Transcript 3_3_mobile

3.3. Evolution of mobile communications
Beginningof
of 2G
Beginning
Source: ITU
Source: ITU
Source: ITU
Source: ITU
Ovum
Service evolution from GSM to UMTS
2002
2004+
2000
2000
GSM
GSM Today

 Basic
Basic telephony
Telephony
 Circuit
kbps,
Circuitdata
Data28,8
28.8
kbps
(HSCSD)
(HSCSD)
 Standardised
Standardisedbearer
bearer&&
supplem.
services
suppl. services
GSM
GSM Enhancements
enhancements
 Packet data (GPRS
Packet Data
<= 180 kbps)
(GPRS <= 180 kbps,
+EDGE <= 500 kbps)
 Circuit data (+ EDGE
Circuit Data
<=500
kbps)
(+EDGE
< 300 kbps*)
 CAMEL
CAMELhome
homeservices
services
support
support
 SIM
SIMtoolkit,
Toolkit,Mobile
Mobile
execution
Executionenvironment
Environment
GSM
HSCSD: High Speed
Circuit Switched Data
EDGE: Enhanced
Data Rates for GSM
Evolution
R
UMTS
UMTS
Basic
telephony
Basic
Telephony
Mob.
multimedia
& and
Mobile
Multimedia
asymmetric
services
Asymmetric
Services
Circuit/packet
dataData
Circuit / Packet
Rural Rural <=384
<= kbps
384 kbps
(Sub-)Urban <= 512 kbps
(Sub-)Urban <= 512 kbps
Low Range <= 2 Mbps
Low range
<= 2 Mbps
Standardised
Capabilities
  Virtual Home
Standardized capabilities
 Environment
Virtual Home Environment
in addition
 New Capacity (Spectrum)
3-4 years –
transition
period
CAMEL: Customised
Applications for Mobile
Enhanced Logic
SIM - Subscriber Identity
Module
UMTS +
GSM
R
GPRS: General Packet
Radio System
UMTS Development
• 1995 - Inception of concept
• January 1998 - standardization by ETSI
• First quarter of 2003 - commercialized launch FOMA (Freedom of Mobile
Multimedia Access) network (i-mode) in Japan by NTT DoCoMo
and
• Phase 1 trial launches in nine other countries
• June 2004 - UMTS (WCDMA) has grown to be used by more than 5 million
customers worldwide and is growing faster than GSM at the same point in its
development timeline history (3G Americas Report, June 2004)
• December 2004 - ten million customers worldwide (3G Americas Report, June
2004)
• End of 2006 – 63 million customers in Europe (Ovum)
• To 2009 – 270 million customers in Europe (Analysis Research)
Global UMTS Network Status
From EMC World Cellular Database & UMTS Forum (June, 2004)
• No. of 3G Networks in Service - 57 (in 21 countries)
• 93 operators in 37 other countries now in pre-commercial
status of planning, trialing, or awarded UMTS licenses for
their 3G deployments.
UMTS Deployment
NORWAY
NETWORK LICENSES AWARDED (License has been awarded, but licensee currently
shows no inclination to deploy network)
• Hi3G Access Norway - Q4 2005
LICENSES REVOKED OR SOLD (Licensee/operator involuntarily/voluntarily hands back
license)
• Broadband Mobile - Nov 2002 (Declaration of bankruptcy)
• Tele2 Norway
LICENSES TENDERED (Government has set a time schedule with proposed tender
dates and number of licenses)
• -tba- License Tender - Dec 2004
NETWORKS PLANNED OR IN DEPLOYMENT (Licensee is in planning stages of
deploying network or is actually building the network)
• Norway Netcom - Q4 2004
• Norway Telenor Mobil - Q3 2004
The Growing Demands for Wireless Data
Source: Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein (DrKW) Equity Research
2010
•video traffic – 7.7 Mbit/s
•data traffic – 6.8 Mbit/s
•voice traffic – five-fold increase
•In 1991 typical user of wireline data used only 1 Mb/month
•In 1999 - around 200 Mb/month
Growth in UMTS Terminal Availability
Source: “The Evolution of UMTS – 3GPP Release 5 and Beyond”
(3G Americas Report, June 2004)
Innovative mobile devices ...
