Transcript Presentation Title

U.S. Office of Public Policy
Confidential
IB/WM Client Presentation, GIOA Conference
Washington Update
Andy Blocker
Federal Affairs Manager
Managing Director
March 22, 2012
Section 1
Political Landscape
Direction of the Country vs. Obama’s Approval Rating
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Jan-09
July-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Right Direction
Source: Real Clear Politics, last updated Feb 2012
Jan-11
Jul-11
Jan-12
Approve
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What do people want from government?
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FOCUS
2
&
FUNCTION
America’s top priorities
1.
2.
6.
7.
14.
20.
Economy & Jobs – 83%
Terrorism – 81%
Deficit Reduction – 60%
Health Care – 57%
Financial Reform – 45%
Global Warming – 28%
•Financial Security
Economy, Jobs, Financial
Sector
“It’s the Economy, Stupid!”
•Physical Security
National Defense, Fighting
Terrorism, Fighting Crime
Pew Research Center Poll 1/25/10
Function: Legislative victories & management of situations
DEBT
3
Market & political volatility
Where is Washington headed?
?
?
Move Left or Move Right
Populist or Pragmatic
R
D
Populism
volatility
ab
Gain
Predictability
Growth
Volatility
Loss
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Section 2
112th Congress
The 112th Congress
Republicans win back the House
Senate
Dems
53
House
GOP
47
GOP
242
Dems
193
96 Freshmen:
9 Democrats
87 Republicans
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The Lost Art of Listening…
…perhaps the reason why we can’t all just get along
Democrats “listening”
Republican speaking
FACEBOOK?
ESPN
GAMES
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An Increasingly Polarized Washington
Your Father‘s Congress
Left
Moderate
Right
Today‘s Congress
Left
Moderate
Right
More polarized environment  Less deals cut
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Section 3
Deficits
Deficits and Surpluses
Percentage of GDP
Source: CBO Budget Report January 2012
10
Projected Deficits under Alternative Scenarios
Percentage of GDP
Source: CBO Budget Report January 2012
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Projected Federal Spending in 2020
Source: Congressional Budget Office
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Section 4
2012 Elections
Section 4.A
2012 Elections
Environment for Obama
The Unemployment Effect on Incumbent Elections
9.0% Obama (Oct-11)
8%
Note: In the two years leading
up to Reagan’s re-election,
the unemployment rate had
dropped 3.4%.
lost
won
U N E M P L O Y M E N T %
In order to push the current
unemployment rate below
8%, over 250,000 jobs need
to be created each month
leading up to the 2012
election.
8.3% Obama (Jan-12)
7.7% Ford
7.5% Carter
7.4% Reagan
7.3% GHW Bush
--------------------------------5.5% GW Bush
5.2% Clinton
5.1% Johnson
3.9% Eisenhower
3.7% Truman
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Projected Electoral Trends
2008 electoral votes
D - 365
2012 projected electoral votes
R - 173
D - 331
R - 207
270 electoral votes needed to win Presidential election
MINNESOTA
(10)
WISCONSIN
(10)
(17)
IOWA
(7)
(21)
(27)
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March 2012
Projected Electoral Trends
2012 projected electoral votes
Swing States to Watch
D - 211
Colorado (9)
Unemployment Presidential
Rate
Approval
7.9%
46%
Florida (29)
9.9%
47%
Indiana (11)
9.0%
38%
Iowa (6)
5.6%
43%
Michigan (16)
9.3%
52%
Nevada (6)
12.6%
41%
New Hampshire (4)
5.1%
40%
North Carolina (15)
9.9%
45%
Ohio (18)
8.1%
47%
Pennsylvania (20)
7.6%
45%
Virginia (13)
6.2%
51%
? - 147
R - 180
150 Electoral Votes in Play
Map: March 2012
Chart: Bureau of Labor Statistics state unemployment data December 2011; approval ratings March 12, 2012
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Section 4.B
2012 Elections
Republican Field
Anybody but Romney?
Other Candidates
40%
Romney
35%
30%
Steady range
for Romney
25%
20%
Bachmann 16%
Perry 38%
Cain 27%
Gingrich 24%
Santorum 34%
5%
Palin 14%
10%
Trump 17%
15%
APR
JUN
JUL
AUG
OCT
NOV
FEB
0%
Source: NBC/WSJ Poll October 13, 2011, Gingrich CNN poll November 21, 2011, RealClearPolitics Feb 22, 2012
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Issues, Values Matter Most to Republican Primary Voters
2%
19%
30%
Issues
Values
Experience
Beat Obama
Unsure
22%
28%
Source: Marist/NBC Poll October 11, 2011
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Republican Primary and Caucus Contests
1,144 Delegates Needed
496
Primary States (1,823 Delegates)
Caucus States (463 Delegates)
236
141
66
0
200
400
600
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As of March 20, 2012
Upcoming Major GOP Primary & Caucus Contests
March 20
State
IL
Delegates
69
Allocation
Direct election
April 3
TX
155
Proportional
April 24
NY
PA
95
72
167
Proportional
Direct election
May 8
NC
55
June 5
CA
NJ
172
50
222
Proportional
Winner take all
Winner take all
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Who Can Beat Obama?
43.9%
vs.
48.1% •••
•••
44.2%
vs.
49.3% •••
•••
37.5%
vs.
51.3% •••
•••
Source: Real Clear Politics average as of 3/20/2012
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The Verdict on 2012?
 The Economy & Jobs
 World Events
 Obama’s Tone and Positioning
 Republican Nominee
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