Transcript overview of islam 1.3 billion adherents second largest in the world

OVERVIEW OF THE MIDDLE EAST
• WEEK 3
JAN 28 ,2016
• The Power Players
• Turkey
• Saudi Arabia
• Iran
• Egypt
Main powers vying for ME leadership
Sunni 84%
Alevi 15%
Turkish 7075%
Kurd 18%
Other 712%
Sunni,
90%
Christian
10%
Arab 100%
Shia 89%
Sunni 10%
Persian 61%
Kurd 10%
Azeri 16%
Other 13%
Sunni 85%
Shia 15%
Arab
100%
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Main powers vying for leadership, four power
players
Iran
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Long, rich history
Solid manufacturing/science base
Strong educational system
Has had a lousy history with the west
Only pure theocratic government in ME
Has LOTS of oil/gas
Recently concluded nuclear deal
WHAT DO THE IRANIANS THINK ?
USA & WEST HAVE A BAD HISTORY IN IRAN
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SHAH’S REPRESSION AND DENIAL OF RELIGION
USA SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL, SAVAK
USA SUPPORT FOR SUNNI MONARCHIES
OPEN USA SUPPORT FOR OVERSEAS OPPOSITION
GROUPS
• Vincennes incident, 1988
• NO OUTRAGE THAT IRAQ USED WMD 1980-1988
– USA ACTUALLY HELPED IRAQ IN THAT WAR
INVASION OF IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN
RECENT POLLS SHOW WIDESPREAD SUPPORT FOR
NUCLEAR PROGRAM & REGIME
-63% SUPPORT REGIME, 47% BLAME USA
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Eisenhower & Iran 1953
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Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei
THE REAL BOSS
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BORN 1939, 76 YEARS OF AGE
MID-LEVEL CLERIC
TRAINED UNDER KHOMENI
COMMANDER OF
REVOLUTIONARY GUARD
VERY CONSERVATIVE
PROMOTES SCIENCE AND
INDUSTRY AS FUTURE OF IRAN
PUSHED PRIVATIZATION OF
INDUSTRY
SUCCESSION UNCLEAR
RUMORED TO HAVE ADVANCED
PROSTATE CANCER
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President Hassan Rouhani
68 Years old
Lawyer, Phd
Active in the
revolution
from the
beginning
Has held
about every
post in the
government
Very skilled
diplomat
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Iran
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Parliamentary elections Feb 26
Candidates vetted by government
Roundups of dissidents now
THE issue is the nuclear accord JCPOA
– Iran can now sell it’s oil
– Gets approx. $100B in seized funds
– Still cannot use US banking system
– Can now land it’s planes/ships worldwide
– Enormous economic potential
So, what’s the real deal?
• In 20 years the USA may need Iran as an essential
ally in the region
• Why?
– Sunni Iraq/Syria could soon fall to Jihadists
– Where will the Gulf kingdoms go??
– No peace in Syria/Lebanon until Iran agrees
• Countering China is a very high USA priority
• Denying Russia dominance over Iran is essential
• Russia just struck a deal to supply 11 new reactors
and fuel for 4 reactors
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Egypt
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A deep history going back to ancient Egypt
Center of Sunni philosophy/learning
Lots of people, little opportunity
Military government
Living off Gulf largess, loans from Saudi &
Qatar
• Corruption rampant
• Islamic insurgence in Sinai & Big Bend
What brought on the Arab Spring
in Egypt?
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Food costs, inflation, lack of civil services
Mubarack fought back with police and thugs
The Army stood by and did not participate
USA first backed Mubarack then turned on him
Muslim Brotherhood joined secular groups
Muslim Brotherhood got elected
The Army saw their power diminished and staged a coup
Egypt Today
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Economy is a disaster
– Food inflation 40%
– Tourism is still down, Russian airliner
– Remittances down
– Foreign Trade Reserves down to $16B
– IMF loans held up ????
