Transcript IMT-2000 - Security Audit Systems

Lighting the Way in the New Economy
3G Wireless
“Lessons learned
from Europe/Japan”
Sam Ramadan
Director Of Strategic marketing
Lucent Network Vision
Multi-Media
Resource OneLink
Server Manager
Network Services
Service &
Business
Management
Session
Managers
Softswitch
POTS
ISDN
xDSL
OC3
Packet
Gateway
Fixed Business Remote
Access
Wireless
Concentrator
(AC120)
NIU
Voice
ATM
LANs
Firewall
2
Business
MUX
• Data VPN
Application
Processor
Ascend ATM Switches
& Nexabit Terabit IP Routers
Residential Access
Packet
Gateway
NIU
POTS
Fixed Residential
ISDN
Wireless
xDSL
GX550
GX550
Internet
• RADIUS Servers
Mobility Feature • Messaging Servers Network
Databases
Server Servers • Name Servers
Business Access
POTS
ISDN
• Billing Servers
PSTN
Signaling
Gateway
Residential
Gateway
Gateway
RAS
PSTN
Packet
Gateway
POTS,
ISDN,
xDSL,
Cable Modem
Mobility/Portability
Access
Flexent
Wireless
Router
3G Standards - IMT-2000
Key IMT2000 Requirements:
 High Speed Packet Data
144k - Vehicular
 384 - Pedestrian
 2Mb - Indoor
 Global Roaming
UIM - Based on GSM SIM
IMT-2000
CDMA
Direct Spread
UMTS/DoCoMo
IMT-2000
CDMA
Multi-Carrier
cdma2000
1X and 3X
IMT-2000
CDMA
TDD
UTRA TDD
& TD-SCDMA)
IMT-2000
TDMA
Single Carrier
UWC-136/
EDGE
 Multiple standards meet ITU requirements for IMT2000
 Technology choice driven by market requirements and operator
partnerships
3
IMT-2000
FDMA/
TDMA
DECT
Network Options for GSM &
cdmaOne Data Evolution
Source:
Ovum Research
Published: Mobile Communications International
GSM Network Options
1998
1999
2001
2003
HSCD
UMTS
EDGE
GSM
GPRS
No UMTS
cdmaOne Network Options
1998
1999
2000
2001
3X
cdmaOne
IS-95A
1X
IS-95B
No 3X
5
3G Data Options
Wireless
Technology
Spectral
Bandwidth
Expected
Throughput
Peak Data
Rate
Expected Market
Introduction
3G-1X
1.25 MHz for
Voice/Data
100-180 Kbps
300 Kbps
(mobile)
1H2001
HDR
1.25 MHz for
Data
400-600 Kbps
2.4 Mbps
(fixed/mobile)
1H2002
384 Kbps
(mobile)
1H2002
384 Kbps
(mobile)
1H2002
EDGE
Compact
1 MHz for Data 190-275 Kbps
EDGE Classic
2.7 MHz for
Data
Wideband
CDMA-DS
5 MHz for
Voice/Data
Wideband
CDMA-3X
330-370 Kbps
480-720 Kbps
5 MHz for Data 480-720 Kbps
2 Mbps (fixed)
1H2001 (Japan)
384 Kbps
1H2002 (Eur/NA)
(mobile)
2 Mbps (fixed)
2H2002
384 Kbps
(mobile)
Preliminary View of Spectral Efficiency, Application
Throughput, and Time to Market
6
3G Licences are Costly...
The Analysts forecast an average cost of €70/pop/licence = €120 Bn in
Europe…and this is a conservative view!!
Spectrum Costs in the UK
Price per pop
200
150
8
Euros
Euros (bn)
12
100
4
50
0
TIW
Vodafone
BT3G
One-2-One
Orange
Bid Price (Euro)
Country
7
Minimum
Euros (Bn)
Germany
10
Italy
5
Netherlands
0.5
Switzerland
0.5
Ireland
0.5
Austria
0.5
Belgium
1.5
Source: UMTS Forum
Likely
Euros (Bn)
12
6
1-1.7
1
0.75
1
2
0
TIW
Vodafone
BT3G
One-2-One
Price/pop (Euro)
Orange
1/2 the cost of UMTS
will go to the Governments!!!
New Networks will be costly...
Estimated Site Count Estimate for European Countries
No. of Sites
12,000
Average No. of Sites
8,000
Required in Europe
Blue: 3950 Sites
4,000
Red: 5250 Sites
0
Germany
UK
Portugal
Switzerland
64 UL 384 DL
Source: RF Planning
Spain
Holland
Red: € 2.58 Bn
Euro Bn
Blue: €2.15 Bn
France
144 UL 384 DL
Estimated Capex
6.0
Average Cost of Networks
Italy
4.0
2.0
0.0
Germany
UK
Portugal
Switzerland
64 UL 384 DL
Source: Commercial Management & Marketing
8
Spain
Holland
144 UL 384 DL
Italy
France
Delaying rollout will cost the
Operator dearly...
