Transcript One World 2008 - Lancaster University

THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR A CONTRADICTION IN
TERMS?
Hilary Ingham
Lancaster University
One World 2008 &
Mike Ingham
Ansdell Consulting
Origins of EU
• Current EU-27 is latest stage in a process of
European post-War reconstruction that was
rather ironically American inspired.
• While much activity preceded it, the formal
launch of the project might conveniently be
ascribed to the signing of the Treaty of Rome in
1957 that ushered in the European Economic
Community.
• Signed by Belgium, France, Germany, Italy,
Luxembourg and the Netherlands, it sought to
inter alia:
Treaty of Rome
• lay foundations of an ever closer union among peoples of Europe
• ensure economic & social progress by eliminating barriers dividing
Europe
• constantly improve living & working conditions
• bring steady expansion, balanced trade & fair competition
• strengthen unity by reducing regional development differences
• progressively abolish restrictions on international trade
• confirm the solidarity that binds Europe
• preserve peace & liberty
• invited other European countries sharing the ideals to join the
founders
Copenhagen Criteria
With a clear focus on CEE & Turkey, Copenhagen Council
1993 formalised the admission criteria:
• democracy
• the rule of law
• human rights & protection of minorities
• functioning market economy
• capacity to cope with competitive pressures and market
forces in EU
The Lure of the EU
•
•
•
•
•
1973
1981
1986
1995
2004
• 2007
Denmark, Ireland, UK
Greece
Portugal, Spain
Austria, Finland, Sweden
Czech Rep, Cyprus, Estonia,
Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta,
Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia
Bulgaria, Romania
An Unbridled Success?
• "The time for individual nations [in Europe] having their own tax,
employment and social policies is definitely over. We must finally bury
the erroneous ideas of nations having sovereignty over foreign and
defence policies. National sovereignty will soon prove itself to be a
product of the imagination."
• Gerhard Schröder, 1999
• “Throughout my life, I have been a convinced European.....The wars
and atrocities in former Yugoslavia have demonstrated what
Europeans can do to each other when the forces of disintegration are
allowed to overtake the wish for unity...... Enlargement of the EU is
progressively reuniting our continent...... The historic achievement of
the European Community, now the European Union, was to avoid
conflict, or even war, through the economic and political integration of
its members. To extend that to the rest of Europe is a benefit of
immeasurable value.”
• Wim Kok, 2003
Or Reckless Monster?
We’ll negotiate withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed
jobs.
Tony Blair, 1983, 1st EU President?
Europe [exhibits] evident, undoubtedly unfavourable trends and tendencies. They include:
•long-term economic slowdown (both in relative and absolute terms);
•loss of cultural dynamism coinciding with the victory of multiculturalism and with the belief in the
possibility to preserve traditional European values when abolishing the original institution that made
them possible;
•loss of leadership, depersonification of decision-making, increasing collective (ir)responsibility;
•growing disbelief in politics and in politicians at the moment when increasing range of human
actions is becoming subject to collective, public choice procedures;
•undermining of national identity.
Because everything will be bigger and more complicated [following the recent enlargement] the
inherent failings of the current EU system will increase and will be more visible:
•the democratic deficit and the lack of democratic accountability of EU institutions will be more
apparent;
•the composition of decision-making procedures will further shift from a democratic to a hierarchical
one;
•the power of the EU "core" will be strengthened;
•majority voting instead of unanimity will dominate decision-making in more and more fields;
•attempts to get rid of existing deviations from the "norm" will lead to more intervention from above;
•the distance of citizens from the centre of power, from Brussels, will grow;
•the anonymity in decision-making will increase.
Vaclav Klaus, speech to Bruges Group 2004
WHAT DO EUROPEANS
THINK?
Our Membership a Good Thing: Autumn 2006 (%)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
K
U
SE
FI
SK
SI
PT
PL
L
AT
N
LU
U
H
LT
LV
Y
C
IT
IE
FR
ES
EL
EE
E
D
K
D
Z
C
BE
15
EU
EU
25
0
Accession Referenda
• No votes in Cyprus, Bulgaria and Romania
Accession Referenda (% Eligible Population Yes)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
MT
PL
SI
SK
Attitudes towards the EU
No simple correlate with these results, but
influenced by, amongst others, economic,
cultural, political and philosophical factors.
However, not convincing evidence of attainment
of ToR goal of solidarity.
Here look at the credibility factor, using the
contrast between the Lisbon Strategy (not to be
confused with the Lisbon Treaty) and the
accession programme.
