Transcript Alyssa Wed AM talk - USA National Phenology Network

Phenology, Climate Change and
the USA-NPN
Alyssa Rosemartin
University of Arizona
www.usanpn.org
How might species respond
to climate change?
•
•
•
•
No change
Extinction
Move with climate
Stay, but adapt
– Morphology
– Phenology
EARLIER
A three-way
mismatch
English Oak
Winter Moth
EARLIER
SAME TIME
EACH YEAR
Pied Flycatcher
Both et al. 2006 Nature
Phenology
Study of timing of plant &
animal life cycle events
How else might phenology impact
species, ecosystems and humans?
Shifting Phenology in the Catalinas
- Timing of spring flowering
- Low elevation species most influenced by
precipitation & temperatures of the previous fall
- High elevation species are more affected by spring
temperatures, more like temperate systems
- Timing of summer flowering
- Highly variable
- Tied to monsoon onset across elevations
Crimmins et al. 2010
Shifting Phenology in the Catalinas
• 26% of species show some sort of change in
flowering range:
– 13% species exhibited “range shift upslope”
– 37% species exhibited “range expansion upslope”
– 25% species exhibited “range contraction upslope”
Crimmins et al. 2009
Shifting Phenology
1977: 3,000 Brant
overwintered in
Alaska
Today: 40,000
overwinter
Ward et al. 2009
Shifting Phenology
Year
Weishampel et al. 2004 GCB
Relationship to Populations & Distributions
Populations & Distributions
Increasing
+
0
Decreasing
Change in phenology
Willis et al. 2008 PNAS
Moller et al. 2008 PNAS
Willis et al. 2010 PLOS Biology
Hulme 2010 New Phyt.
Shifting Phenology
Fotolia
Red admiral: 1 day earlier/year
Steve Scott
Field skipper: 1 day earlier/year
Forister and Shapiro 2003 GCB
Applications and decision-support tools
• Science
• Predictive services
• Health
• Resource mgmt
• Conservation
• Agriculture
• Ecosystem services
• Recreation
Timing of Management Practices
Juniper Pollen Project
Juniper Phenology
Observations
Satellite Imagery
Predictive Modeling
Allergen Alerts
“Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in
which to track changes in the ecology of species
in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007)
What is USA-NPN?
What is USA-NPN?
The USA National Phenology Network brings together…
citizen scientists,
government agencies,
non-profit groups,
educators and
students of all ages
to monitor the impacts of climate on plants and animals in
the United States.
What is USA-NPN?
Key Goal
• Understand how plants, animals and
landscapes respond to environmental variation
and climate change.
What is USA-NPN?
Our Vision
Ross
Franklin, AP
•Encourage people
of all ages and
backgrounds to
observe and record
phenology.
•Make phenology
data, models, and
related information
available to scientists,
resource managers,
and the public.
Steve Ringman, The Seattle Times
What is USA-NPN?
Data are available for download
Dynamic Visualization Tool :
What is USA-NPN?
Key sponsors and collaborators…
The Great Sunflower Project
What is Nature’s Notebook?
a project of the USA-NPN
What is Nature’s Notebook?
Nature’s Notebook is USA-NPN’s plant and
animal phenology observation program.
What is Nature’s Notebook?
Nature’s Notebook engages scientists and citizen
scientists to collect phenology observations on:
• 258+ plant species
• 160+ animal species
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