Transcript DoD OSINT Program: A Speculative Review

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DoD OSINT Program:
A Speculative Review
Robert David Steele
Founder, USMC Intelligence Command
Founder, OSS Network
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The OSINT Marketplace
Federal Marketplace
US Spends Today: $250M
Needs to Spend: $1.5B
Other Governments Should Spend an
Equal Amount.
TOTAL: $3B/Year
Corporate Marketplace
Multinationals Today: $12-15B
• Mostly “BI” or IT
• Mediocre CI or external à la carte
small stuff
Small Business Today: $1B
Should Increase by 10X
TOTAL: $100B/Year
State & Local Marketplace
50 States Spend Today: $0
Need to Spend: $1.5B in HS funds
($30M/state) for Community
Intelligence Centers/networks
Others should follow along.
TOTAL: $3B/Year
Associational Marketplace
UN, Red Cross, Amnesty International,
others: $100M
Need to Spend: $1B+
Religions, Clans, and Citizen
Intelligence are the Wild Cards-potential for Google customers alone is
$8B on a bell curve from $5 to $5000 a
year, with $500 as the average.
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OSINT Matters I
• "By `intelligence' we
mean every sort of
information about the
enemy and his country-the basis, in short, of our
own plans and
operations."
Clausewitz, On War, 1832
Emphasis Added.
You get no points for just knowing
secrets when they are less than 2%
of what you need to know.
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OSINT Matters II
What’s on the other side of the hill?
All the business of war, and indeed all the business of life, is to endeavor to
find out what you don’t know by what you do; that’s what I called “guessing
what was at the other side of the hill”.
Duke of Wellington
quoted in John Wilson Croker, The Croker Papers (1884)
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OSINT Matters III
Strategic
Planning
This is what got General
Schoomaker’s attention.
• History
• Context
Operational
Coordination
• Current Awareness
• Key Personalities/Motivators
Tactical
Employment
• Imagery & Image Maps
• Translation Support
Acquisition
Design
• Strategic Generalizations
• Critical Technologies
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Brief History of OSINT
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Diplomats diminished
FBIS in WW II
FBIS going, going….
FRD on the margin
ER&A cut, cut, cut
We do secrets
“On your own time…”
“Use the Internet”
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USMC Intelligence Experience
• 1988 MCIC start-up
• $10M on DODIIS
• Learned 90% raw info
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Not secret
Not online
Not in English
Not available from DC
• No DoD focal point
• No knowledge base
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US IC Response
• HPSCI Forced the
Issue in 1992
• FBIS claimed the turf
and promptly blew it
• COSPO created, DIA
led & screwed it up
• Markowitz tried hard,
Dempsey blocked
• Tenet June 1997 slam
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Meanwhile….
• 1994 Steve Emerson got
it right on jihad within
the US
• 1996 Yossef Bodansky
got it right on BL’s
declaration of war
• 1997 Pete Schoomaker
established SOCOM
OSINT
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DoD OSINT Today
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OSD POC Died
DIA stopped OSINT
No DoD Doctrine
No DoD Budget
CINCS & Services &
Agencies spending
around $25M in
complete disorder &
mostly on data mining
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Data Mining is not Data Capture
• Spending $250M on
data mining, and less
than $10M on open
source data capture, is
not cool.
• 80% of what we need
is not available to
Forget about the letter, which
FBIS or anyone else as
requires reading the language,
we are now unled, unI’ve got the stamp…so pretty!
funded, and untrained.
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Meanwhile….
• 2003 SecDef quotes
Bin Laden training
manual as saying Al
Qaeda gets 80% of its
intelligence from
OSINT but…
• Ramps up OPSEC
(good) but does not
establish DoD OSINT
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Good News I
• JWAC $14M
• SOCOM OSINT $1M+
• Army OSINT Lab $3M
(U. New Mexico)
• PACOM VIC (J-8)
surviving J-2 attacks
• EUCOM, other CINCs
spending $500K each
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Good News II
• Pete Dorn did some
good on the SSCI
– $4.5M to Kansas
– $5.5M to JFCOM
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NSA AIRIES $10M?
CIA/DI $2M?
OMB Code M320
SASC Thinking…
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Good News III
• Dr. Cambone gets it.
• 27 Feb 03 Exchange
with Senator Warner
• “Six Points Speech”
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Universal coverage
Strategic warning
Agile, flexible
Intelligent intelligence
Real-time, real-world
“Exquisite intelligence”
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Proposed DoD OSINT Program
• $125M start year
• $1.5B FOC by 2010
• Corporations go on to:
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$150B/yr Corporate BI
$15B/yr Small Business BI
$8B/yr Google a la carte
$1.5B/yr Homeland Security
$1.5B/yr Foreign HS
$1B+/yr UN/NGO
• It all starts with DoD…..
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World War III Players
NationStates
Private
Sector
Bacteria
Education vs. Catastrophe
Homo Sapiens vs. Bacteria
Governments vs. Gangs
Citizens
Citizens vs. Corporations
Gangs
Mother Earth
Water-Air-Green
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New Craft of Intelligence
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Narrowly focused!
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IV
Lessons of History
Spies & Secrecy
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III
Global Coverage
National Intelligence
Cost-Sharing with Others-Shared Early Warning
Harness distributed
intelligence of Nation
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Baker’s Dozen Approach
• Digital History Project
• NGO Data Warehouse
• Global Coverage
Virtual International
Task Forces
• Generic Open Source
Intelligence Training
(for all seven tribes)
• JFCOM Lead to Create
Generic Analytic Tool-Kit
• Five Regional OSINT
Centers (Multi-National)
• International Trade Center
• Digital Marshall Plan
(also JFCOM/ATC lead)
• University of the Republic
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Digital History Project
• Digital History Project will, within one
year, digitize essential Chinese & Islamic
pages, and such other foreign language
historical, political, economic, social, and
related information, as needed to create a
foundation for rapidly visualizing and
modeling historical information relevant to
current and projected threats.