Source: Siemens
i-mode – an example of 3G network
IMT 2000 (3G)
Java
Music
i-mode launch
Open
standards
Video
Game
Video
Conference
Video
Telephone
e-mail
Feb.
1999
Homepage
Fall,
1999
Pictures
Mobile TV
Winter,
1999
Source: NTT DoCoMo, Siemens
Fall,
2000
Spring,
2001
Increasing bandwidth
Colored
LCD
i-mode – subscriber and information site evolution
i-mode subscriber growth & percentage of DoCoMo
subscribers (‘000 / %)
10000
26,8%
23,4%
8000
21,7%
19,1%
7114
5603
13,3%
25%
20%
6510
15,6%
6000
8289
30%
15%
4463
4000
10%
3743
2000
5%
0
0%
Jan. 00Feb. 00Mar 00 Apr 00Mai 00 Jun 00
 Number of subscribers raised from 0 to
5.6 million within one year
 Number of sites increased to 7.000 sites
within one year
i i-mode information sites (absolute)
20.000
 # of Voluntary
18.273
Sites
15.000
15.609
 # of Official
Success in mobile data is driven by open access
12.940
Sites
10.000
10.000
8.224
6.357
5.052
5.000
312
341
421
470
501
519
578
Source: Goldman Sachs, ING Barings, Communications International; Siemens
0
Jan 00Feb 00Mar 00Apr 00Mai 00Jun 00Jul 00
UMTS Standardization (3GPP)
• 3GPP, the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (established in
December 1998) is the international standards body that
develops, publishes and maintains standards for third
generation wireless.
• The current Organizational Partners are ETSI (Europe), ARIB
(Japan), ETRI (Korea), CWTS (China) and others. As well as
the standards bodies, 3GPP is attended by all of the major
manufacturers and operators (“Market Representation
Partners”, all 200 members), including NTT DoCoMo, Alcatel,
Cingular Wireless, Ericsson, Lucent, Motorola, Nokia, Nortel,
Qualcomm, Siemens, T-Mobile and Vodafone - the work will
include of the 3GPP.
UMTS Standardization (3GPP) – Cntd.
• The original scope of 3GPP was to produce
globally applicable Technical Specifications and
Technical Reports for a 3rd Generation Mobile
System based on evolved GSM core networks
and the radio access technologies that they
support (i.e., Universal Terrestrial Radio Access
(UTRA) both Frequency Division Duplex (FDD)
and Time Division Duplex (TDD) modes).
Evolution of UMTS Technical Specifications to Release 5
(Rel’5) of the 3GPP
Release 1999 (R’99) in April 1999 - the initial standards for UMTS were completed by
3GPP. These standards are the basis for a majority of the current commercially
deployed UMTS systems
Release 4 (Rel’4) in April 2001 was standardized in 3GPP, which provided some
improvements of the UMTS transport, radio interface and architecture.
Rel’5 of UMTS was completed in March 2002 - next significant evolution phase of
UMTS. UMTS Rel’5 will provide higher speed wireless data services with vastly
improved spectral efficiencies through the High Speed Downlink Packet Access
(HSDPA) feature.
In addition to HSDPA, UMTS Rel’5 introduces the IP Multimedia System (IMS)
architecture for integrated multimedia applications UMTS Rel’5 also introduces the IP
UTRAN concept to realize network efficiencies and reduce network costs.
June 2004 - Cingular Wireless (USA) has announced a UMTS trial in Atlanta which
includes a testing of HSDPA
2005 - NTT DoCoMo is already planning to launch HSDPA in FOMA (Freedom of Mobile
Multimedia Access) network
Release 5 (Rel’5) of the 3GPP
High Speed Downlink Packet Access (HSDPA) offers
significantly higher data capacity and data user speeds on the
downlink (theoretically up to 14 Mbps peak) compared to R’99
UMTS through the use of very dynamic adaptive modulation,
coding and scheduling with Hybrid Automatic Retransmission
Request (H-ARQ) processing.
