Transcript Where to after transition

WHERE TO AFTER
TRANSITION? - TO EU!
Are there any alternatives?
CHRONOLOGY OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
July 1952 – European comunity for coal and steel (Belgium, Germany,
France,Italy, Luxemburg, Netherland (6)
January 1958 - Treaty of Rome: EEC and Euratom
January 1973 – accession of Danemark, Ireland, Great Britain (9)
January 1981 – accession of Greece (10)
January 1986 – accession of Spain and Portugal (12)
November 1993 - EU Maastricht treaty
January 1995 – accession of Austria, Finland, and Sweden (15)
May 1999 – Amsterdam Treaty 1997
February 2003 – Treaty of Nice
2003 – Convention for European Constitution
May 2004 – accession of Czech R., Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania,
Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia (25)
June 2004 – Constitution Treaty, Rome
2005 – refusal of constitution in France and Netherland
2005 - financial perspective for 2007-2013 period
EU ENLAREGEMENTS
400
area
porast povrsin
300
population
povecanje prebivalstva
200
production
povecanje produkcije
100
production per capita
povecanje produkta na prebivalca
0
1952 (6)
1973 (9)
1986 (12)
1995 (15)
2004 (25)
EU INSTITUTIONS
-
-
-
European Council – council of ministries, presidency, looking for consensus
in key matters, COREPER, meetings of country leaders, EU commisioner
and president of the EU parliament;
European Commission - government – 20 (president, 2 vice presednts and
17 commissioners, directorates (DG);
European Parliament – legislation (directives), 732 members, EU budget,
election and control of commissioners, direct elections of MPs;
European Court – judges nominated by the countries, control of the actual
use of the rules, influence on creation of national laws;
European central bank – European monetary institute before 1998,
monetary policy in the euro area;
Other institutions – Economic and social council, European investment
bank, etc.
BASIC DATA ON EU ECONOMY
Popolation2010
Employment
GDP
GDP/cap.
Value added
- Agriculture
- Industry
- Services
milions
% act. pop.
bill. €
000 €
EMU
330
64.7
8963
27.3
EU27
501
64.6
11790
23.6
ZDA
307
67.6
10122
32.9
Japonska
127
70.0
3539
252007
%GDP
%GDP
%GDP
1.6
20.7
77.7
1.7
20.6
77.4
1.2
21.9
76.9
1.6
21.9
76.5
-
Exports
%GDP
19.6
13.4
11.22008 14.82008
-
Imports
%GDP
18.9
17.9
15.42008 14.52008
DISPERSION OF THE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL IN
EU27
35
IR
30
GDP/capita 000 €
SW
25
ESP
20
SI
CZ
15
EST
10
PL
LAT
5
BG
RO
0
2007
LIT
PT
MT
2004
HU
CY
GR
FI
FR
GE
IT
A
UK
DK
BE
NL
CONVERGENCE TO EU AVERAGE
(based on convergence 1997-2007)
110
EU27
100
90
Slovenia
80
Czech R.
Estonia
70
60
Hungary
Poland
50
Slovakia
Lithuania
40
Latvia
30
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
CONVERGENCE OF “NEW” MEMBER STATES
100
90
80
70
K V(G DP /cap)
60
50
40
30
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
CONVERGENCE ?
110
EU27=100
100
90
Slovenia
80
70
NMS (2004 enlargement)
60
Latvia
50
40
30
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
ALTERED “GENEROSITY” OF EU
4
3
"assist anc e "
% of G D P
Lit huania
Lat via
Por tugal
Slovakia
G reece
2
Poland
Ir e land
Spain
1
Hungar y
C ze c h R .
Slove nia
development level
EU- 25=100
0
40
60
80
100
120
140
IS A MEMBER COUNTRY A COUNTRY
(ECONOMIC ENTITY)?
A country as economic entity should be able:
• 1. to print money;
• 2. to collect taxes;
• 3. to control the flows of goods, labor, and capital over its borders;
• 4. to create rules of the game – economic system.
Indeed,
1. monetary policy is shifted to ECB;
2. fiscal policy is restricted by Stability Pact;
3. countries cannot control flows of goods and capital;
4. “acquis” form economic system.
IS EU A COUNTRY?
Questions ?
-
EU is association of the countries rather than association of citizens?
Who identifies himself as a European?
What will increased diversity in the level of development bring?
Is there a danger of Yugoslav syndrom? Who is exploiting whom?
The pillars of EU stability?
-
Inertia (CAP, Stability Pact)
Democratic deficit (refusal of EU constitution)
Constant creation of new rules and new institutions (vested interests)
Empty talks (Lisbon Strategy, neoliberalism and supply side economics)
Ability to adapt its own rules (Stability Pact)
WHAT CAN EU DO?
Is EU a country?
Questions ?
-
EU is association of the countries rather than association of citizens?
Who identifies himself as a European?
What will increased diversity in the level of development bring?
Is there a danger of Yugoslav syndrom? Who is exploiting whom?
The pillars of EU stability?
-
Inertia (CAP, Stability Pact)
Ability to disregard or adapt its own rules (Stability Pact, competition rules)
Democratic deficit (refusal of EU constitution)
Constant creation of new rules and new institutions (vested interests)
Empty talks (Lisbon Strategy, neoliberalism and supply side economics)
FOUR PILLARS OF EUROPEAN NEOLIBERALISM
-
The basic obstacle to economic growth are too high costs of labor
Public expenditure is waste of money and obstacle to economic growth
Reduction of subsidies to poor would ensure their success in life
Market distributes according to what is just; the interference with the
distribution are therefore immoral; they reduce economic efficiency
which is the basic value
EMPTY TALKS OF LISBON STRATEGIES
- The first Lisbon Strategy; 2000-2010, admitance of the
failure, ”renovation” in 2005, Pact for Growth and
Employment, responsibility?
-
Supply Side: production function Y = A * K a * L b
total factor productivity, liberalization of labor market
Do expenditures for R&R assure growth and employment?
Does globalization help EU?
- What about Aggregate Demand? causality in modern
economies