$5M Yr 1
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NGO Data Warehouse
• NGO Data Warehouse and Network will
provide free storage and network access to
all NGOs, and will in cooperation with the
Pearson Peacekeeping Center in Canada,
the International Committee of the Red
Cross, and selected lead elements of the
NGO community, put vital NGO “local
knowledge” online for US use.
$10M Yr 1
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Global Coverage Teams
• Global Coverage “Virtual International Task
Forces” will establish a series of topical task
forces to manage global force protection
monitoring and rapid response surge
assessments. A special emphasis will be
placed on long-term topics not qualifying
for classified collection and analysis but
still vital to national security.
$10M Yr 1
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Generic OSINT Training
• Generic Open Source Intelligence Training
Program will create distance learning
modules as well as 4-person MTT to visit
every CINC, every ally, every Embassy,
every NGO, and key universities as well as
key corporations, all of which will be
voluntarily integrated into a global
information-sharing grid. Early emphasis
will be on shared templates for data capture.
$10M Yr 1
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Generic Analytic Tool-Kit
• JFCOM, perhaps building on the Future
Intelligence Collaborative Environment
(FICE) will develop a generic multi-media
analytic toolkit integrating all eighteen of
the functionalities identified in 1985 by the
Office of Scientific & Weapons Research.
This tool-kit will be readily available to all
seven intelligence tribes, internationally.
$10M Yr 1
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Regional OSINT Centers
• Regional multi-national and multi-tribal
OSINT Centers will be established by each
of the five area commanders including
NORTHCOM. Such centers will fully
leverage indigenous allied and coalition
partner access to local knowledge that is not
digital, and to native language skills not
available to US forces.
$50M Yr 1
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Regional Intelligence Center
Chief of Center
Singapore
Deputy for Collection
Australia
OSINT
HUMINT
IMINT
SIGINT
Deputy for Processing
Malaysia
Digitization
Translation
Visualization
Analytic Support
Deputy for Counterintelligence
Japan
Deputy for Analysis
China
Warning
Estimative
Countries
Issues
Deputy for Covert Action
Thailand
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International Trade Center
• An International Trade Center and Chamber
of Commerce Network will establish a webbased means of connecting and leveraging
the local knowledge of all US General
Managers stationed overseas, while
enhancing US business access to risk and
other warning information funded by the
DoD OSINT Program.
$5M Yr 1
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Digital Marshall Plan
• The Digital Marshall Plan, with JFCOM
(and ATC in the lead for NATO) will fund
the accelerated introduction of Internet
connectivity to areas now “dark” for U.S.
forces, with a special emphasis on Muslim
countries. Abandoned DoD satellite
bandwidth will be repurposed to provide
free T-3 connectivity where possible.
$10M Yr 1
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University of the Republic
• The University of the Republic, with a
Global Outreach Program, will bring
together and educate “cohorts” of promising
entry-level, mid-career, and senior-level
subject-matter experts from across all seven
tribes and across all nations, in this manner
creating a multi-generational international
SME reserve expert on all topics/countries.
$15M Yr 1
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Conflict Facts for 2002
23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Pol Terror Level 3
Imprisonment, executions
Pol Terror Level 4
Large numbers, torture
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Pol Terror Level 5
Entire public, no limits
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Global Threats to Local Survival
Complex Emergencies
32 Countries
Water Scarcity &
Contaminated Water**
Refugees/Displaced
66 Countries
Ethnic Conflict 18
Genocides Today**
Food Security
33 Countries
Resource Wars, Energy
Waste & Pollution**
Modern Plagues*
59 Countries & Rising
Corruption Common
80 Countries
Child Soldiers
41 Countries
Censorship Very High
62 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide),
Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
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Four Different Threats to America:
Require Four Different Security Approaches
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
HIGH TECH
PRECISION
BRUTES
TARGETING
(BIG WAR)
ECONOMIC
WAR
HIGH TECH
CYBER STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
GUERRILLA
WAR
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
SEERS
(HOME)
CULTURAL
WAR
NATURAL
LOW TECH
STEALTH,
BRUTES
RANDOM
(GANGS)
TARGETING
TERRORISM
LOW TECH
SEERS
IDEO -
(POOR)
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
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NATO OSINT
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European Intelligence Network
• Open borders demand
regional intelligence
• Decades of lax control
over immigration &
citizenship demand
aggressive policing
• EUROPOL won’t do
• Europe has a chance to
do something brilliant
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New Strategy: 1 + iii:
Need better balance within national security.
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CINCWAR
CINCSOLIC
CINCPEACE
CINCHOME
Strategic NBC
Small Wars
State/USIA
Intelligence
Big War(s)
Constabulary
Peace Corps
Border Patrol
Reserve
Ground Truth
Economic Aid
Port Security
Reserve
Environment
Electronic
Peace Navy
Public Health
50%
250B vs. 400B
15%
75B vs 20B
20%
100B vs. 20B
15%
75B vs. 32B
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We Can Do This!
• Lead to the Big Dogs:
– Lockheed Martin
– Northrop Grumman
– Boeing, Booz, etc.
• Help Each Other or
Get Out of the Way
• OSINT Professional
Association Needed?
• OSINT has arrived.