Transcript Climate Change – Croatia

Climate Change – Croatia
Ivana Carev
Association for Nature, Environment and Sustainable
Development “Sunce”, Split
Commitments of the Republic of Croatia
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Croatia, as an independent state, joined
the United Nations on 22 May 1992
1996 – UN member
Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto Protocol – still not ratified
maintain greenhouse gas emissions at their
1990 levels
2008 to 2012 reduce its emissions of
greenhouse gases by 5 percent in relation to
the base year, 1990
undergoing the transition process to a
market economy
flexibility including the choice of the
reference year for greenhouse gas
emission levels
Croatia - country that is particularly
vulnerable to the impact of climate change
due to its
5,800 km long coastline
with 1185 islands
its fragile agriculture and forestry
with their social and economic significance
potential influence on
hydrology,
water resources,
mainland
coastal ecosystems
Croatia has cause for concern and is
motivated to take an active part in
international efforts aimed
at finding practical solutions to climate
change
Republic of Croatia
•
In 1991. Independent, member of former Yugoslavia
• Territorial and administrative structure - 20 counties and the City of Zagreb
• 19 government ministries
• Climate issues - Ministry of Environmental Protection and Physical Planning
– Atmosphere Protection Department and Climate
– Ozone Layer Protection Section
• census in 2001 - 4 437 460 inhabitants
• covers an area of 87 677 km2
• 77.5 inhabitants per km2
• structure of the economy:
– services account for about 60 percent of income
– industry holds a 30 percent share
– while agriculture makes up the remaining 10 percent
• tourism plays an important role
Specific Croatian Circumstances
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
according to Article 4.6 of the Convention - flexibility in selection of reference year
emission of greenhouse gases - very low
problems in determining emissions of GHG - no reliable data until 1992
up to 1992 area of former Yugoslavia - integral economic and energy market
territorial allocation of activities couldn’t be properly carried out
the emission in Croatia until the year 1992 has partly been determined on the basis of data
available for former Yugoslavia.
in the reference year 1990 - emission of 39.4 Mt eqCO2 which gives 8.24 t eqCO2/capita
emission of greenhouse gases per capita the lowest amongst developed countries and
countries in transition
implementation of the Convention’s and the Kyoto Protocol’s commitments - difficult task
Kyoto negotiations - no available data on emissions, not consider possibilities for their
reduction
Croatia was in no position to negotiate
despite the negative economic trends emission fell by 24% up to the year 1995
Policies and Measures
•
•
•
•
Energy consumption in 1998 totalled 354 PJ - 1.8 t of the oil equivalent per capitavery low
Energy Policy - to provide a high quality and reliable supply of energy
Environmental Protection Policy - Ministry of Environmental Protection and
Physical Planning.
Approbatory Decisions, Activities and Positive Practices
– shutting down the large energy consumers (coal plant in Bakar, the ferrous metals factory
in Šibenik, and the high blast furnaces in Sisak
– the orientation towards renewable energy sources
– the maximisation of hydroelectric power potential utilisation
– economic development directed towards services and energy non-intensive industries
– the gas networking of Croatian households
– closing down the only domestic coal mine due to environmental reasons
– postponing the construction of a new coal fired thermal power plant
– sustainable forest management
– a conventionally high share of biomass use for heating purposes (5-7% of total energy
consumption)
– the construction of a nuclear power plant pursuant to western PWR technology
Geography and Climate
•
•
•
•
•
•
The Republic of Croatia is a CentralEuropean, Adriatic and
Mediterranean, Pannonian and
Danube Basin country
territory is divided into large natural
and geographic entities:
– Pannonian and Peri-Panonnian
areas (54.4%)
– hilly and mountainous areas
(14%)
– and the Adriatic areas (31.6 %).
