Transcript Document
Uneven Trends Beneath the Headlines US Bank Outlook Forum Hart Hodges Center for Economic and Business Research Western Washington University December 11, 2012 Outline Risks are easy to find – Impacts are hard to forecast Coming out of the recession – the signals for our region are a bit muddy The fear is often worse than the actual event Differences between major metro and other areas may be growing Programs designed to improve the job market lack a solid foundation Outlook: Continued slow growth and uncertainty Pay attention to differences in economic growth across industry sectors, geography, and age groups Structural or Cyclical ? Inflation ? What to Do ? CBO Forecast (% of GDP) Impact of Next Event ? Overview – Basic Stats King Skagit Whatcom Jobs 1.45 mm 45,000 85,000 Population (2011) 1.97 mm 118,000 203,660 Median Household Income $68,775 $52,519 $51,500 7.4% 9.3% 7.4% Unemployment Border Crossings Influence of the Canadian $ Costco Target 50% of all sales Fred Meyer 50% of all revenue received Gas station is in the top 5 for the US More milk sales than any other Costco 30-50% of sales at Bakerview; less than 30% Lakeway Skagit Estimates Forthcoming 2012.2 2012.1 2011.4 2011.3 2011.2 2011.1 2010.4 2010.3 2010.2 2010.1 2009.4 2009.3 2009.2 2009.1 $800 2008.4 $500 2008.3 $550 2008.2 2008.1 2007.4 2007.3 2007.2 2007.1 Retail Sales $900 $600 $850 Whatcom $550 $750 $500 $700 $650 $450 $600 $400 Skagit $350 $450 $400 $300 Job Growth in the Region… Profession & Business Service Jobs Share of Job Growth (%) 2010 to present Mfg Const. Prof & Business Services Seattle MSA 22 3 25 12 Bellingham MSA 34 34 0 16 Mt. Vernon MSA 8 8 na 0 Retail Construction Jobs A Slow Recovery ? Productivity Real GDP JOBS “Theories” About Job Creation Small businesses create most jobs Start-ups create most jobs Clusters are essential for job creation “Second Stage” companies create most jobs part of “economic gardening” Testing the Theories Firm Age Firm Size Job Growth Industry Sector Location (county) Average Wage Findings… So Far You can get any result you want Change how you measure job growth Change how you account for time or size Etc. Very, very little explanatory power in the models ! Concern: Very little foundation for job creation programs… which means good results only by luck Conclusions Efforts to increase job creation may not be that helpful The labor force has gotten smaller and older with differences in the job mix in major metro areas versus smaller areas Job growth in this region may continue to lag behind Seattle in the near-term (it could be worse) Slower population growth suggests slower growth in retail sales Thank You ! [email protected] 650-3909