Transcript Nick Manning University of Nottingham

Enlargement and social policy
Nick Manning
University of Nottingham, UK
[email protected]
Key issues in session 1
• Impact of enlargement on the socio-economic models in
the new member states
• Differences between old and new members
• Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12
Impact of enlargement on the socioeconomic models in the new member states
• Away from state socialism
• Towards neo-liberal, or not
• Cyclical swings
• Towards the ESM?
….. We need to look at “models”
What is social policy?
… all models do this:
functions
• Production – human capital investment
• Reproduction – health and education
• Solidarity/legitimacy – pensions & poverty
… with a mix of these:
Inputs
• Direct Supply
• Finance
• Regulation
Outputs
• Meeting needs - equity
• economic efficiency
• political stability
What is European social policy?
• From the “outside”
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ESM
(Neo) Liberal
Productivist
Clientalist
• From the “inside” –
• national welfare regimes
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Continental - equity
Nordic – equity & efficiency
Anglo - efficiency
Mediterranean - neither
Transition from state socialism – from equity to efficiency
ESM
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Social democratic - 1980s
Neo-liberal - 2004
Flexicurity – (back to) the future?
Marshall’s hyphenated society:
democratic-welfare-capitalism – 1950s
European social policy preferences
•
A vague ensemble of different institutions, policies and
values
(Dauderstadt, 2002)
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Finance>Economics>Employment>Social protection
(Daly, JCMS, 2006)
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Equality
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Non-discrimination
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Solidarity
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Redistribution
(European Parliament, 2006)
How does social policy change?
• ESM’s triple transformation
– Reaction to deindustrialisation, ageing and gender
– European integration
– European enlargement
• Constitutional asymmetry
– European economic rules constrain national states
– National states impede European SP, politically,
economically and culturally
– New member states
Three ‘worlds of compliance’
• World of law observance (DK, SE, FI)
– compliance even if difficult
• World of domestic politics (AT, BE, DE, NL, ES,
UK)
– compliance if no other difficulties
• World of neglect (IE, IT, FR, EL, LU, PT)
– non-compliance typical
• Poland between 1&2 – no race to the bottom
– Leiber, S (2007) JESP
EU/enlargement and social policy change – some
models
(1) Elites and civil society – enlargement itself
elite
EU
+
Poland +
EU
Turkey +/-
civil/mass society
+
+
-
(2) Cognitive Europeanisation (Spain)
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EU - a model
means for political action
establish a vision of preferred future
grasp the means of realising the vision
procedural and substantive change
(3) Policy transfers (most EU members)
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Adopted where they fit
OECD advice routinely rejected
values for or against
networks of contacts
definitions of the problem to solved
Positive, instrumental or coercive?
(4) Catching up – can NMEs do the same?
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Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain
per capita income
social protection spending
eurobarometer life satisfaction
(5) A “regulatory union”?
• Cost
• Prior systems
• Implementation (no worse than old
members)
(6) Resource redistribution – unrealistic now
• Cost
• Population size
(7) Cultural context
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Gender
Family
Religion
Military
Political roots
Differences between old and new members?
• Tax – is there a race to bottom?
– no evidence for this
• Wages – level and dispersion
– NME’s growing and dispersing
• Government spending – level and trends
– Slow convergence in different cycles
Figure 1 Real GDP growth
(figures are generated from the micro-data available through TransMONEE 2001,
Florence: UNICEF. Each figure includes the 8 CEE accession countries, plus Russia for
comparison)
Figure 2 General Government Expenditure/GDP Ratio
Social realities, EU15 & NMS-12
• Inequality - growing, and worse in NMS
• Social spending
– Health – continued variation
– Pensions - this is complex
– Education – continued variation
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Crime – not as bad as we think
Women – NMS better than many OMS
Minorities – highly varied across the EU
Migration – already slowing down
Time to convergence? 15-20 years or never?
– general convergence, but very, very slow
Race to bottom?
• low wage competition
• low social standards
• higher unemployment
Race to the top?
• Skilled workforce with high wages
• Good social protection
• Low unemployment