– Economy poised to contract again 1Q16
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Al-Sisi is consolidating power
– Secular parties also being cracked down on
– Emergency measures invoked
– Pressure on the media
Constitution was rewritten, voted in by a wide margin
Muslim Brotherhood banned
Taking a tough stand against Hamas and ISIS
Good News=A monster gas field has been found in the Med,
infrastructure is in place for export
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Saudi Arabia
• The Kingdom is in a successional transition
Support for ME allies is diminished
• Main domestic unrest is from Islamists
• Deeply involved with the Yemeni war
• Constant US pressure on human rights
SOCIAL PRESSURES
• GROWING MIDDLE CLASS, TECHNICALS
• FASTER GROWING POPULATION, NO JOBS
• ISLAMIST SEGMENT
-BEDOUIN
-NATIONAL GUARD
• ROYAL FAMILY; 4% OF POPULATION, 25%+ OF GDP
• SHIA; 15% OF OVERALL POPULATION, CONCENTRATED
IN THE EASTERN PROVINCES
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HUMAN RIGHTS
• NONE, it’s a police state in all aspects
• COURTS ARE RUN BY THE CLERICS, QADIS
• SHARIA LAW AND PUNISHMENTS
• NO WRITTEN AGREED UPON LAWS,
EXCEPT KORAN AND SHARIAH
• RULE IS BY ROYAL DECREE
• ECONOMIC FAVORS GRANTED BY THE ROYALS
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More Trouble
• 95% of Saudi Income is from oil
• Prices have plunged to well below the $85
target
• Trying very hard to maintain market share
• A drawdown of reserves ($640B) is under
way
• Entered the bond market to borrow short term
• Ability to buy off population and high
unemployment is disappearing
WHAT’S THE RISK TO USA?
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Islamic discontent with Royal Family
Growing Iranian/Saudi tension
Increased Chinese influence
If the monarchy falls, a Wahhabi regime will result in
an Islamic country, a major Al Qaeda demand
• Feels great urgency to solve Israeli/Palestinian
problem
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Turkey
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Solid manufacturing/science base
Member of NATO, very strong military
Strong, growing economy
Cloudy political picture, Cyprus
Restive Kurds, 1M+ displaced
Heavily involved in Syrian war
Over 2M Syrian refugees in Turkey
ReOttomanization?
Turkey
• President Erdogen
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• Ahmet
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Prime Minister
Davutoglu
Republican Parliamentary Democracy
• Free Elections of Parliament
• Creeping encroachment of rights
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The slide into authoritarianism
• The AK Party was elected as a very mild
Islamist party
• Originally AKP brought reforms and curtailed
military influence
• AKP corruption and Islamization is growing
• Since then journalists are jailed
• The judiciary has been curtailed
• Popular dissent squashed
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Turkey - Recent Activities
• A gas-pipeline deal was signed with Iran
– A southern route for gas around contentious
Russia, Ukraine & Belarus from the –stans
– Russian talks have ended, shot down a fighter
• Turkey is developing a gas field in Iran
• Signed a nuclear cooperation deal with Iran &
Jordan
• F-35 partner, will manufacture 100% (except
engine)& homegrown electronics after 2017?
• Bought an advanced anti-air/missile system
from Russia
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Involvement in the Syrian Conflict
• Turkey has taken a leading role in supporting the moderate
Sunni insurgents
• US/UN contend the border is too porous
• 1.9 million Syrian refugees, 2.9 million by the end of 2016
• EU has pledged $3.2 B to Turkey to slow refugees
• Wanted more robust US & EU response to Assad regime
• Now allows US use of NATO air base against ISIS
• Allowed Kurdish fighters to transit to assist in the Kobani siege
• Now uses airpower to attack Kurds, not Assad
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Any other problems?
Plenty!
• Has taken positions which support Palestinian and
Iraqi Kurdish issues
• Is in dispute with Syria and Iraq over water from the
Tigris and Euphrates rivers
• Cyprus, hard to back down
• Alevi discontent growing
• Will Turkey get into the EU?
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Erdogen’s Real Problem
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Fetullah Gulen
Religious leader
Exiled in US
Early AK supporter
Fell out with Erdogen over creeping
power grab
• Behind latest scandals?????
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