Transcript No Slide Title

Employment & European Social Fund
The Employment Strategy
and the Lisbon Agenda
- The way towards more and better jobs? -
Luc Tholoniat
European Commission DG Employment
CICERO FOUNDATION PARIS
10 March 2005
Employment & Social Affairs
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The EES and the Lisbon Agenda
• The EES: a complement to other EU instruments
(annual guidelines, recommendations and action plans since 1997)
• A key pillar of the Lisbon Agenda since 2000
• 2002 impact evaluation and 2003 "Kok report"
• 2005: Mid-term review of the Lisbon Agenda
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Main lessons since 1997
• observed progress stopped in 2001/2002
• some evidence of structural "improvements"
• impact on national policies: focus on employment growth;
move towards an active and preventive approach; role of human
capital; quality and productivity at work; gender equality; employmentfriendly reforms of tax/benefits; role of public employment services; use
of indicators and targets; monitoring and evaluation; etc.
 … but no room for complacency
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Necessary path to the 2010 target
Employment & European Social Fund
%
72.0
70%
70.0
68.0
66.0
EU15
64.0
EU25
62.0
Autumn
forecast
Data
60.0
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Sources: Eurostat and Commission's Autumn forecast.
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2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
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GDP, employment and labour productivity growth
1991-1996
1997-2000
2001-2003
1991-2003
EU15
US
EU15
US
EU15
US
EU15
US
1. GDP
1.5
3.3
3.2
4.1
1.0
2.5
2.0
3.2
2. Employment
-0.4
1.6
1.9
2.1
0.4
-0.5
0.6
1.2
3. Labour
productivity (31-2)
1.9
1.7
1.3
2.0
0.6
2.9
1.4
2.0
4. Hours worked per
employed (a)
-0.3
0.3
-0.6
0.5
-0.5
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
5. Hourly labour
productivity (53-4)
2.2
1.3
1.9
1.4
1.1
3.3
1.8
1.7
Sources: DG-ECFIN's Ameco database and the Groningen Growth and Development Centre (GGDC).
a) GGDC data are used to calculate average annual hours worked per employee.
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Is the labour market the main culprit?
• Why a decline in labour productivity growth
compared to the US?
- slowdown in business investment growth
- deterioration in total factor productivity growth
• What hampers economic growth in the EU?
- domestic demand
- global imbalances
 more and better jobs: not just a labour market issue
Employment & Social Affairs
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Employment & European Social Fund
Employment & Social Affairs
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Overall employment rates (cont.)
Pace of progress
since 1997
Rates
in 2003 (%)
> 70
Low
Close to average
High
DK
SE, UK
NL
AT, CY, DE, PT
FI, IE
BE, EL, FR, LU,
LV
ES, HU, IT
65-70
< 65
CZ, EE, LT, MT,
PL, SI, SK
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Female employment rates (cont.)
Pace of progress
since 1997
Low
Close to average
High
> 60
DK
AT, FI, PT, SE, UK
CY, NL
55-60
CZ, EE, LT, SI
DE, FR, LV
IE
< 55
MT, PL, SK
BE, EL, HU
ES, IT, LU
Rates
in 2003 (%)
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Employment rate of older workers (55-64) (cont.)
Pace of progress
since 1997
Low
Close to average
High
> 50
CY, EE
PT, SE
DK, UK
40-50
EL
CZ, ES, LT
FI, IE, LV, NL
< 40
AT, DE, PL, SI,
SK
BE, IT, LU, MT
FR, HU
Rates
in 2003 (%)
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Labour productivity growth and levels
Annual growth rate of real GDP
per person (1997-2003)
Low
Median
High
≥ 110
IT
AT, FI, BE, FR,
LU, NL
IE
75-110
ES
DE, DK, SE, UK
CY, EL, MT
PT
CZ, HU, PL,
SI, SK
GDP per person
employed in ppp
in 2003 (EU25=100)
50-75
≤ 50
EE, LV, LT
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Areas of reforms (1)
Areas where policy response is most visible
• "Making work pay" (tax/benefits reforms)
• Reforming public employment services
• Designing and reviewing lifelong learning strategies
• Facilitating business creation and development
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Areas of reforms (2)
Areas where policy response is mixed
• Ensuring employment-friendly wages and other labour costs
• Promoting flexibility combined with security in the labour
market, but risks of segmentation persist
• Promoting childcare to increase female participation
• Strengthening active labour market policies, but efforts seem
insufficient with rising unemployment, esp. of young people
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Areas of reforms (3)
Areas where policy response is weak
• Developing active ageing strategies
• Improving the level, effectiveness and sharing of investment
in human capital, including reducing early school-leaving
and increasing participation in training of the low-skilled
• Addressing the gender pay gap
• Tackling undeclared work
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The new Lisbon Agenda (1)
Key challenges for the EU
(cf. also Commission's Social Agenda of 9/2/2005)
• Anticipating, triggering & absorbing economic change
• Demographic trends and ageing
• Diversity of performances in the enlarged EU
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The new Lisbon Agenda (2)
Three main objectives
• Make Europe a more attractive place to invest and work
• Support knowledge and innovation for growth
• Create more and better jobs (i.e. full employment; quality
and productivity at work; social and territorial cohesion)
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The new Lisbon Agenda (3)
Key priorities for action
• attract and retain more people in employment and
modernise social protection systems
• improve the adaptability of workers and enterprises
and the functioning of the labour market
• invest more in human capital through better
education and skills
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The new Lisbon Agenda (4)
Next steps
• Spring European Council (March 2005)
• Integrated Guidelines Package (Broad Economic
Policy Guidelines and Employment Guidelines)
• National Lisbon Programmes (Autumn 2005)
• EU Lisbon report (January 2006)
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More information
Commission's Employment, Social Affairs and
Equal Opportunities website:
http://europa.eu.int/comm/
employment_social/index_en.htm
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