Transcript 20121001_marx_eea_schweigerx

ETC/CCA
The EEA approach towards an indicator based assessment with
a focus on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Biodiversity
O. Schweiger, M. Füssel, A. Jol, A. Marx
Strasbourg, 01.10.2012
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Key relevant EU policy processes
ETC/CCA
• Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive
growth: ‘strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks’
• Climate change adaptation (Mainstreaming in EU policies,
Clearinghouse on adaptation by early 2012, EU strategy by
2013)
• Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive
• Nature protection directives and policies to halt biodiversity
loss
• Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal
Zone Management (ICZM)
• Other (e.g. sectoral, cross-cutting): maritime, agriculture;
forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure
e.g. energy, transport (regional policies); urban areas
Impacts of Europe’s changing climate
(EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008), update in 2012
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ETC/CCA
Atmosphere and climate
Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice)
Marine biodiversity and ecosystems
Water quantity
Freshwater quality and biodiversity
Terrestrial ecosystems and
biodiversity
Soil
Agriculture and forestry
Human health
Vulnerability and economic aspects
(sectors)
Objectives of the 2012 report
ETC/CCA
• Present past and projected climate change and impacts
through indicators
• Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk
• Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions
• Present summary of adaptation actions across Europe
• Highlight the need for enhanced monitoring and scenarios
at appropriate scale; communication of uncertainties and
sharing of information
Europe’s key past and projected impacts and risks
(SOER2010), to be updated/extended
ETC/CCA
Draft scope of the report, main structure
ETC/CCA
1. Introduction, EU Adaptation Policy, Indicator selection, Uncertainties
2. Changes in the climate system
• Key climate variables
• Cryosphere
3. Climate impacts on environmental systems
• Ocenas and Marine environment
• Coastal zones
• Inland waters
• Terrestrial ecosystems and Biodiversity
• Soil
4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health
• Agriculture
• Forests and Forestry
• Fisheries and aquaculture
• Human health
• Energy
• Transport
• Tourism
5. Vulnerability to climate change
6. Indicator and data needs
Terrestrial biodiversity indicators
ETC/CCA
• Conservation status
• Phenology: Plants and Animals
• Species Distribution
• plant species
• animal species (incl Arctic species index; butterflies
and birds)
• Species Ecosystem Relationships
Invasive alien species: Examples on plants and animals
Spring trends of phenology in Europe 1971-2000
ETC/CCA
Note: Each dot represents the mean for spring at a station. Dot size
adjusted for clarity. A negative phenological trend corresponds to an
earlier onset of spring.
Source: (Estrella, Sparks, und Menzel 2009)
Spatial pattern of trend in egg-laying dates of
the pied flycatcher 1980-2004 corresponds to
temperature trend
ETC/CCA
Note:
Dots: weather stations
used to calculate changes in local
egg-laying dates (derived from
temperature data); triangles: location
of pied flycatcher laying date time
series.
Source: (Both und Marvelde 2007)
Observed latitudinal shifts of four species
over 25 years in Britain
ETC/CCA
Note:
Observed latitudinal
shifts of the northern range
boundaries of species within four
exemplar taxonomic groups:
Spiders (85 species), ground
beetles (59 species), butterflies
(29 species), and grasshoppers
and allies (22 species). Positive
latitudinal shifts indicate
movement toward the north
(pole); negative values indicate
shifts toward the south (Equator).
Horizontal lines mark the Median,
boxes the 25 to 75% quartile and
whisker the range (up to 1.5
times the interqwuartile
distance). Open Circles are
outliers.
Source: Modified after (Chen u.
a. 2011)
European variations in the temporal trend of
bird and butterfly CTI.
ETC/CCA
Note:
A temporal increase in CTI directly reflects that the species assemblage of the site is increasingly composed
of individuals belonging to species dependent on higher temperature. The height of a given arrow is proportional to the
temporal trend and its direction corresponds to the sign of the slope (from south to north
for positive slopes). The arrow is opaque if the trend is significant.
Source:
Devictor u. a. 2012)
Changes in mammalian species richness until 2100
ETC/CCA
Note: Units in percentage, changes under two climate scenarios B1
(left) and A2 (right) in a 10’ resolution
Source: (Levinsky u. a. 2007)
Projected changes in the climate niche space of the
Small Tortoise shell 2050 and 2080
ETC/CCA
Note:
Future distribution of climate niche space of Aglais urticae under the A2 climate change scenario
Northern parts of Europe are expected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large
areas of central Europe would become unsuitable. The worst case loss is 55% of its
climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46% loss under full dispersal.
Source: (J. Settele et al., 2008)
Time schedule 2012 report
ETC/CCA
Period
Activity
April - Oct/Nov 2011
ETC CCA Technical paper on evaluation of climate
change state, impact and vulnerability indicators
15 June 2011
1st Advisory Group meeting
1 November 2011
first draft indicator chapters
30 Nov 2011
2nd Advisory Group meeting
Feb 2012
second draft chapters including indicators
April 2012
3rd Advisory Group meeting
May 2012
final draft chapters and full report
June-July 2012
external EIONET and other review
August-Sep 2012
inclusion of comments
October/November 2012
final editing, layouting
21 November 2012
publication and launch
Expected average percentage of stable area of 856
plant species for two different climate scenariosETC/CCA
2100
Note:
The S550e scenario corresponds to a stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and a global
mean temperature increase of 2°C, the baseline scenario corresponds to a global mean temperature
increase of more than 3°C.
Source: (Alkemade, Bakkenes, und Eickhout 2011)
Actual and potential future alien plant invasion hotspots
(2081-90) under two extreme climate scenarios ETC/CCA
Note: Potential future alien plant invasion hotspots in Germany and Austria under climate change,
based on total 30 invasive alien vascular plant species. ColorsColours mark number of invasive alien
species being at least suitable in an area.
Source: (Kleinbauer u. a. 2010)
Spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White
butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants
ETC/CCA
Note:
future simulation under BAMBU (Business-As-Might-Be-Usual,
Climate A2) scenario.
Source: (Oliver Schweiger et al. 2012)
ETC/CCA