Transcript Cummings Economics

Cummings
Economics
The Cairns Economy
Recent Movements and Short-Term Prospects
Presentation to the
Cairns Chamber of Commerce Luncheon
October 2006
Bill Cummings - Principal
 Cummings Economics
 Compass Research
 North Australia Research Group
Cummings Economics
Ph 4031 2888 Fax 4031 1108
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.cummings.net.au
Last Year’s Prediction
 GROWTH WOULD MODERATE
ON THE RECORD 2004/05 YEAR,
BUT REMAIN HIGH.
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
$M
0
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
Value of Building Approvals
Far North Qld Statistical Division
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Source : ABS.
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Cairns Airport – Domestic & International Terminals
Total Arriving & Departing Passengers
% Increase on same month Previous Year 2005/06
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
Oct
Nov
Dec
Source : CPA
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Growth in Room Nights - Hotels Motels
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Source : ABS.
2005/06
2004/05
2003/04
2002/03
2001/02
2000/01
1999/00
1998/99
1997/98
-2.0%
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Evidence of Strong
Economic & Population Growth





NEWSPAPER SALES
HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS
LOW RENTAL VACANCY RATES
HIGH JOB ADVERTISING RATES
WIDESPREAD REPORTS OF
LABOUR SHORTAGES
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
 NON-TOURISM GROWTH
“KICKING IN”
 IMPACTS OF
“CYCLONE LARRY”
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October 2006
“Cyclone Larry”
 IMPACTS ON
STOCK/WEALTH
 IMPACTS ON
FLOWS
EXPENDITURE
EMPLOYMENT
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Estimated Primary Industry Losses
Bananas
Sugar Cane
Sugar Mills
Other Tropical fruits & nuts
$283 m
$74 m
$37 m
$58 m
Other (forestry, vegetables,
maize, dairy)
TOTAL
$22 m
Source : DPIF Operation Recovery,
Industry Action Group.
$474 m
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October 2006
Insurance Claims
Domestic Households
Commercial & Industrial
Rural
Motor Vehicles, Aviation & Marine
Business Interruption
Other
TOTAL
Source : Insurance Council of Aust.
$237 m
$82 m
$83 m
$8 m
$5 m
$8 m
$423 m
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October 2006
Cyclone Relief
Larry
Centre Link Delivered
(to end Sep)
QRAA & DSD - Loans & Grants
(to end Sep)
National Disaster Funds
(to end Jun)
Monica
TOTAL
Say towards :
$184 m
$7 m
$4 m
(approx) $70 m
$5 m
$266 m
$350 m
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Timing of Impacts
Major Negative
- IMMEDIATE
Positive Relief &
Reconstruction
- SUBSTANTIAL
AMOUNTS STILL
TO COME
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October 2006
Non-Tourism Growth Favourable
 MARKETS STRONG FOR
PRIMARY PRODUCTS
 MINING RISING
 SERVICE SECTOR EXPORTS
EXPANDING
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October 2006
Looking Forward