Helsinki Council December 1999
The European Council confirms the
importance of the enlargement process
launched in Luxembourg in December 1997
for the stability and prosperity of the entire
European continent. An efficient and credible
enlargement process must be sustained.
The Lisbon Strategy
Lisbon Council March 2000 set a new strategic
goal for the EU in the ensuing decade:
to become the most competitive and
dynamic knowledge-based economy in
the world, capable of sustainable
economic growth with more and better
jobs and greater social cohesion.
Accompanied by various ambitious targets.
Some Lisbon and Allied Targets for 2010
• 2006
• Overall employment rate of 70%
• 64.4
• Female employment rate of 60%
• 57.2
• 55-64 year old employment rate of 50%
• 43.5
• Average exit age of 64.9
• 61.2
GDP per Capita PPS (EU15 = 100) 2000 & 2006
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BG
CY
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
MT
PL
RO
SI
SK
Productivity per Person Employed PPS (EU15 = 100) 2000 & 2006
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
BG
CY
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
MT
PL
RO
SI
SK
Unemployment (%) 2000 & 2006
25
20
15
10
5
0
BG
CY
CZ
EE
HU
LV
LT
MT
PL
RO
SI
SK
EU15
Some evident convergence of NMS to EU
15, but is Lisbon really succeeding?
Italy & Portugal Inflate Success of NMS
• Members old and new(ish) can unravel the
EU scheme.
• Even inside the Eurozone, domestic policy
still critical.
Real GDP Growth (%) 2000 - 2006
5
4
3
2
EU15
Italy
Portugal
1
0
1
-1
-2
2
3
4
5
6
7
After an inauspicious start, Lisbon
re-branded as a Jobs and Growth
strategy in 2005.
Same goals retained.
Greater social cohesion?
Total Unemployment
2000
EU15
NMS12
Total
2006
13,533,000 14,466,200
5,962,200
4,721,800
19,495,200 19,188,000
Unemployment in 2006 equal to combined
populations of Portugal and Sweden.
Total Employment
EU15
2000
159,514,100
2006
171,198,700
NMS12
Total
42,845,100
202,359,200
42,758,400
213,957,100
Growth in NMS totally jobless.
Regional Cohesion & Enlargement
• The reduction of regional differences
through convergence was highlighted at
Lisbon, just as it was in the Treaty of
Rome.
• How does this fit with enlargement?
• 2004 latest available year.
In
ne
rL
on
do
Lu
n
xe
(U
m
K)
bo
ur
g
Br
(L
ux
U
)
el
le
s
(B
H
am
E
)
bu
rg
(D
E)
W
Be
Il l
ie
e
n
rk
de
(A
s,
T)
Fr
B
uc
an
ks
ce
&
(F
O
R
xf
)
o
O
rd
be
(U
rb
K
ay
)
er
n
St
(D
oc
E)
kh
ol
m
(S
U
E
tre
)
ch
N
t(
or
N
dL)
Ve
st
(R
Su
O
d)
Yu
E
s
gi
t(
zt
R
oc
O
Se
)
he
ve
n
riz
(B
Su
G
to
)
ch
dV
e
n
es
(B
tO
G
lte
)
Su
n
ia
d
Se
-M
(R
un
ve
O
)
re
te
ni
na
ts
Yu
(R
en
zh
O
tra
)
en
le
n
ts
(
en
BG
Se
tra
)
ve
le
n
ro
(B
za
G
pa
)
de
n
(B
N
or
G
)
dEs
t(
R
O
)
GDP per Cap PPS NUTS 2 Regions 2004 (EU27 = 100)
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Most Competitive Economy in the
World?
• 2000 - 2006
Employment
Growth
Australia
Growth
GDP per
Capita
2000 2006
19.7
13.3
77.5
4.9
Canada
16.6
11.7
79.4
6.3
Japan
9.0
0.0
79.3
4.1
Korea
31.2
9.4
70.5
3.4
Mexico
12.1
n.a.
66.0
3.2
US
15.4
5.5
78.4
4.6
EU27
12.2
5.7
70.6
8.2
2000 2006
Unemployment
LFPR
Rate
2006 (%)
2006 (%)
N.B. Saying nothing about Brazil, Russia, India or China
The Future
• Only a brave person would predict what will
happen to the NMS once the systemic deficit is
finally cleared.
• Probably some leaders and some laggards, as
in EU15.
• But 2010 will have come and long gone before
we find out.
• It would take a braver person still to forecast the
future position of the EU on the European and
world stages.