Transcript About CIP (China Industrial Productivity Database) and Its

About CIP (China Industrial
Productivity Database) and
Its Relation with the KLEMS
Harry X. Wu
IER, Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo
The 1st World KLEMS Conference, Harvard
University, August 19-20, 2010
The CIP Plan

The current project is for the period 2010-12

Objective: conceptually standard, consistent
classification, and internationally compatible
database for production function analysis of the
Chinese economy at industry level
The CIP Plan…

Institutional set up of the CIP
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IER/Hitotsubashi-RIETI
Asian KLEMS
TCB China Center
NBS-TCB joint program
The CIP Plan…
Features of the CIP database


Period to be covered: 1980-2010

Industry classification: Based on CSIC2002, linked to
CSIC1972, CSIC1985 and CSIC1994, reconcilable with
the World KLEMS

Labor: numbers employed, adjusted for hours worked;
adjusted for quality by the standard user cost approach;
matching the adjusted input-output tables
The CIP Plan…

Capital: decomposed into production structures,
residential structures and equipment; deflated by
re-constructed industry specific deflators; adjusted
for quality by the standard user costs approach;
matching the adjusted input-output tables

Output: based on input-output tables, adjusted for
inconsistency with industry-level input accounts;
deflated by industry-specific output deflators
Links to my previous work
featured by …

39 (grouped to 24) industries of the industrial
sector from 1949/52-2000/05, satisfying
CSIC1994-CSIC2002 (Chart)
Links to my previous work…
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Employment series, reconstructed and
conceptually adjusted to international standards in
numbers, hours, compensation, and quality
(Table) (Chart),
… in parallel to a tidied version of NBS series on
numbers employed
Links to my previous work…
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Capital stock series, estimated with a novel
approach in deriving flows, constructing initial
stock, measuring prices and determining
depreciation function
Links to my previous work…

Output series, reconstructed to tackle problems in
levels, prices and inconsistencies, in parallel to a
tidied version of NBS series (Chart 2)
Output problems?
Key problems to be solved in CIP

Extending my approach on industries to
services, construction and agriculture

Establishing employment and capital accounts
that match, and logically coherent with, the
national accounts
Key problems to be solved in CIP…
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Employment: serious inconsistency between annual
statistics through the reporting system and population
census (and its annual sample surveys) appeared in 1990,
and further in 2002 onwards (Chart)
Capital: serious inconsistencies between fixed asset
investment, fixed capital formation and actual increase in
capital stock at industry level
Output: serious inconsistencies between industrial statistics
and national accounts (sum up of part of enterprises is
more than the national accounts in value added) (Chart)
The structural break in employment
series
The national accounts are blown up…
1.20
National industrial
GDP & employment
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
Socialist
market
economy
0.20
"Designated
size"
introduced
2004
Census
Ratio of "above-size" (value added)
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0.00
Ratio of "above-size" (employment)