STRONG TOURISM GROWTH PHASE
COMMENCING 2001 - OVER

BOOSTED TOURISM FLOWS BY ABOUT
A THIRD
 EXCHANGE RATES HIGH
 AIRFARE REDUCTIONS OVER
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October 2006
Domestic Air Fare Trends
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October 2006
Current & Prospective New Mining
Operations Identified
Peninsula/
Cooktown (8)
Mareeba/
Chillagoe (10)
Mt Garnet (4)
Bauxite
2
Tungsten
2
Zinc Copper
2
Kaolin
1
Gold
1
Diatomite
1
Silica
1
Copper/Zinc
2
Nickel
1
Tin
1
Tin
2
Gold
1
Perlite
1
Gold
2
Copper
1
L:imestone
2
Copper
1
Slate
1
Silica
1
Einasleigh/
Georgetown (4)
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October 2006
27% of Australia’s Water Run Off
Major River Basins - Mean Annual Runoff Megalitres
23.8 m
22.9 m
25
20
15
8.2 m
10
5
0
Murray/Darling
Basin
Mitchell River
Basin
Burdekin River
Basin
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October 2006
List Crops Mareeba Dimbulah
Irrigation Area
Aquaculture
Barramundi
Freshwater Crayfish
Fruits
Avocado
Bananas Cavendish
Bananas Ladyfinger
Citrus – Lemons
Citrus – Limes
Citrus – Mandarins
Citrus – Grapefruit
Citrus – Oranges
Citrus – Pummelo
Citrus – Tangelo
Custard Apples
Nuts – Macadamia
Nuts – Cashew
Nuts – Coconuts
Dates
Longans
Lychee
Mangoes
Pineapple
Watermelon
Grapes
Passion fruit
Dragon fruit
Vegetables
Potatoes
Sweet potatoes
Asparagus
Zucchini
Onion
Sweet Corn
Pumpkins
Beverages
Coffee
Forestry
African
Mahogany
Caribbean Pine
Fibre Crops
Kenaf
Hemp
Bamboo
Grain Crops
Peanuts
Maize
Navy Bean
Grain Sorghum
Herbs
Stevia
Basil
Chilli
Shallots
Ornamental/
Garden Horticulture
Native Plants/Foliage
Flowers
Nurseries
Turf
Pasture/Fodder Crops
Hay
Seed
Feed legumes
Seed Iablab
Lupins
Lucerne
Sweet sorghum
Livestock
Cattle
Cattle – Lot feeding
Chicken meat
Eggs
Pigs
Goats
Horses
Aviary birds
Other
Sugar Cane
Tea Tree
The Cairns Economy www.cummings.net.au
October 2006
New Bio Products





DIETARY FIBRE
CHOCOLATES
LOW G SUGAR
SUGAR JUICE
COFFEE ROASTING






TROPICAL WINERIES
DRIED FRUITS
BIO FUELS
METHANE GAS
BANANA FIBRE PAPER
SAUCES & CONDIMENTS
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October 2006
Population – Comparative Size
Comparative Populations – Northern Australia
Census Count 2001
100,000
63,145
222,428
135,142
126,364
84,716
150,000
109,419
195,819
200,000
62,845
143,578
250,000
252,715
Region
210,664
City
300,000
50,000
(1
)
s
ai
rn
C
To
w
ns
vi
lle
Q
Q
ld
ld
(2
)
(3
)
ar
w
in
ha
m
oc
k
R
D
Q
pt
on
Q
ay
ac
k
M
NT
ld
(5
)
ld
(6
)
be
rle
y/
Pi
lb
ar
a
im
K
(4
)
0
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Estimated Residential Population
Growth 1996 to 2005
Cairns Hinterland
(Balance FNQ SD
plus Gulf)
Townsville Hinterland
(Balance Northern SD plus
Bowen, plus Mt Isa area)
+10,242
(-1,854)
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October 2006
Number of Manufacturing Locations
Queensland Regions 2001/02
No.
1400
1200
1000
800
600
1320
1250
1201
981
400
779
778
Fitzroy
Region
Mackay
200
0
Darling
Downs
Wide Bay
Burnett
Source : ABS
Townsville/
Cairns/
North
Far North
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October 2006
Services Outside Earnings
 Mining operations rest of Qld, NT, Papua (Indonesia), PNG
 Maritime industries including super yachts
 Aviation services
 Education
 Printing & publishing
 Music & Performing Arts, Visual Arts & design
 Advertising, Marketing, Business services
 Health Services
NON-LEISURE TOURISM
 Conferences
 Sports & Events
DEFENCE & SURVEILLANCE
The Cairns Economy www.cummings.net.au
October 2006
Roads Expenditure
KENNEDY Hwy
(west of Mt Garnet)
$17 m
BRUCE Hwy
(Cairns/Townsville)
$220 m
KURANDA RANGE Rd
$500 m plus
PENINSULA
DEVELOPMENTAL Rd
$200 m plus
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
Looking Forward

SLOWER TOURISM GROWTH

CONTINUING STRONG
ECONOMIC & POPULATION GROWTH
due to

CYCLONE REBUILDING

NON-TOURISM GROWTH
The Cairns Economy
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October 2006
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