Transcript ppt

Hazard Risk Management in
Europe and Central Asia
Workshop Agenda
June 28-30, 2004
Istanbul, Turkey
Russian Academy of Sciences
Institute of Environmental Geosciences
Dr. Alexei L. Ragozin
Deputy Director on Science
Natural Disasters Risk
Assessment and Management
in Russia
Original presentation is modified for Internet use.
NATURAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS GENERAL FLOW CHART
Hazard
identification
Risk
management
Hazard forecasting
Risk
assessment
Vulnerability
assessment
IDENTIFICATION OF NATURAL
HAZARDS
• What kinds of natural hazards – in terms of their genesis,
development mechanism and intensity – have affected
the area under assessment; where and when?
• Which natural or technogenic conditions and trigger
factors have brought about or intensified those hazards?
• What is annual probability (frequency) and intensity of
different genetic types and forms of natural hazards in
certain parts of the area under assessment (volume,
velocity, affected area, duration and other measures of
destructive capacity of respective hazards)?
Leakages from
water conduits and
technogenic
submergence of
land
Loss of
strength,
liquescency,
leakage and
budging of
dispersed
rock
formations
Rupture,
settling,
uplifting,
subsidence,
and
horizontal
movement of
land surface
Generation of mud
streams resulting
from slide dam and
glacial dam erosion
Discharge of
tensions in earth
crust in the form of
seismic shocks
Generation of
land slides,
rock slides,
avalanches,
glacier
surges; river
closing
Generation
of tsunami
waves
Shoreline
erosion
SYNERGETIC MODEL DESCRIBING THE EMERGENCE OF PRIMARY AND SECONDARY
HAZARDS RELATED TO EARTHQUAKES AND TECHNOGENIC FLOODING.
Linkages 1, 2 and the like indicate, accordingly, the sequence of emergence and augmentation of
negative effects.
FORECASTING NATURAL HAZARDS
• Given natural and technogenic conditions, which
types of natural hazards – in terms of their genesis
and development mechanism – can affect the area
under assessment, and where?
• Which natural hazards can be generated or triggered
in the process of anticipated new construction and
operation of buildings, structures and their
systems?
• What is the future annual frequency and intensity of
those hazards under the current and altered natural
and technogenic conditions?
FRAGMENT OF TATARSTAN’S KARST HAZARD MAP
SCALE: 1:200 000
Categories of karst hazard identified in the area (areal intensity of karsk hole formation, m 2/km2 · yr): 1–
moderate hazard: 10-1; 2 – low hazard: 1-0,1; insignificant hazard: 3 – 0,1-0,01; 4 – 0,01-0,001; 5 –
0,001-0,0001. Borderlines: 6 – karst sites, differentiated by prevalence of karst sinks; 7 – karst sub-sites,
differentiated by areal intensity of karst hole formation; 8 – average long-term areal intensity of karst
hole formation within sub-sites, m2/kv2 · yr; 9 – border of the Republic of Tatarstan.
NATURAL HAZARD VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF
TERRITORIES, CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND
POPULATION
• What is the current and/or future use of the particular
territory?
• Which kinds of objects – in terms of purpose and structural
units - are located and/or will be located within the particular
territory?
• What is the number, distribution and mobility of population
within the particular territory and in objects?
• How vulnerable are specific segments of the territory,
objects, systems and population to anticipated natural
hazards of particular type and intensity?
• What is the expected vulnerability of future protective
engineering structures and protected territories, future
construction projects and their inhabitants, to natural
hazards?
ASSESSMENT OF VULNERABILITY OF ELEMENTS-AT-RISK
TO NATURAL HAZARDS
Types of Vulnerability:
•
•
•
•
Physical - Vf(H) = ni/n
Economic - Ve(H) = Di/D = Vf(H)·Ki
Social - Vs(H) = pi/p
Environmental - Vec(H) = xi/x
Vec(H) = Si/S
Vec(H) = Di/D=Vec(H) · Ki
COMPARATIVE AVERAGE VALUES OF ECONOMIC
VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS TO VARIOUS NATURAL AND
TECHNOGENIC PROCESSES
Type of Building
Construction Type and Material
Low rise buildings of rubble, stone,
adobe, puddle wall
Standard buildings of flame brick, M-10
mortar
Standard buildings with RC or steel frame,
without seismic protection features
Brick and sawn stone buildings with design
seismic resistance up to 7 points
Frame and large panel buildings with design
seismic resistance up to 8 points
Brick and sawn stone buildings with design
seismic resistance up to 8 points
Frame and large panel buildings with design
seismic resistance up to 8 points
Land
Foundation type (seismic
submergence*
resistance index
according to MMSK-86)
Strip
Slab
Pile, pier
Slab
Pile, pier
Strip
Slab
Pile, pier
Strip
Slab
Pile, pier
Strip
Slab
Pile, pier
Strip
Slab
Pile, pier
Strip
Slab
Pile, pier
Hazardous Processes
Seiche-wind
Earthquakes (scale points)
driven tide**
CORRELATION BETWEEN ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY OF RAPIDLY
DEGRADING BUILDINGS/STRUCTURES TO GEOLOGIC AND OTHER
NATURAL/TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS, AND VULNERABILITY OF THEIR
INHABITANTS
Vulnerability of population in buildings and structures of different height (1
Vulnerability of
buildings and
structures
0,005
1-4 storey buildings
5-10 storey buildings
Over 10 storey buildings
0,000006 - 0,0001
0,000006 - 0,0001
0,000006 - 0,0001
0,05
0,00006 - 0,001
0,00006 - 0,001
0,00006 - 0,001
0,1
0,0003 - 0,07
0,0003 - 0,08
0,00030 - 0,09
0,2
0,0006 - 0,15
0,0006 - 0,16
0,0007 - 0,17
0,3
0,003 - 0,25
0,003 - 0,27
0,004 - 0,28
0,4
0,0052 - 0,35
0,0052 - 0,38
0,0061 - 0,39
0,5
0,015 - 0,45
0,015 - 0,48
0,018 - 0,49
0,6
0,031 - 0,55
0,031 - 0,58
0,038 - 0,59
0,7
0,047 - 0,65
0,05 - 0,68
0,059 - 0,69
0,8
0,064 - 0,75
0,07 - 78
0,08 - 0,79
0,9
0,42 - 0,85
0,5 - 88
0,54 - 0,89
1,0
0,7 - 0,91
0,8 - 0,96
0,9 - 0,99
Note. 1. Average and average maximum figures.
