Transcript Posthumus_presentationx - USA National Phenology Network

Natural resource applications of the
phenology data and information housed
in the National Phenology Database
Erin Posthumus and the
Staff of the National Coordinating Office,
USA National Phenology Network
Phenology Informs Resource Management
• Indicator of biological responses to climate change
• Informs:
• Abundance and distribution of species
• Functioning of ecosystems (e.g. carbon cycling)
• Ecosystem services (e.g. pollination)
Enquist et al. 2014 Int J Biometeorol
What is USA-NPN all about…
• Advance science
• Inform management
• Communicate & connect
Mean growing season length (d) 2001-2006
Ganguly et al. 2010
Collect • Store • Share
phenology data, data products & information
USA-NPN Capacity
Data Products
Non-standard or
Historical data
National Phenology Database
USA-NPN Standard Protocols
Types of Phenology Data Collected
Activity
Reproduction
Event
Status
Status &
Abundance
Day of year
Development
• >6M observation records
• > 8,000 sites
• Primarily 2009-present
• >1,000 plant and animal taxa
• Standardized protocols
(Denny et al., 2014)
• QA/QC documented
www.nn.usanpn.org
OMB Control #: 1028-0103
Quality Assurance/Quality Control
Available at
www.usanpn.org/pubs/reports
Quality Assurance/Quality Control
• Volunteers contribute
~$2.5B annually to
biodiversity research
• Scientific value often
under estimated
“Good citizen science gets us fine grain, broad
extent data we can't collect, or afford to collect,
any other way,” - author Julia Parrish
Density of phenology records
curated by USA-NPN
2009 - May 2015
Data Download Tool
www.usanpn.org/results/data
Data structure
Raw data:
Species
Lat/Long
DOY
Year
Breaking leaf buds?
Acer rubrum
38.76N, 121.8W
Jan 31
2015
N
Acer rubrum
38.76N, 121.8W
Feb 16
2015
N
Acer rubrum
38.76N, 121.8W
Mar 3
2015
Y
Summarized data:
Species
Lat/Long
Year
Breaking leaf
buds – first
Yes
Breaking leaf
buds – days since
last No
Acer rubrum
38.76N, 121.8W
2015
Mar 3
15
Data visualization
Red maple/Breaking leaf buds (2014)
Red maple/Open flowers (2014)
From the National Phenology Database
Piao et al., 2015
USA-NPN data:
• Leaf-out dates
• Syringa spp.
• 35 sites
• 1982-2011
Spring leaf unfolding triggered
more by daytime temps than
nighttime temps
From the National Phenology Database
Yue et al., 2015
USA-NPN data:
• 52 species
• 1,147 sites
• 1982-2012
From the National Phenology Database
Mazer et al., 2015
USA-NPN data:
• 4 species
• 2011-2014
• NPS units across
CA
Planned for spring 2016:
• Gridded maps of spring onset based on PRISM (19812014; 4km)
• 7-day forecasts for start of spring (2.5 km)
• Accumulated temperature maps, anomaly maps
How has the arrival of spring
changed in natural protected areas?
Monahan et al. in prep.
Applications: Will spring be extreme
relative to other years at a site?
Lead time to look out for:
• Potential for mismatch
between interacting
species
• Potential impacts to
species that visitors
focus on (eg, cherry
blooms)
Alliaria petiolata
Photo credit: Jody Shimp, Illinois Department of Natural
Resources from Invasive.org.
Applications: Invasive species control
Applications: Wildfire Season
An unusually early and
warm spring can mean a
more intense fire season
Photo credit: Denver Post
Applications: Getting professional and
citizen observers out at the right time
• Catching
phenophases of
interest
• Rare plant
monitoring and seed
collection
Accumulated temperature (GDD)
Applications: Mobilizing to protect nut trees
Budburst
No risk of
frost damage
Jan 1
Time
Image: northernpecans.blogspot.com
More risk of frost damage
Access those data!
Red maple/Breaking leaf buds (2014)
Red maple/Open flowers (2014)
www.usanpn.org/data/visualizations
Research partnerships
• We’ll promote your research
• Need data? Consider a campaign…
Acknowledgements
The more than 6,000 dedicated volunteer observers
participating in Nature’s Notebook
Thank you!
Connect with USA-NPN
• Sign up for a bimonthly enewsletter for phenology
observers
• Sign up for a bimonthly
e-newsletter for our
Partners
• Sign up for quarterly enewsletter for FWS staff
and Friends group
members
• Join the Local Phenology
Leaders listserv
• Find us on Facebook
Contact:
Erin Posthumus
[email protected]
520-621-1670