Through HSDPA, operators will benefit from a technology that will
provide improved end-user experience for web access, file
download and streaming services. Wireless Broadband access to
the Internet, intranet and corporate LAN will benefit greatly from
HSDPA.
Release 5 (Rel’5) of the 3GPP (Cntd.)
In addition to HSDPA, UMTS Rel’5 introduces the IP Multimedia System (IMS)
architecture that promises to greatly enhance the end-user experience for
Integrated multimedia applications and offer the mobile operator an efficient
means for offering such services. The IMS enables new and more advanced
multimedia applications for operators (including VoIP), the ability for these
services to interact and the ability to fully integrate real-time, near real-time as
well as non-real time services.
UMTS Rel’5 also introduces the IP UTRAN concept to realize network
efficiencies and reduce network costs. IP UTRAN uses IP as a transport
protocol to realize network efficiencies that reduce the cost of delivering traffic
and can provide wireless traffic routing flexibility.
Technology Challenge for Mobility
Deployment
2000-2006
Future
Deployment
Mobility
Vehicular
2.5G
2G
UMTS
FDD
Beyond 3G
Large Area coverage
up to 384
kbit/s
GSM
GPRS
EDGE
Pedestrian
UMTS
TDD
Wireless LAN
Cordless
DECT
BRANs
IEEE 802.11a/b/g
Wi-Fi
Fixed
Source: Siemens
BWA
IEEE 802.16/a/e
WiMax
Indoor
up to 2 Mbit/s
Bluetooth
Portable
MMAC
FWA (Fixed Wireless Access)
0.1
1
10
100
Mbit/s
Various wireless technologies with their bit rates and suitability
for users moving at different speeds
Evolution of mobile networks from 2G to B3G
Mobile messaging market
Increasing importance of multimedia applications
• SMSC/MMSC supplier revenues [€m], worldwide
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SMSC 253 460 679 984 1246 1196 943 698 457
10 69 184 460 805 1100
MMSC
SMSC:
Short Messaging
Service Center
MMSC:
Multimedia Messaging
Service Center
Source: UBS Warburg, 2002
Mobile access will dominate
1800 Subscriptions worldwide (millions)
1600
Mobile
Mobile
subscriptions
Fixed
1400
1200
Mobile Internet
Fixed Internet
1000
Mobile internet
subscriptions
800
600
400
200
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Siemens
Mobile Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) potential
Western European ARPU
(Euro/ Month)
15% other services
ARPU (Euro/month)
40
35
Mobile Data
23%
30
25
20
5% Personal Organizer
5% Mini Newspaper
6% Mobile Banking
9% Video Telephony/Conf.
9% Multimedia Messaging
77%
Individual
11% Booking & Reservation Applications
15
12% Map-based Traffic Info
10
14% Map-based Local Info
5
14% Internet Browsing
0
YE01
YE02
YE03
YE04
YE05
Year
Voice
SMS
MMC
Source: Siemens
Data (excl. SMS)
Enterprise Applications
23%
Enterprise
Applications
Applications are critical
Internet
access
End-user Payment
location services
M-ComContent- Applica- merce & Content
Indep.interactive creation
tions
Services
services
Content
mgmt &
publ.
Context
establishment
(Portal)
Operators’ ARPU
Network
Mobile
network
access
Voice only
t
Source: Siemens, Durlacher Research
European Average Revenue Per User for mobile voice
and mobile data
€ / month
70
60
50
Mobile Data
40
30
20
Mobile Voice
10
0
2000 2001




2002 2003
2004 2005
2006
2007 2008
2009
2010
Advertising ARPU
M-Commerce ARPU
Mobile data ARPU
Voice ARPU
Source: Credit Suisse First Boston, Siemens