NATURAL HAZARDS ASSESSMENT
· What are the possible scenarios and
consequences of natural hazards?
· What is the probability of those scenarios being
triggered?
· What will be the losses from individual episodes
and from all of the natural hazards?
· What will be the differential and integrated loss
risks from individual episodes and from all of the
natural hazards?
· How will the scenarios, probabilities, losses and
differential and integrated risks modify after
preventive measures are taken?
KEY ELEMENTS OF GEOLOGICAL RISK
Hazard
Р(Н)
Risk
P(H)P(FH)
Geological hazard (H) – a process, quality or condition of certain lithospheric masses
that pose can endanger human life, economic facilities or the environment.
Vulnerability P(F|H) – extent to which the object can lose capacity to perform its
natural or assigned functions as a result of adverse external and/or internal effects.
Risk: geological R(H) – a measure of probability of geological hazard estimated for a
particular object (entity) in terms of possible losses during a certain period.
Object
(vulnerability)
P(FH)
1. Rf (H) = P(H)·P(F|H) – Risk – probability of an adverse event (failure)
2. Rd(H) = P(F|H)·D – Risk – possible loss
3. Ro (H) = P(H)·P(S|H)·P(T|H)·P(O|H)·D – Combined (integrated) risk
P(H) – frequency of hazard (H), numerically equal to its statistical probability
P(F|H) – probability of failure (damage, destruction, death, etc.) of object when affected by hazard (H) (general
vulnerability of object)
D – conditional total loss from hazard (H)
P(S|H) – probability of being affected by hazard in space (H) (spatial vulnerability)
P(T|H) – probability of being affected by hazard (H) in time (temporal vulnerability)
P(O|H) – probability of being destroyed (damaged, etc.) by hazard (H) (physical vulnerability)
NATURAL HAZARD RISK ASSESSMENT
Types of risk, by type of effect:
• one-time (subdivided into: single and multiple) –
- Re(H) = P(H) · Ve(H) · Dе ;
• permanent – R(H) = Vn · P(Vn ) · dе
Types of risk, by nature of losses:
• natural physical (annual number of objects affected, with differential
outcomes: buildings/year, bridges/year, km/year, etc.);
• natural economic (rubles/year);
• specific natural economic (rubles/hectare·year, ruble/km2·year);
• natural social (pers./year);
• natural individual (pers./pers.·year)
FRAGMENT OF KARST-RELATED ECONOMIC RISK MAP OF REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN.
SCALE: 1:200 000 (SCHEMATIZED (А) AND COMPLETE (Б) VERSIONS).
Karst-related economic risk (currency units/yr·km2):1 – (1 - 0,1); 2 – (0,1 - 0,01); 3 – (0,01 0,001); 4 – (0,001 - 0,0001); 5 – (0,0001 - 0,00001). Borderlines: 6 – Natural-Technogenic
Spheres (NTS) of 2nd order, as numbered, differentiated by areal intensity of karst hole formation;
7 – NTS groups of 2nd order differentiated by categories of specific karst-related economic risk; 8
– automobile roads.
FRAGMENT OF KARST-RELATED INDIVIDUAL RISK MAP OF REPUBLIC OF TATARSTAN.
SCALE: 1:200 000 (SCHEMATIZED (А) AND COMPLETE (Б) VERSIONS).
Individual risk (pers./pers.·year): medium: 1 – (10 -7 - 10 -6); small: 2 – (1·10 -8 - 1·10 -9);
3 – (1·10 -9 - 1·10 -12); 4 – (<1·10 -12). Borderlines: 5 – NTS of 2nd order, as numbered,
differentiated by areal intensity of karst hole formation; 6 – NTS groups of 2nd order differentiated
by categories of karts-related individual social risk.
