Transcript Title Level 1 Title Level 2 - Western CEDAR

Using Local Polling to Provide
Relevant Science
Skagit Climate Science Consortium
Larry Wasserman and Carol Macilroy
Salish Sea Conference
March 2016
Today
• Brief background on SC2 - Why local polling?
• Skagit County 2015 Global Warming Perceptions
Polling Results
• How Results Affected SC2 Outreach and
Engagement
Skagit River Watershed
3rd largest river in Western US
Six species of wild salmon
4 Native American Tribes
1/3 fresh water to Puget Sound
Most glaciers (394) in Lower US
Two hydroelectric complexes
Three counties – Human population
centers in Skagit County
US/Canada
SC2 – Skagit Climate Science Consortium
• 501 c(3) Nonprofit – 2014 (meeting since 2009)
• Mission
– Foster collaborative Skagit climate research
– Produce relevant climate science products
– Link people with scientists and scientific information
SC2 – Skagit Climate Science Consortium
• Members Come From:
– Western Washington University
– University of Washington Climate Impacts Group
– US Geological Survey, US Forest Service, Nat. Park Service
– NOAA – National Marine Fisheries Service
– Seattle City Light
– Pacific Northwest National Labs (Battelle)
– Skagit River System Cooperative
– Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
– University of Notre Dame
Survey Partners
Skagit Climate Science Consortium (SC2)
Yale Project for Climate Change Communications
Sample Surveyed
• County-wide survey of Skagit County residents
• 1,000 random digit dial telephone interviews
• Conducted in May 2015
• Offered in Spanish
• Average interview
length: 24 minutes
Skagit
County,
Washington
Overview of Survey Findings
• Skagit County residents aware of climate challenge
• Recognize risks associated with climate
• Underestimate magnitude of key known risks
• Want others and themselves to prepare and to act
• Need more information
Skagit County residents aware of the
general “climate challenge”
79% believe global warming is real
59%
believe it is human-caused
Recognize Risks Associated with
Climate Change
65%
are worried about global warming
65% believe Skagit County will be harmed within 25
years
31%
think the Skagit County area and its residents
are already being harmed
Climate Impacts Locally Identified, but
Skagit Residents Underestimate
Large Majorities – Important to Prepare
73%
believe it is important to prepare for the effects
of global warming
Who Does Public Think Should Act
66%
Federal
65%
State
60%
Local government
Should Act
57%
Businesses
57-62%
NGO’s
65%
Individuals should act
Skagit County Residents Need
Information
30%
Need more information to protect themselves and
their families
Conclusion
• Aware and concerned
• Don’t fully understand climate impacts and
consequences
• Motivated to act
• Want others to act
• Want information
Who is Most Concerned?
Where do they go for Information?
Who is Most Concerned?
• Highly “formally educated” younger women
• Democrats
• Under age 30 (90%) vs. those over age 48 (76%)
• Lower incomes concerned about current risk:
42% under $20,000 vs. 26% over $100,000
• Lower incomes concerned about future impacts:
53% under $100,000 vs. 38% over $100,000
Where do People Get Climate Related
Information
Majorities:
– local TV news and radio (67%), newspapers (49%)
– national network (67%) and cable news (57%)
– PBS (59%)
Those under 30 same as general public but add in:
– Social media (64%) and slightly higher percentages on
local sources including local news websites
How did survey findings affect our work?
What Has Changed for SC2?
• Scientists have more confidence in receptive audience
• Improved ability to see website usage
• Validated importance of SC2 outreach efforts
– KSVR interviews and radio shows
– Skagit Valley Herald “climate series”
– Seattle Times “climate insert”
– Anacortes effort
• Improved Communication Tools
What Changed?
• Scientists have more confidence in receptive audience
• Improved ability to see website usage
• Validated importance of SC2 outreach efforts
– KSVR interviews and radio shows
– Skagit Valley Herald “climate series”
– Seattle Times “climate insert”
– Anacortes effort
• Improved Communication Tools
2040s Changes in Flood Risk Skagit
River at Mount Vernon (2011)
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downscaling Approach
2040s Changes in Flood Risk Skagit
River at Mount Vernon
WHAT?
Historical
10 Member Ensemble
Using the Hybrid Delta
Downscaling Approach
By 2040’s a 22-year event -- not a 100-year event
STILL LEARNING!
More to come as we continue to test if changes are
working and adapt.
Survey Results:
http://www.skagitclimatescience.org/polling-deck/
Educational Resources/Infographics:
http://www.skagitclimatescience.org/resources/educati
onal-resources/
THANK YOU FOR YOUR INTEREST!
For more information, contact Carol MacIlroy at
[email protected] or 206–293-4741.
www.skagitclimatescience.org
Thank You
This project has been funded in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency under assistance agreement
00J30901-0 to the Swinomish Indian Tribal Community. The contents of this website do not necessarily reflect the views and
policies of the Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute
endorsement or recommendation for use. Additional support has graciously been provided by the Yale Program on Climate
Change Communication, City of Anacortes and Seattle City Light.