Transcript Slide 1
90 Life Expectancy in 2005 (Years) Japan Vietnam 80 China 70 Mexico 60 India 50 Ethiopia Republic of Korea United States Russian Federation South Africa 40 30 $0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 GDP per Capita (2005 PPP $) Earning a lot of money Seeing a lot of the world Becoming well-educated Having a good marriage Having a good relationship with your children Having an interesting job Helping other people who are in need Living a long time Having good friends Having strong religious faith Temperature Change (degrees Celsius) Temperature Change (degrees Celsius) 6 High Projection High Projection 5 4 3 2 1 Low Projection Low Projection 1800 1850 1900 1950 Year Year 2000 2050 2100 Sulfur dioxide emissions per capita (kg) Sulfur dioxide per capita (kg) Kgemissions S02 per Capita 250 - 200 - 150 - 100 - 50 - 00 5000 10000 15000 $ GNP per Capita capita GNPGNP per per capita 20000 25000 CO2 emissions per capita (metric tons) 25 Trinidad and Tobago United States 20 Canada Australia Saudi Arabia 15 Finland Kazakhstan Norway 10 China India Switzerland 5 Portugal Chile 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 GDP per capita (2000 $, PPP) 30000 35000 40000 Ja pa N n et he rla nd s N or w ay Sw U ni ed te en d Ki ng U do ni m te d St at es Ita ly Au st ra l ia C an ad a D en m ar k Fi nl an d Fr an ce G er m an y Percent of total tax revenue 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2005 Population (millions) Average income per capita (US dollars) Energy use per capita (kg oil equivalent) Electricity power consumption per capita (kWh) Carbon dioxide emissions per capita (metric tons) Passenger cars per 1,000 population Global LowerIncome Class Global MiddleIncome Class Global UpperIncome Class 2,343 3,018 1,004 507 2,274 32,112 501 1,373 5,410 358 1,720 9,503 0.8 3.3 12.8 6 51 433 Source: 2006 Little Green Data Book, World Bank. Classification based on Durning, How Much is Enough: The Consumer Society and the Future of the Earth. Stages of Demographic Transition First Stage Both birth and death rates are high. On average the number of children that survive in each family is just enough to keep the population stable or very slowly growing. Second Stage Death rates are reduced, while birth rates stay high, so that parents are typically survived by significantly more than the two children required to replace them. From the eighteenth through twentieth centuries this second stage developed in industrializing countries due to the nutritional advances that followed increased agricultural productivity, and also (especially after about 1850) better medical care and sanitation. Third Stage Birth rates start declining, but are still higher than death rates. The increased availability of contraception and improvements in female education contribute to this stage. In the third stage fertility rates are initially above replacement level, but will eventually drop to or possibly below replacement level. Population growth slows down, though it continues growing because of the number of child-bearing-age women. Fourth Stage Birth rates and death rates equalize at a low rate. Population growth is zero—but the population is considerably larger than it was when the process began. Fifth Stage Birth rates are lower than death rates. When the demographic transition was first conceptualized, the process was expected to stop at the fourth stage. In fact, however, some nations may move fairly rapidly from above- to below-replacement birth rates, passing through the fourth stage of equal birth and death rates. Population actually declines. (a) 1900 (b) 2000 (c) 2040, projected 70 Italy Old-Age Dependency Ratio 60 50 40 30 United States 20 10 China 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 Year 2030 2050