Transcript Title Here - ULI Arizona

Economic Outlook: Here We Grow
Again?
Matt Croucher PhD
Chief Economist
Arizona Public Service Co.
US GDP: Where We Currently Stand
Time For “THAT” Discussion
Which Sparky?
US GDP: The “New Normal”………?
US Long-Term Unemployed: Structural
Problems?
US Labor Force Participation Rates by Age: Dispelling a Myth
• 25 – 49 year olds have rates above 80 percent – have stayed relatively flat
Interest Rates Lowering the Cost of New
Investment
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Metro Phoenix
Cumulative Supply of Excess Housing
APS Territory, Metro Phoenix
Nonresidential Building Vacancy: Metro Phoenix
Arizona Total Nonfarm Jobs: The Climb has begun
• Seasonally Adjusted
Arizona: Looking at the Sectors
Conclusion
• We are seeing signs of (sustained)
traction/rebound in the Arizona Economy
• Need to remember that the long-term
fundamentals are still in place
• My real GDP forecast?
• D: One of the above