Köppen classification - the most part,
has a moderately warm and rainy
climate
coldest month: -3°C and 18°C.
highest mountain regions (>1200m
asl) have a snowy, forest climate
mean annual precipitation from 600 to
3500 mm
Climate Change Impact and Adaptation
• Current knowledge does not
allow us to predict with accuracy
how the process will develop
under the altered climate
conditions forecast for the future
• Estimates - historical trends
displayed by climate factors and
conclusions drawn about the
sensitivity and vulnerability of
individual parts of the ecosystem
to forecast future conditions
Climate Scenarios
• Regional models of air temperature
variations were designed in accordance
with the business as usual global scenario,
which postulates a doubling of CO2
emission into the atmosphere:
– temperature increase over the
territory of Croatia ranging from
• 2.0 °C to 2.8 °C in the coastal
and mountainous area
• 2.4 °C to 3.2 °C in the lowland
areas of the country
– decreases in precipitation (due to
a decreasing trend)
– sea level rise from 20 to 86 cm
Possible impacts
Hydrology:
• decrease in precipitation
– cannot meet the water needs of
plants (due to increased
evapotranspiration)
– significant decline in runoffs and
soil moisture in Slavonia and
Primorje
– different water regime
– water shortages during the
summer months
– increased fire risk
Coastal area:
• flooding of seaside areas
• salt-water intrusion into groundwater
and soil
• coastal erosion
Possible impacts
Biodiversity and Land Natural
Ecosystems
• shift of vegetation zones (belts) in a
horizontal and vertical direction
• displacement and changes in the
habitats of individual species of flora
and fauna
• extinction of individual species
• changes in the qualitative and
quantitative mixture of biocenosis
• fragmentation of habitats
• changes to ecosystem functioning
• impact on the types of trees belonging
to narrow ecological valences, such as
the fir-tree and penduculate oak
Evidences of Climate Change
• Scientists noticed changes in some 100 physical and 450 biological
processes
• Russian Arctic, higher temperatures - melting the permafrost
• rain is often more intense
• floods and storms are more severe
• and heat waves are becoming more extreme
• rivers freeze later in the winter and melt earlier
• trees flower earlier in spring
• insects emerge faster and bird lay eggs sooner
• glaciers are melting
• global mean sea level is rising.
The rate of climate change expected over the next 100 years is
unprecedented in human history.
Observed Climate Change in Croatia
• The main conclusions were drawn from an analysis of long-term
meteorological measurements taken across Croatia:
– territory of Croatia is located in a broad transitional zone, which will generate
different changes in temperature trends; those for inland Croatia and coastal
area differ in their respective characteristics.
– annual mean daily temperature trend shows a slight rise of 0.3-0.4C (not
significant)
– annual maximum daily temperature trend shows slight decline (not significant)
– spring and summer maximum temperatures fall slightly
– autumn and winter maximum temperatures rise marginally
– annual minimum daily temperature trend shows a significant rise in inland
Croatia, while in Crikvenica (coast), a slight temperature drop was recorded
during the spring
– daily temperature range (MAX-MIN) is decreasing
(statistically significant
change)
Observed Climate Change in Croatia
• rise in air pressure
• significant decreases in the median
annual cloud formation over the
territory of Croatia
• annual precipitation decrease
• temperature rise causes increases
in potential evapo-transpiration
• water levels in Croatia’s inland
watersheds (Sava and Drava) and
in the coastal area (Lake Vrana)
over the period of 75 to 100 years
show that water levels have varied
considerably between 1926 and
1975
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia
Fires:
• number of fires and surface areas
burnt - relation to high
temperatures
• in 2000, air temperatures were
extremely high
• there was a total of 706 fires
• 68.171 ha total burnt forest and
woodland area
• two to three times higher than
any other seen over the past ten
years
• desertification
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia
Forests:
• fir-trees grow at the edge of their natural
habitat, moving towards the
Mediterranean climate zone
• adjustments made to the warmer
conditions in the forests of fir-tree and
hop hornbeam on the slopes of Biokovo
• increased share of trees belonging to the
broader ecological valences that did not
play a dominant role
• economic value of forests has declined,
but the overall beneficial functions they
serve have not been reduced (ecological
and social)
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia
• Extreme weather conditions:
•
2003. Drought
•
14. November 2004. Bora
– Up to 240 km/h
– 30 people injured, destroyed
houses, cars, parks, trees…
Evidences of Climate Change in Croatia
•
•
•
•
•
January 2005.
Unusual snow in Dalmatia
8. June 2005. Extreme coldness
extremely low temp. 9,6°C
Snow on Mosor, mountain above Split
Thank You!
Ivana Carev
[email protected]
[email protected]