Transcript The Economies in Transition Project LINK, New York, 2012

United Nations
Economic Commission
For Europe
The Challenges Facing the Former Transition Economies: Are They in a
Middle Income Trap and Does the Post-2015 Development Agenda
Offer a Solution
Robert C. Shelburne
UN Economic Commission for Europe
Conference on
The Middle-Income Countries Perspective on Sustainable
Development
in the CIS, Eastern and Southern Europe
Minsk, Belarus
May 16-17
Income Groups in the Pan-European Region
Growth Over the Next 10 Years
by Income Level, 1970-2010
EiT
Standard Deviation of Growth by
Income Level
Growth Collapses and
Explosions by Income Level
Probability of a Growth Collapse or
Explosion by Income Level
Average 10-Year Growth of Middle
Income Countries by Year, 1970-2000
Probability of a Growth Collapse or
Explosion by Year
Per Capita Income of USSR/FSU Relative to
World Average
Per Capita Income of EECCA and SEE
Relative to the World and Eurozone
Over the long-term there has been no convergence
in the per capita income of FSU (USSR) with the
USA or Western Europe
Convergence of Per Capita
Incomes Over the Last Decade
Investment in the CIS and Central and Southeast
Europe Relative to All Emerging and Developing
Countries
Saving and Investment as a
Percentage of GDP for the CIS
Saving and Investment as a
Percentage of GDP for Central and
Southeast Europe
Russia’s coming pension crisis
IMF staff projections