Transcript Topic Disadvantages

James Stevenson
• Auto industry
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Second-largest automobile producer in the world
Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP
Directly employs 1.7 million Americans
Spends $16-18 billion annually on research and development
Bailed out for $80 billion in 2008
• Airline Industry
• Devastated by 9/11—lost $30 billion and laid off 100k workers from
2000-2005. Bailed out for $4.6 billion.
• Will fly 323 million seat-miles in 2012
• Employs nearly 600,000 Americans
• Uniqueness: industry strong now
• Link: plan trades off w/ industry growth
• Siphons demand
• Decreases competitiveness
• “Zero sum”—predicated off aff solvency
• Internal link: industry is good, generally for a few reasons:
• Economy
• Hegemony/competitiveness
• Aerospace
• The 2008 recession:
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Recession = sustained period of decreased economic activity
Begins in 2007. Officially ends in 2009 but lingering effects remain
Housing bubble
Derivative deregulation
Median household income drops to 1996 levels
• The facts:
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Unemployment in June is 8.2%. +800,000 jobs.
Retail sales dropped 0.5% in June—third straight negative month
Growth in the last 11 fiscal quarters
Economy is 1.2% larger than pre-recession levels
• UQ: Economy is okay
• L: There are a few possibilities-• Fiscal discipline
• Spending decreases US credit rating
• Spending snowballs—”pork barrel” projects
• Inflation
• “Invisible hand” of the free market” vs targetted government spending
• Private investment crowd-out
• !: Economy
• Two important techniques:
• Know the facts.
• Know the theory, so you can spin the facts.
• Econ debates are 75% spin.
• Internal link comparisons
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Short vs. long term growth
Sustainability of growth
Evidence specificity—generic cards vs aff/transportation specific analysis
Eurozone comparisons
• Economic decline as “escalatino” impact—turns case args
• Oil prices
• Spot price per barrel of Brent crude
• Follow laws of supply and demand
• “Market flooding”—massive supply increase to offset drop in price
• OPEC
• Several of the most powerful oil retailers in the world—except the US and
Russia
• Trades oil in dollars… for now
• UQ: Oil prices up
• L: Plan lowers oil prices
• !: High oil prices good—another entity/country depends on
them
• Basically infinite possible impacts.
• Aff—either don’t do things that link to the DA, or keep updated
on generic parts of the argument (oil prices uniqueness,
economic stability, alt causes to the link, etc) and learn to impact
turn
• Saudi Arabia
• 2nd largest reserves and largest producer (as of March)
• US ally, sort of.
• Close neighbors w/ Egypt (just had a revolution), Israel (historic enemies,
nuclear-armed), Syria (undergoing revolution), Iraq (yeah), Bahrain +
Yemen (successfully stifled revolutions), Iran (probably seeking nuclear
armament, also historic enemies)
• Russia
• 8th largest reserves, 2nd largest producer
• Taxes on oil = half of government revenue
• $1 in oil pricing = $1.5 billion of revenue
• Provisions requiring that spending goes to American companies
• Political interest
• Directness of stimulus
• “Protectionism”—doesn’t give other countries a fair chance—
triggers reciprocation
• Trade = “escalatino” impact
• UQ: Trade up now
• L: Plan has to use Buy American, triggers protectionism
• Spills over—economic ripples
• Other countries’ statements
• !: Protectionism bad
• Trade connectivity = peace
• Presidential elections. They are happening. Read the news.
• They matter.
• Normal election year politics = gridlock, because any
controversy is kryptonite
• Infinite impacts.
• Electoral college, not popular vote = some states matter more
than others
• Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina, Arizona, New
Hampshire
• UQ: Obama/Romney will win now
• L: Plan is unpopular/popular, making Obama/Romney lose
• !: Obama/Romney good
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Iran strikes
Economy
Warming/emissions/green tech
Immigration
Health care repeal
• Two ways to get ahead on uniqueness:
• Cut cards regularly.
• Nate Silver = generally considered the best poll analyst in the country
• Cut swing-state specific uniqueness/link modules to beat link
turns
• Elections debate often devolve to impacts v. impact turns—be
prepared with uniqueness tricks and turn shields
• Obama can’t fulfill his agenda, GOP will constrain him
• Romney lacks political spine, will moderate once he’s elected
• UQ: X bill will pass
• L/IL: Plan’s political fallout makes X bill not pass
• !: X bill good
• Wind PTC
• Jackson-Vanik/PNTR
• Debt Ceilling/Fiscal Cliff
Further down the road:
• Immigration
• Energy/emissions regulation
• Health care repeal
• CTBT
• Extremely technical
• Put it in the 1NR.
• Three essential elements
• Recent cards
• Short/efficient cards
• Lots of cards
• Comparisons
• Predictive vs. descriptive
• Qualifications
• Infrastructure spending is generally unpopular
• Cost
• Pork
• But it might also be kinda popular
• Contractors
• Public good
• Stimulus/unemployment
• Simply: presidential ability to leverage his/her clout to pass
bills
• Public pressure
• Back-room negotiating
• Agenda setting
• Have to win Obama would push the plan
• Not simply a question of popularity/unpopularity of the
president OR of the plan
• Focus—has to work on one issue to get it passed
• Agenda/docket—plan knocks another item off the legislative
list
• Winners win—classic 2AC answer
• Winning passage of difficult legislation builds, not spends, political capital
• Assumes political capital
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They are funny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNixDlRoMvA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8UtRNCztVI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOgj2etJs3Y&feature=play
er_embedded
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdTgKarqTQ0
• http://www.theonion.com/video/man-becomes-gopfrontrunner-after-showing-no-inter,19678/