Transcript Scenariji pristupanja Hrvatske Europskoj uniji

Scenarios about EU
accession of Croatia
The impact of the global financial crisis on the industrial sectors of
Eastern European countries / Industrial change in Croatia
Zagreb, Croatia, 27-28 April 2009
Darko Šeperić
Union of Autonomous Trade Unions of Croatia
[email protected]
Croatia and EU perspective
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1991 – better starting position than most of CEE countries
1992 – 1995 – war
1995 – 2000 – quiet international isolation
2000 – Zagreb summit – start of negotiations on SAA
2001 – SAA signed
2003 – membership application
2004 – candidate status
2005 – start of accession negotiations
• 2012 – objectively-optimistic date of EU membership
Problems and halts in negotiations
• postponements & blockades:
– ITCY cooperation (2005)
– Fisheries and Ecological Protection Zone (2008)
– border dispute with Slovenia (2008-?)
• real problems of EU accession
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judical reform; corruption and organised crime
public administration reform
lack of long-term economic policy and budget planning
high state subsidies (2005 2.1% BDP, EU-15 0.6%)
slow implementation of structural reforms – questionable
implementation of adopted legislation
Fulfilling membership requirements
• by mid-2008 20 chapters opened but only 2 provisionally
closed
• by April 2009 22 chapters opened, 7 closed
• progress reports from EC mostly positive, but certain critics
appearing every year in the same form
– lack of serious engagement in judical and public administration
reform
– slow return of refugees, cooperation with the ICTY
• 2008 – “5th speed”
– rapid process of legislation harmonisation with no studies of
impact or costs/benefits
– around 140 laws and 300 other legal documents harmonised in
2008 – 40% of total legislation harmonisation since 200.
Macroeconomic indicators
• average GDP growth rate 2010-2025 0.6 points higher
(around 14% of GDP growth rate)
• GDP 2025 up to 9% higher than outside EU
– 1,1% effects of common market
– up to 7,8% effect of institutional reform
• overall price increase 1,4% (services, energy, housing)
– lower shock than with NMS, because price level is already more
harmonised with EU(2005 62% EU25, purchasing power 48%)
• prices of real estate increase 4% (NMS around 30%)
• positive balance to the EU budget (0.2% GDP in first 3 years)
• no effect on unemployment rate, but positive effect to
employment rate
Institute for Economics Zagreb, 2007.
Problems with macroeconomic
indicators
• difficult to distinguish effects of membership from other effects
(NMS accession in times of favourable global economic
trends, effects of transition...)
• impossible to estimate full long-term effects
• aggregate data hides real social impact
– increasing differences in income and social status
– some groups of population benefit, but some lose from EU
membership
+ threat of social dumping inside EU
Effects for the EU
• neglible positive impacts on macroeconomic indicators of the
EU due to small size of Croatian economy
– population increase 1%
– total output increase 0.3%
– Croatia = 0,3% of EU export
• EU demands transitional period for road transport
Croatian economy vs. NMS
Value added across sectors, 2001
• contribution
of
most
manufacturing
sectors low
• contribution of
services
substantially
bigger than in
NMS
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 2007
Croatian economy vs. NMS
Export of goods and services as % of GDP (2005)
goods & services
goods services
EU-25
37,0
29,4
7,6
EU-15
36,4
28,9
7,5
NMS-10
54,7
44,4
10,3
CROATIA
49,3
22,8
26,5
• services
count for 45% of Croatian export, while
world average is 20% (EU-25 20.5%)
Sectoral impacts
• increase in productivity and output as result of eliminating
non-tariff barriers easier in manufacturing than in services
– overall impact will depend on further liberalisation of
services
• most developed sectors in Croatia are the ones with low
potential for causing effects to common market
– transport, services
• most export increase expected in sectors with low productivity
and low share in total exports
– textile, clothes
Sectoral impacts on production
Change of production level in % until 2025. as effect of common market
sector
Hrvatska EU-15
EU-12
textile
66,4
0,0
-0,1
clothes manufacturing
30,2
0,0
-0,2
metal
9,2
0,0
0,1
chemistry and nonmetal 7
0,0
0,0
food production
0,0
0,1
-3,1
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 2007
Sectoral impacts on production
Change in level of
production in %
until 2025 as result
of institutional
reforms
sector
Croatia
textile
89,2
metal
67,2
transport equipment
48,8
machinery and equipment
34,9
chemistry and minerals
37,8
other services
-15,6
bussines services
- 3.9
Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, 2007
Sectoral impacts
AGRICULTURE
• problems: high fragmentation + war effect (mines)
• on short term costs higher than benefits
• final result depends on results of accession negotiations and
reforms undertaken before accession
FISHERIES
• high costs of harmonisation with EU standards and regulations
• fleet modernisation needed
• on short term costs higher than benefits
ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION
• costs: 5,5 – 10 billion EUR until 2023
Foreign direct investments
• 2005 cumulative FDI 2800 EUR per capita (40% GDP)
– relatively high comparing to most transition countries
• problem: most of FDI in services (60%) and in already existing
companies (privatisation)
– banking sector, commerce, telecommunications
– privatisation incomes spent for filling holes in budget
– low share of green-field FDI
• causes: non-existence of clear strategy of economical and
especially industrial development
– The Industrial Policy of the Republic of Croatia in Preparation for
Accession to the EU (2008)
Flexibilisation of labour legislation?
Employment Protection Legislation Index
2004.
Portugal
3,7
Slovenija
3,5
Italija
3,4
Hrvatska
2,76
Švedska, Njemačka, Estonija
2,6
Slovačka
2,4
Češke
2,1
Velika Britanija
0,9
SAD
0,7
Conclusions
• overall impact of EU membership depends much more on
results of institutional reforms than exact date of accession
• lack of long term economic policy and sectoral costs and
benefits analysis undermines chances of benefiting from
accession
• as trade unions, we are more interested in overall impact on
social picture of Croatia than macroeconomic indicators
Thank you for attention.