Transcript Slide 1

Humboldt County Economy
2007
Presented to Eureka Old Town Rotary
Club
November 6, 2007
Humboldt County Economy
2007
By Erick Eschker
Department of Economics
Humboldt State University
Humboldt Economic Index
www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum/index.htm
Humboldt Economic Index
Sponsors
Six Sectors and Composite
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•
•
•
•
•
•
Energy
Lumber-based manufacturing
Employment
Hospitality
Retail
Housing
Composite
Energy
• Not much has changed in two years
Humbodt County
Energy Consumption
300
200
100
Electricity
Natural Gas
Jun
S
ep-
Mar
Dec
Sep
Jun
Mar
0
S
epDec
index values
(seasonally adjusted)
Lumber Manufacturing
• Structural Decline but high variability
Lumber-based Manufacturing Index
(seasonally adjusted)
90
80
70
60
Se
p07
Ju
n
M
ar
ec
D
Se
p
Ju
n
M
ar
ec
D
Se
p05
50
The seasonally adjusted Manufacturing index is represented by the blue area in the
graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to
demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.
Employment
• Very little change in overall employment
• Unemployment rate has risen recently
Unemployment Rates
September '06 - September '07
(seasonally adjusted)
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
State
National
County
Se
p
ug
A
Ju
l
Ju
n
ay
M
pr
A
ar
M
Fe
b
Ja
n
ec
D
ov
N
ct
O
Se
p
4.0
Hospitality
• Slight upward trend
Hospitality
Index value
(seasonally adjusted)
95
85
7
n
Ju
M
ar
ec
D
p
Se
n
Ju
M
ar
ec
D
p0
Se
Se
p0
7
75
The seasonally adjusted Hospitality index is represented by the blue area in the
graph above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to
demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.
Retail
• Based on our own survey (we’re always looking
for more data providers!)
Retail
Index value
(seasonally adjusted)
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
Se
p
D
ec
ar
M
Ju
n
Se
p
D
ec
ar
M
Ju
n
Se
p
The seasonally adjusted Retail Index is represented by the blue area in the graph
above. The red line shows the four month moving average which attempts to
demonstrate the overall trend in the data with less monthly volatility.
Housing
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•
•
•
New Real Estate Page on the Index
Significant sales drop since summer 2005
40% drop July-Sept (record drop)
Sales now at 1997 levels
Housing
House Price to Rent Ratio
• Rose very quickly starting in 2003
Composite
• Decline since May
• Housing and Manufacturing the main reason
Seasonally Adjusted Composite Index
115
110
105
100
Sept
'05
Dec
'05
Mar
'06
Jun
'06
Sept
'06
Dec
'06
Mar
'07
Jun
'07
Sep
'07
Forecast
• We don’t do forecasts
• Two local Leading Indicators show slowing
Forecast
• This is an important time
– Recession? Credit Crunch? Inflation?
• Federal Reserve Economist on Oct. 22
• Uncertainty:
– Financial Markets
– Housing
– Energy Prices
– Consumer Spending