Euro (m)
We expect a 2 week launch delay to cost Operators €5.7m in lost
subscriber revenue…now look at 3 months
70
Assumptions:
60
• ((9,615*2)*(€48*12))
50
• ARPU €48pm (2002), €49.6
(2010)
40
• 9,615 subs per week added to
network (Assuming 500,000 subs
in year 1)
30
20
• Base Case MS = 13% (2002)
19% (2010)
10
0
1 Wk
2 Wk
1 Mn
3 Mn
Present Value of lost revenue of a 3 month delay is €176m
If the operator never regained the subs lost in the first
3 months this equates to a loss in NPV of €176m over
10 years...
9
Summary (PV)
Base Case
1 Wk Delay
2 Wk Delay
1 Mn Delay
3 Mn Delay
€ (000)
1,078,212
1,063,487
1,048,761
1,019,311
901,508
The Game has Changed For
Operators!
 The New Value Chain requires:
–
–
–
–
New Products,
New Business Models
And New Skill Sets
Immediacy
 Licences will cost at least €70/ per Pop, x
times that of GSM
 Networks will cost €2.4 B on Average
across Europe
All This in the Face of an Unproven
New Revenue Model...
10
What is the Opportunity for
Operators?...
11
Average Revenue Per User in
Western Europe
The investment banks now believe ARPU will grow to €60 per mth/sub by
2010(average across Europe)… from approximately €40 today
Euros per mth/sub
80
European ARPU Forecasts
Revenues from Data and Mobile
Commerce
60
Portugal
France
40
Italy
20
Germany
Black Line = Analyst’s View in 1999
are estimated to represent 50%
of ARPU by 2010,
from 2% today
Holland
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Merrill Lunch
Note: includes inbound and outbound
ARPU Composition
100
Key Points to Note:
Euros
80
• Voice revenue is expected to flatten or decline
60
• Data and Mobile Commerce will uplift ARPU
20
40
0
2000
2005
2010
Source: DLJ, IDC, Merrill Lynch Research, Lucent Marketing
12
Voice
Data
M-Commerce
I-Mode Today
New Revenue Streams…
…………New Business Models
13
Mobile Commerce
End Users
Customised
Portal
Filters
Channels
News
Sports
Revenues from Selling Portal Space
Time
Location
Tickets
Customer
Profile
Revenues From M-Commerce
An example by WH Smith in UK:
Transaction Fees From
Retailers for Access to:
• WHS assume 2bn GBP of on-line book
sales p.a.
• Information
• Entertainment
• WHS estimates 20% of on-line sales
will be over mobile
• Ordering/Reservations
•Thus, 400m over mobile WHS
• Financial Services
• 5% transaction fee = 20m pa for mobile
portals/carriers
New Revenues will come from M-Commerce and M-Advertising
14
Virtual Network Operators...
We expect VNO’s to represent a significant revenue source for UMTS Operators...
Theoretical Capacity of W-CDMA
No. of Subs (m)
80
Assumptions:
Black line= realistic # of subs for a German Operator assuming 20% market share
Consumer Usage
60
234 mins/mth/sub
190 mbits/mth/sub
40
Business Usage
20
300 mins/mth/sub
244 Mbits/sub mth
1,000
2,500
5,000
7,500
No. of Sites
1 Carrier
2 Carrier
10,000
2% Grade of Service
3 Carrier
For 1 carrier scenario, Subs/site
= 2400
MVNOs would not have a license to use radio spectrum, but would have
access to the radio networks of one or more of the current mobile operators
and would be able to offer services to customers using that spectrum.
15
In Short…..The Bad News
 Licence costs will impact the economic
viability of a UMTS network
 Network costs in Western Europe will range
from approx. 700m €(Switzerland) to 5- 6B
(Germany)
 Average $2.6 Billion (64 UL and 384 DL)
and $3.2(144 UL and 384 DL)
 Networks and Licence to be financed on the
back of a new revenue streams which are
uncertain
16
And The Good News is….
 Data Take Up is now happening and expected to
increase with GPRS
 Penetration may increase to levels near 100%
(beyond 100% for Devices)
 There are new types of Revenue Streams e.g. MCommerce and VNO
 Analysts believe ARPU will uplift e.g. ARPU may
go to 60 € by 2010
17
 Total Revenue open to European Operators could
reach 1.4 Trillion by 2010
Success Story From Japan
Do Co Mo i-mode
 Service offered:
– Transaction (Security trading ,
Banking, etc.)
– Information (News, quotes,
horse racing info., etc.)
– Data base (Yellow pages,
Restaurant Guide…)
– Entertainment (Network
games, Horoscopes…)
 591 Application Alliance
Partners / 1000 official sites
 18,700 voluntary i-mode web
sites including 20 search
engines (8/7)
18
I-mode
 Prices: Basic charge—$2.90
subscription fee, $0.003 per packet;
Premium services packets priced
higher
 Incremental ARPU: $11.53 (data);
$12 (voice vs. non-i-mode DoCoMo
customer
 10.8 million subscribers - double
since March (8/20) - Oct 99 : 1.9
million (24 million DoCoMo users)
 Entertainment (41%), E-mail(21%),
and mobile banking (16%) most
popular
19
Imagine…..3G Services
Lucent
Technologies
?
20