Transcript Energy - Ann Arbor Dems

Energy Policy in the 21st Century
• Security
• Dependence on unstable parts of the world for a vital
resource is foolish and dangerous
• In the future we can expect climate driven wars, water
shortages, food insecurity
• Cost
• Every day, we send $1 billion overseas for oil
• The price of oil is set on the global market, and demand is
burgeoning, causing higher prices
• Prices will only continue to rise as China and India develop
• Global Warming
– It’s real, it’s caused by humans, and it’s dangerous
Meet Mr. Willard Mitt Romney
(minus the dog on the roof of the car and war rhetoric against Iran)
A Continuing and Looming Challenge
• Every day, we send $1 billion overseas for oil.
• Department of Defense and the Central
Intelligence Agency have labeled global climate
disruption as a "threat multiplier," meaning it
takes a dangerous situation and makes it worse.
Source: Norman R. Seip retired in 2009 as a lieutenant general in the U.S. Air
Force.
http://www.operationfree.net/2012/03/19/militarys-use-of-solar-power-is-onestep-toward-a-more-secure-future
/
The Supply of Oil
Is Unstable
Energy Security
• There are 23 countries whose oil and gas exports
constitute more than 60% of its exports.
• None of these are democracies
• Of the top ten holders of oil reserves, as of 2008,
all but one are considered to be a failed states or
in danger of becoming a failed states
• Governments with oil income don’t need a tax
base, so don’t need to create accountable
democratic structures
Source: Truman National Security Project and Foreign Policy
Source: Truman National Security Project
Oil Is Increasingly Expensive
Oil Is Traded On A Global Market We Can’t Make US Prices Go Down
Example: US Military Costs
We Can’t Just Drill Our Way Out
We Shouldn’t Drill Our Way Out:
Climate Change
Global Warming
•
•
•
•
It’s real
It’s caused by human activity
It’s dangerous, and
It’s very, very expensive
Warming is Occurring
20 Warmest Years
on Record
These are the
warmest years at
least since 1880,
but based on
reconstructions,
probably the
warmest in
millennia.
Year
Global[46]
Land[47]
Ocean[48]
2005
0.6183
0.9593
0.4896
2010
0.6171
0.9642
0.4885
1998
0.5984
0.8320
0.5090
2003
0.5832
0.7735
0.5108
2002
0.5762
0.8318
0.4798
2006
0.5623
0.8158
0.4669
2009
0.5591
0.7595
0.4848
2007
0.5509
0.9852
0.3900
2004
0.5441
0.7115
0.4819
2001
0.5188
0.7207
0.4419
2011
0.5124
0.8189
0.3970
2008
0.4842
0.7801
0.3745
1997
0.4799
0.5583
0.4502
1999
0.4210
0.6759
0.3240
1995
0.4097
0.6533
0.3196
2000
0.3899
0.5174
0.3409
1990
0.3879
0.5479
0.3283
1991
0.3380
0.4087
0.3110
1988
0.3028
0.4192
0.2595
1987
0.2991
0.2959
0.3005
Human Activity Is Causing It
http://grist.org/climate-change/2011-10-07-guilty-as-charged-proof-of-human-fingerprints-on-climate-change/
It’s Dangerous
• Higher maximum temperatures, more heat waves
(52,000 deaths in 2003 European heat wave)
• More intense precipitation events (catastrophic US
floods of 2011)
• Increased number and intensity of droughts
(Southwest of US, Darfur, Somalia, Russian fires that
destroyed 1/3 of wheat crop in 2010)
• Increased number and intensity of hurricanes
• Intensified droughts and floods during El Nino events
• Increased Asian monsoon variability (Pakistan floods of
2010, covering 1/5 of land area)
It’s Very, Very Expensive
• One reason for complacency is a study from
1990s claiming CC would only cost 1% of GDP
• Proposed that benefits would balance losses
(more AC in the summer, but less heating in
winter). Crops would just move North.
• GDP is a bad measure – a house destroyed by a
hurricane does not affect GDP, because rebuilding
stimulates the economy
• Current estimates from 3.6% to 20% of world
GDP by 2050.
Concerned Parties:
It Isn’t Just Tree Huggers
• “We will pay for this one way or another. We will pay to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions today…or we will pay the
price later in military terms. And that will involve human
lives.”
– General Anthony Zinni, Former Commander-in-Chief U.S.
Central Command
• America’s national security leaders, including the Pentagon,
the State Department, the National Intelligence Council,
and the Central Intelligence Agency, are planning for the
threats to national security posed by climate change
• The CIA has created the Center on Climate Change and
National Security
Source: Truman National Security Project
Obama’s Energy Policy
• Objective 1: Reduce Domestic Consumption
• Objective 2: Increase Sustainable and Clean
Domestic Production
Goal: Reduce Oil Imports
By 1/3 By 2025
•
•
•
•
Half of this will be achieved by tightened fuel
efficiency standards (CAFE)
2 Phases: announced 2009 and 2011
Span model years 2011-2025
Worked out with auto companies, UAW,
California, and environmental advocates
Effect of Rise in CAFE Standards
•
•
•
Save 12 Billion barrels of oil (nearly 4 years of
consumption by light duty vehicles at current
rates)
After 2025, as fleet turns over, will save 4
Million barrels/day (nearly as much as we
import from all OPEC countries combined.)
