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Demography Black-throated Blue Warbler • Overwinter survival and fecundity on breeding grounds (NE US) lower in El Nino years compared to La Nina (Sillet et al. 2000) Elevational range expanders • Experienced higher nest predation rates in areas expanded into than vegetation types they used more often (Martin. 2001) Phenology Phenology North American red squirrels • Respond to inc. food abundance • 6 d advance/generation • Early breeders more successful (Reale et al. 2003) American Robins • Arrive 14 d earlier in 20 yr period • Interval between date of arrival and first bare ground increased 18 d (Inouye et al. 2000) Phenology Yellow-bellied marmots • Emerging from hibernation 38 d earlier in 23 years period (Inouye et al. 2000) Tree Swallows • Laying dates on average 9 days earlier (Dunn and Winkler 1999) Meta-analysis of phenology research showed a shift of 2.3 days/decade in spring migrant arrival • (Parmesan and Yohe 2003) Community composition and interactions High levels of species turnover and differential rates/abilities for range expansion will lead to new natural communities w/ unique and unknown properties • (Peterson et al 2002) Phenology: migratory animals • What cues do migrants use to begin movements? • What happens if they are late or early? Match-mismatches: Different phenological responses to climate change can lead to disruption of intricately timed interactions between species. i.e.: pred-prey, plant-pollinator Climate Change Match Conditions trigger laying Mismatch Peak Energy demand (young in nest) Conditions trigger laying Peak Energy demand (young in nest) Peak food availability Time Peak food availability Time Figure1. Conceptual diagram of match mismatch between timing of egg laying and conditions when food demand is highest. (Adapted from Stenseth and Mysterud 2002). Primary productivity • • • • ↑ temperature and atm CO2 Fertilizing effect enhancing photosynthesis Species have varied responses Increased growth balanced with limits – in soil nutrients and water – CO2 uptake • Effects of ↑ ozone? Less ice Changes in habitat and food availability Polar bears • Tied to sea ice for hunting, breeding, denning Collared lemming • Nests between tundra and snow Caribou • More freezing rain, more insects • Human reliance on subsistence hunting Competition:Penguins Adelie penguins • Feed on krill • Rely on sea ice to find krill • Decreasing Chinstrap penguins • Feed on large krill and fish • Don’t rely on sea ice • Increasing and replacing Adelies in colonies Climate change into the future What’s going to happen? • Definitely have warming • Scenarios What can we do? • Voluntary reductions (EPA) • EPA suggests – Energy star products – Reduce reuse recycle – Use alternative transportation • • • • Examine your carbon footprint Pressure Carbon Sequestration Translocations? Role of nurseries?