Transcript QLD State Budget 2009/10

THE IMPORTANCE OF MINING TO CAIRNS
ADDRESS TO THE
CAIRNS & MINING CONFERENCE
W S (Bill) Cummings
Cummings Economics
J2630 | 12th June 2013
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CAIRNS : MAJOR ECONOMIC ROLE
CAIRNS : REGIONAL CAPITAL SERVICING QUEENSLAND’S NORTHERN HALF 9°S - 19°S
SERVICES HUB
• Transport
• Distribution
• Manufacturing
• Retailing
• Communications
• Government administration
• Education
• Health
• Business & professional
services
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CAIRNS & IMMEDIATE HINTERLAND
LARGEST REGIONAL POPULATION (ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL)
IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA
250000
236992
229543
227089
186932
200000
175702
150000
100000
50000
0
Cairns (1)
Townsville (1)
Fitzroy (1)
NT Top End (2) Mackay (1)
Note (1): SA Level 4
Note (2): Darwin SA Level 4 plus Katherine, East & West Arnhem
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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BY FAR LARGEST NUMBER OF REGISTERED BUSINESSES
(INCLUDING MANUFACTURING)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Cairns Region Fitzroy Region
Townsville
Region
Mackay
Region
Darwin Region
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
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STRENGTHS IN SERVICING
MINING ACTIVITY FURTHER AFIELD
o Size of workforce
o Number, diversity, range of businesses
o North’s major air hub
o Northern terminus Australia’s east coast rail, road &
air services
o Major coastal shipping & marine industries base
o Lifestyle advantages
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TROPICAL, PREVIOUSLY UNDER DEVELOPED AREA
(RESOURCE POTENTIAL JUST BEING REALISED)
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MINERAL OCCURRENCES IN QUEENSLAND
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2010/11
2009/10
2008/09
2007/08
2006/07
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
1996/97
1995/96
1994/95
1993/94
1992/93
1991/92
1990/91
1989/90
1988/89
1987/88
1986/87
1985/86
1984/85
1983/84
1982/83
VALUE MINERAL PRODUCTION FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Mines & Energy data.
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POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF PRODUCTION
CAPE YORK BAUXITE
AURUKUN & CAPE ALUMINA
DEPOSITS WORTH ABOUT $20 BILLION
RIO TINTO
CURRENT – $500M PA (1)
STAGED INCREASE TO - $1300M PA (1)
(1) NOT INCLUDING TRANSPORT.
CONSTRUCTION
FIFO – 2,000 BED CAMP
DIRECT EXPENDITURE TOTAL APPROX $1.3BN
FNQ APPROX $500M
HINTERLAND
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MAP OF EQUIDISTANT FLYING DISTANCES
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AIR ROUTES TO MINES & MINING RELATED CENTRES
QUEENSLAND & NORTHERN TERRITORY
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WORKFORCE IN MINING IN FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE
BY PLACE OF WORK
DIFFERENCE
2006
1313
694
624
2011
2759
1318
1446
GROWTH
+110%
+90%
+132%
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Census data.
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TOTAL ESTIMATED FIFO WORKFORCE
TOTAL CAIRNS RESIDENTS SAYING PLACE OF WORK
2916
OUTSIDE CAIRNS REGION ACROSS THE NORTH
ESTIMATED FIFO/DIDO WORKFORCE ASSOCIATED
2000
WITH MINING
ESTIMATED FIFO WORKFORCE INCOME OF ORDER OF $200 M
PLUS AVIATION INDUSTRY IMPACT UNKNOWN
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NON-WORKFORCE EXPENDITURE BY
MINES IN REGION FROM WITHIN AUSTRALIA
ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE IN
$146 M
CAIRNS LGA BY QRC MEMBERS
ESTIMATED TOTAL IN CAIRNS REGION
INCLUDING TABLELANDS & CASSOWARY APPROX $200 M
COAST PLUS OTHER MINES
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PAPUA NEW GUINEA & PAPUA INDONESIA
FIFO INCOME ($ UNKNOWN) |OTHER R&R AND TRANSIT ($ UNKNOWN) | AIR FREIGHT ($45M)
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TONNAGES SHIPPED THROUGH FNQ SEAPORTS 2009/10
MACKAY REGION (INCLUDING ABBOTT POINT) 99M TONNES
FITZROY REGION (INCLUDES GLADSTONE) 79M TONNES
BRISBANE/SOUTH EAST QUEENSLAND 32M TONNES
SOUTH AUSTRALIA 25M TONNES
CAIRNS/FAR NORTH REGION 22M TONNES
NORTHERN TERRITORY 21M TONNES
TASMANIA 19M TONNES
TOWNSVILLE/NORTHERN REGION 10M TONNES
Source: Cummings Economics from Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport & Regional Economics..
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GENERAL CARGO SHIPPING TO MINES
SEASWIFT, PERKINS, FREEPORT MCMORAN; EST 100 CONTAINERS A WEEK; EST VALUE OF CARGO $300M
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OTHER
o CORPORATE OFFICES – CAPE FLATTERY
SILICA, FREEPORT, BARRICK, INTEROIL
o EDUCATION & TRAINING
o EXPLORATION
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BASE METAL PRICE MOVEMENTS : 5 YEARS
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CAIRNS’ ADVANTAGE NOT DEPENDENT ON ONE
MINERAL OR ONE AREA.
GOOD PROSPECTS OF A POSITIVE
STIMULUS IN FORESEEABLE FUTURE
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THE IMPORTANCE OF MINING TO CAIRNS
ADDRESS TO THE
CAIRNS & MINING CONFERENCE
W S (Bill) Cummings
Cummings Economics
J2630 | 12th June 2013
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