech-knowledge Transfer – UNIDO
Multiple sources/one or more absorbers
Provider
Absorber/Adapter
Recipient
Ad.: (i) Less dependent on one provider;
(ii) More effective capacity build up;
Des.: Slower
China – Distribution of SPX Centres in the Country
(i) 3% of Land Mass;
(ii) 20% of Pop.;
(iii) 45% of GDP;
(iv) 70% of all:
(a) int’l trade & (b) inv.
2
3
5
39
Conclusions
(1) As part of the “Strategic Regional Programme for Latin
America – 2007/2009” it is suggested to strengthen the
capacity in the Region of linking technology acquisition,
industrial development & accelerated growth;
(2) As first step it is proposed that a structure for identifying
the “Prospects for Sustainable Industrial Growth” to be used
as instrument for formulation & evaluation of industrial
policies be established in each country of the Region;
(3) Technology acquisition seems fundamental for
industrial development & accelerated sustainable growth.
There seems to be key variations in the patterns of
transfer that once better understood & applied shall have
a critical role in speeding up growth in the Region;
(4) With the a/m mechanisms, industrial policies shall have
higher impact in accelerating sustainable growth;
Conclusiones
(1) Como parte del "Programa Regional Estratégico para América
Latina - 2007/2009" se sugiere reforzar la capacidad en la Región
de vincular la adquisición de tecnología, el desarrollo
industrial y el crecimiento acelerado;
(2) Como primer paso se propone que una estructura para
identificar las "Perspectivas del Crecimiento Industrial Sostenible"
se utilice como instrumento de formulación y evaluación de
políticas industriales en cada país de la Región;
(3) La adquisición de tecnología parece fundamental para el
desarrollo industrial y el crecimiento sostenible acelerado.
Una vez que se comprendan y apliquen mejor las variaciones
claves en los modelos de transferencia, éstos tendrán un
papel crítico en la aceleración del crecimiento en la Región;
(4) Con dichos mecanismos, las políticas industriales tendrán
mayor impacto en la aceleración del crecimiento sostenible.
Thank you
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