(A)
(B)
(C)
FRAGMENTS OF FORECAST MAPS: INUNDATION, ABRASION, SEICHE AND SEISMIC CHANGE (1),
TYPIFICATION OF ECONOMIC ENTITIES (2) AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS RESULTING FROM
HAZARDOUS SYNERGETIC PROCESSES ASSOCIATED WITH RAISING CASPIAN SEA LEVEL (3), CITY OF
MAKHACHKALA, UP TO 2005.
Territories of possible exposure to various sets of synergetic processes: 1  inundation, abrasion, submergence
(groundwater depth up to 2 m), seismic forces; 2  seiche and submergence (up to 2 m), seismic forces; 3 
submergence ((groundwater depth 2 to 4 m), seismic forces; 4  seismic forces. Borderlines: 5  main zoning
taxons on maps A, B and C; sub-taxons with differentiated: 6  seismic activity; 7  inundation probability (%). 8 
intensity of seismic forces (scale points). Land use categories: 9  utility/storage; 10  industrial; 11  transport; 12
 residential; 13  administrative/public. 14  density of national wealth (thous. rubles/ha). Specific economic risk
(thous. rubles/ha ·year): 15  over 400; 16  400200; 17  200100; 18  10030; 19  303; 20  30,3; 21 
0,30,01; 22  less than 0,01.
Integrated Natural Hazard
Economic Risk Map of Russia
Integrated Natural Hazard Economic
Risk (thous. Rub./km3/yr)
Small
Substantial
Moderate
Large
Medium
Enormous
Comparative Analysis of Social and Economic Losses
from Natural Hazards in Russia
Processes
Probable One-time Loss
Social
Economic
(thou. People)
($bn.)
Wounded
Killed
Average long-term risk
Social (thou.
pers./year)
Individual (pers./pers.
year)
Susceptibility
Economic
($bn.)/year
territories,
by area
settlements,
by number
population
Processes usually resulting in major loss of human life
Earthquake
Tsunami
Flood
Landslide/ rock slide
Processes that usually claim a few human lives
Avalanche
Wildfire
Mudflow
Karst
Suffosion
Marginal erosion of
seas and reservoirs
Severe frost,
snowstorm
Hurricane, tornado
Processes usually resulting in major loss of human life
Water logging
Sheet and gully
erosion
Riverbed erosion
Geocryological:
rebound,
thermokarst,
thermoerosion
solifluction
Loess Subsidence
Drought
Total (averages)
*Estimated for specific population groups and economic entities (settlements, land property, etc.) located within areas subject to the
respective process. Integrated totals of social, individual and economic loss risks from natural hazards are estimated for the whole of
Russia.
** Figures in parentheses correspond to numbers of cities susceptible to the process.
Natural Hazard Risk Management
• Which measures are anticipated to reduce and prevent
risk?
• What levels of risk should be considered as acceptable?
• What methods are/will be used to monitor natural
hazards, facilities status, losses and risks?
• How do the inhabitants and governments perceive
identified hazards, risks, and prevention/control
measures?
• Which additional measures are needed to reduce and
control the remaining risks?
Principal Levels of Natural Hazard Risk Assessment
and Management
Typical Elements-at-Risk
Levels of Assessment and
Management
Local,
by object
Local
Individual buildings, structures, and
their parts.
Feasibility studies for construction investment,
Construction designs and facilities protection
schemes.
Settlements, urban districts and
neighborhoods, industrial complexes.
General and detailed housing layouts, city
and neighborhood development plans.
Feasibility studies for investment in industrial
complexes. Protection plans and projects for
such facilities.
Sub-regional
(city, district)
Cities, urban conglomerates,
administrative areas within RF
constituent regions, local reservoirs
and lakes, product pipelines, roads
and other line structures.
Master plans and maps of cities and
administrative areas, their protection
schemes. Feasibility studies for major
construction projects, construction designs
and protection schemes.
Regional
(sub-federal)
RF constituent regions and their
parts, major reservoirs, lakes and
seas, main product pipelines, roads
and other line structures.
Programs to ensure safety and development
of production capacities and industries. Allinclusive master plans for land management
and protection from natural and technological
hazards. Feasibility studies for major
construction projects, construction designs.
Russia as a whole, administrative
districts and other major territorial
subdivisions.
Programs to ensure safety and development
of production capacities and industries.
General settlement and production layouts,
natural/technological hazards protection
plans.
Earth as a whole, individual
continents and their major parts,
areas spanning several countries.
Declarations, concepts, programs,
agreements on cooperation and measures to
reduce losses from natural and technological
hazards.
Local, by
area
(municipal)
Regional
Global
Key Documentation
Sub-global
(Federal
District,
federal,
national)
Global
Level of detail (scale) of
assessment and relevant
maps
1:50 – 1:500
1:1000 – 1:10000
1:10000 - 1:50000
1:100000 - 1:1000000
1:1000000 - 1:10000000
1:10000000 and smaller