Reduce CO2 emissions by 6 Billion metric tons
(2009 total US emissions – 5.4 Billion metric
tons)
CAFE Standards in One Picture
Obama’s Energy Policy, Continued
• Tripled the government's investment in clean energy:
• smarter power grid
• energy efficiency
• electric cars
• renewable power.
• Electricity generation from alternative sources has
increased significantly from 2008 to 2010:
– Wind increased 71%
– Solar increased 40%.
• 40% of the world’s advanced vehicle batteries will be
produced by the US in 2015. This is up from 2% in
2009
Support for Alternative Fuel Vehicles
• The President is announcing a new $1 billion National
Community Deployment
• Remove the regulatory barriers, and create the local
incentives to support deployment of advanced vehicles at
critical mass.
• Making advanced vehicles more affordable: The President
proposes to improve the current tax credit for electric
vehicles by
• Expanding eligibility for the credit to a broader range of
advanced vehicle technologies
Alternative Fuel Vehicles, Continued
• Increasing the amount from $7,500, making it scalable up
to $10,000;
• Reforming the credit to make it available at the point-ofsale by making it transferable to the dealer or financier,
allowing consumers to benefit when they purchase a
vehicle rather than when they file their taxes; and
• Removing the cap on the number of vehicles per
manufacturer eligible for the credit and, instead, ramping
down and eventually eliminating the credit at the end of
the decade.
Additional measures and benefits
• Accelerating deployment of alternative-fuel trucks: The
President is proposing a new tax incentive for commercial
trucks that provides a credit for 50% of the incremental
cost of a dedicated alternative-fuel truck, including trucks
powered by natural gas or electricity, for a five-year period.
• Drive up demand for the sorts of vehicles built at
Freightliner’s Mt. Holly Plant and, in turn, spur job creation
in the American manufacturing sector.
• The savings from using lower-cost electricity instead of
gasoline, roughly $100 per month for the average driver,
combined with the reduction of upfront vehicle cost, will
lower energy costs for American consumers and
businesses.
The Military Is Taking Action
The Military Is Taking Action,
continued
•
Increasingly, the sun is being used to power forward operating bases in
Afghanistan. Solar panels save lives on the front lines by minimizing the need for
fuel convoys that are big, slow and highly vulnerable to attack.
•
One military base in Arizona, enough solar panels have been installed on the
ground and on the rooftops of homes that it is now one of the single biggest solarpowered communities in the continental United States.
•
At Luke Air Force Base in suburban Phoenix, the Air Force is partnering with a local
company to build an array of 52,000 high-efficiency solar panels. Once complete,
the solar plant will meet 50 percent of the base's overall electricity needs.
Concluding Remarks
• President Obama’s policies move the United
States in the right direction
• Don’t believe the hype: Republican claims are
on the wrong side of fact and common sense.
Plainly stated: GOP policies are dangerous,
compromising the environment, the American
workforce and the defense of our Nation
Responsible Hydrocarbon Policies
• Contrary to Republican claims, Obama’s
policies are not inhibiting oil development
• In 2010, American oil production reached its
highest level since 2003, and total U.S. natural
gas production reached its highest level in
more than 30 years
Reckless Talk of War, Sanctions, Iran
and the Price of Oil
• Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the
International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that a
sudden spike in oil prices would have "serious
consequences" for the global recovery.
• Sanctions could be responsible for 30% of the rise in
the price of oil
• The trade group for the global aviation industry warned
airlines could run up losses of over $5 billion US this
year if oil prices jump to $150 US a barrel because of
Western tensions with Iran.
Source: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/story/2012/03/20/oilprices-warnings.html
Reckless Talk of War, Sanctions, Iran
and the Price of Oil
• 20% of oil moves through the Straight of
Hormuz
• War against Iran could quadruple the price of
oil
• Mitt Romney has said Iran supports the
Taliban. A false case for military action for
which he has signaled support.
Source: http://www.npr.org/2012/03/06/148072119/gop-candidates-criticize-obama-at-us-israel-conference
Reckless Talk of War, Sanctions, Iran
and the Price of Oil
• Mitt Romney’s foreign policy advisors
“Déjà vu all over again”
--Yogi Berra
• ““Their remarkable experience, wisdom, and depth of
knowledge will be critical to ensuring that the 21st
century is another American Century,” - Mitt Romney
• Several of Romney’s advisers were among the most
forceful proponents the Project for a New American
Century, the one that sought to remake the map of
the Middle East http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/mitt-romney-taps-foreign-policynational-security-advisers/2011/10/06/gIQAnDHzPL_story_1.html