Transcript The Humboldt County Economy in 2009 By Erick Eschker

The Humboldt County
Economy in 2009
By Erick Eschker
Presented to Eureka Old Town
Rotary Club
December 2, 2008
The Humboldt County
Economy in 2009
By Erick Eschker
Department of Economics
Humboldt State University
Humboldt Economic Index
www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum
Humboldt Economic Index
Sponsors
Six Sectors and Composite
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Energy
Lumber-based manufacturing
Employment
Hospitality
Retail
Housing
Composite
Gas Prices are down, and will stay
lower as the Recession continues
County Unemployment Rates 3rd
highest since Jan. 1994
Employment has started to fall
• Biggest drops in Construction and
Financial Services (included real estate
agents and lenders)
Leading Indicators:
Claims for Unemployment Insurance
Help Wanted
Housing Sales
Housing Prices
Foreclosures
• Foreclosures in Humboldt County have
gone from record lows to record highs
How far does Housing have to
fall?
Inflation Adjusted Prices slowly falling
Price to Rent ratio falling
Overall Economic Activity is
down this year
National News
• Recession officially started December,
2007
• Exports slowing due to recessions abroad
• Record or near record lows on US
Treasury Bonds (flight to safety)
• Credit Crunch (credit cards and other
lending)
State News
• Budget Crisis
• $11.2bil Deficit
• Governor calls for decreased spending on
CSU, CalWorks, Medical and increased
employer unemployment contributions
Uncertainty for Humboldt
County
• How bad will national recession be?
• When will credit markets stabilize?
• Effect of past and future Bailouts/Stimulus
packages
• Will state employment be cut significantly?
The Humboldt County
Economy in 2009
By Erick Eschker
Department of Economics
Humboldt State University
Humboldt Economic Index
www.humboldt.edu/~indexhum