Transcript Sammy Almashat

Sanctions as War:
The cases of Iraq and Iran
Sammy Almashat, MD
Left Forum 2013
Objectives
• Historic overview of sanctions as tools of war
• Case studies: Iraq and Iran (Gaza also in acute
crisis)
• Unquestioned assumptions fueling nearuniversal consensus in U.S.
Overview
• Sanctions vs. Embargo
• Iraq first modern instance of “internationally”
coordinated total embargo
• Extra-territorial sanctions
• Iran now approaching conditions resembling
embargo
Iraq
Iraq pre-1990
Sustained improvements in public health (and
other) infrastructure beginning in 1970s and
continuing throughout 1980s
Iraq pre-1990
• Child health:
– 50% reduction in infant/child mortality (since 1980)
– Undernourishment in Iraqi children “no longer a public health
problem”
• Healthcare:
– Universal healthcare access (93% population)
– Majority of pregnant women had pre/peri-natal services
• Education:
– Universal primary education (93% children)
– “highly effective” literacy campaign (85% women)
• Infrastructure:
– “Vast majority” of households had access to electricity
– 80% access to safe drinking water
– Population caloric requirements met (120% of requirements); “one of the
highest per-capita food availability ratings in the region”
“This aggression will not stand”
– George H. W. Bush, August 6, 1990
Gulf War I:
“near apocolyptic”
• 130,000 tons of munitions dropped on Iraq in a
43-day span
• Iraqi casualties: 30-100,000 military and civilian
deaths estimated
• Devastation of infrastructure: Sec. of State James
Baker’s fulfilled promise to “bomb Iraq back into
the Stone Age”
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–
–
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Power plants
Water treatment facilities
Bridges
$232 billion in total damages
Iraq embargo
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•
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Passed by UN Security Council in August 1990
U.S. power (Yemen sole abstention)
Near-total ban on imports and exports
Immediate impact (90% imports, 97% exports)
– Cholera, tyhpoid outbreaks (previously eradicated
through sanitation, vaccination programs)
Iraqi Economy pre- and post-1990
(% reduction)
Oil-for-Food:
Humanitarian Illusions
• 1996: “Oil-for-Food” program implemented
• Allowed Iraq to export fraction of pre-1990
levels for humanitarian goods
• “Dual-use” items (e.g. childhood vaccines,
water treatment equipment)
• Contract holds: U.S. (95%) UK (5%)
Sanctions toll:
1990-2003
• 1995: 1,100 calories/person/day under ration
system
• Deaths: 200,000 to 500,000 children under 5
(up to 1 million total)
• Middle-class decimated (unemployment,
hyperinflation, exile)
• Ration economy: from opposition to
dependence on Saddam
“Genocidal” policy
• “…the kind of increases of child mortality that
were seen in Iraq are almost unknown in the
public health literature. Iraq is the only instance
of a sustained, large increase in mortality in a
stable population of more than 2 million in the
last 200 years.”
• Two consecutive UN humanitarian coordinators
(Hans von Sponeck, Denis Halliday) resign in
protest of “genocidal” policy
Iran
Iran Sanctions
• Began in 1979 following Islamic revolution
• Unilateral, “primary” sanctions at first
• 1990s: extra-territorial (“secondary”) elements
enacted
• 2010-2012: extra-territorial provisions expanded to
Iranian financial sector (and enforcement begins)
• 2012: EU sanctions oil industry
• 2013 (June 3): Exec order sanctioning Iran’s currency
(potentially impacting 1/5 Iranian economy)
Economic Consequences
• Oil exports halved (lowest since 1980s)
• Rial’s value cut to one-third of previous
levels/near-hyperinflation sets in (30% in
2012)
• First GDP contraction in two decades (1.9%
March 2012-2013; further 1.3% projected this
year)
• Unemployment now 20%
• Industrial base collapsing (auto production
down 40% since 2011)
Iranian Health Advances Threatened
• Primary care network, reaching 23 million rural
dwellers
• 75% reduction in rural infant mortality
• Free contraception: “… largest and fastest drop in
[birth rate] ever recorded…” since the 1980s
• Domestic pharmaceutical industry overcame access
barriers posed by Western pharmaceutical patents
• Healthcare coverage not universal, but govt and
private insurance (mostly through employers) cover
90% of services to population
Pharmaceuticals
• 85% essential medicines produced domestically; $2.1
billion/year industry
– Domestic production down sharply due to lack of raw
materials (“dual-use” chemicals)
• Many newer, more complex medications still imported
– 50% drop in imports from U.S. (2012)
• Oncologic drugs (Herceptin, Paclitaxel), newer
anesthetics, hemophilia blood factors and other
biologics
• Medical devices, hospital equipment also affected
• 6 million patients at risk
Humanitarian Exemptions:
“Oil for Food” redux
• U.S. Treasury Dept:
– “It has been the longstanding policy of the United
States not to target Iranian imports of
humanitarian items, such as food, medicine and
medical devices.”
• Reality:
– “Virtually no American or European bank wants to
be involved in financial transactions with Iran, no
matter what products are involved.” (NYT,
11/2/2012)
“Put plainly, Washington and Brussels’ stated
intention that sanctions ‘pressure the Iranian
government…without contributing to the
suffering of the ordinary [Iranians],’ as former
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton once put it, is
not being reflected by the reality on the
ground.”
- Wilson Center report on Iran sanctions and
medical supply shortages, Feb 2013
Humanitarian Illusions,
Financial Realities
• Absurdity of humanitarian exemptions while
destroying economy
• “Dual-use” re-enters discourse (e.g. list of
exempted medical devices)
• Secondary sanctions and draconian penalties
guaranteee no foreign banks will finance
imports and exports to and from Iran
Iran vs. Iraq:
Decisive Differences
• Iraq 1990-2003: total embargo following postwar devastation, economy virtually
obliterated, traditional trade non-existent
• Iran 2013: $500 billion annual GDP (Iraq 1990:
$60 billion)
• Iranian alliances vs. Iraqi isolation
• American power and influence: 1990 vs. 2013
Stopping the U.S.,
Solidarity with Iranians
U.S. public opinion on Iran
• 80% favor tougher sanctions
• 63% favor military force
• 70% see Iranian nuclear program as “major
threat”
Reframing the debate
• What is the Iranian threat? (“Western
obsession”)
• Why are the sanctions in place?
• What are ultimate U.S. goals?
NPT
• Signed in 1968
• Two parallel commitments
• Non-nuclear nations would promise not to
pursue weaponization
• The forgotten obligation: “nuclear club” at the
time would make “good faith” efforts to
eliminate their nuclear weapons stockpiles
Sanctions in context
• Sanctions but one element of ongoing, 34year war against Iran
• Terrorism (nuclear scientists, Stuxnet)
• Subversion (MEK)
• Daily, credible threats of military force
The Real Threat
• www.havaar.org
“We are a grassroots group of Iranians, IranianAmericans and allies who have joined together to
categorically oppose any military action and the U.S.led sanctions against Iran. We stand in solidarity with
the Iranian people’s struggle against war and
sanctions and against state repression; we know that
all of these forms of violence hurt the lives and
aspirations of ordinary Iranians.”