Transcript Estimating and Communicating Uncertainty in Weather and

Observing Weather and Climate
FROM THE GROUND UP
A Nationwide Network of Networks
R. E. Carbone
10 August 2009
AMS Summer Community Meeting
Weather and Climate Enterprise
Commission
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Committee on Developing
Mesoscale Meteorological
Observational Capabilities
to Meet Multiple National
Needs.
Sponsors: NOAA, NASA, EPA, DOT, DHS, OFCM
RICHARD E. (RIT) CARBONE (Chair)
NCAR, Boulder, CO
JAMES BLOCK
DTN/Meteorlogix, Minneapolis, MN
S. EDWARD BOSELLY
Weather Solutions Group, Olympia, WA
GREGORY R. CARMICHAEL
University of Iowa, Iowa City
FREDERICK H. CARR
University of Oklahoma, Norman
V. (CHANDRA) CHANDRASEKAR
Colorado State University, Fort Collins
EVE GRUNTFEST
NCAR, Boulder, CO
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RAYMOND M. HOFF
University of Maryland Baltimore Co.
WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI
University of Iowa, Iowa City
MARGARET A. LEMONE
NCAR, Boulder, CO
JAMES F.W. PURDOM
Colorado State University, Fort
Collins
THOMAS W. SCHLATTER
University of Colorado, Boulder
EUGENE S. TAKLE
Iowa State University, Ames
JAY TITLOW
Weatherflow, Inc., Poquoson, VA
Liaison:
Walter F. Dabberdt
Board of Atmospheric Sciences
and Climate
NRC Staff:
CURTIS MARSHALL
Senior Program Officer
ROB GREENWAY,
Senior Program Assistant
Study Tasks, Goals, Foci

Develop an “overarching vision” for an integrated,
flexible, adaptive, and multi-purpose network
We did not engage in network design.
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Focus on requirements for the United States and
adjacent coastal zones
Emphasize the planetary boundary layer
(~2 meters below the surface to 2-3 km above)
Identify steps to develop a network that meets “multiple
national needs” in a cost-effective manner.
Multiple National Needs
We framed the whole study around major applications.
Health and Safety
Transportation
Food and Water
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Energy
Security
How should we define mesoscale
observations?*
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Those that resolve mesoscale structure and detect events?
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Those that enable dynamical prediction?
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Non-meteorological obs having influence on weather?
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Environmental conditions influenced by weather?
All of the above.
Which raises the bar considerably
* In the context of satellites and the global obs system
Diverse Players
energetic and chaotic
Complex
Widely vested
Driven by local market forces
Countless Users and Uses
Thousands of providers
17 Federal Agencies
Multiple Agencies in all States
Municipalities
Water Districts
Various Local Authorities
Agricultural Producers
Fortune 500 Corporations
Countless small businesses
Universities, Research Labs
K-12 Schools
Enthusiasts and hobbyists
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Current Status
energetic and chaotic
Weaknesses
Mostly locally driven
Lacking a national strategy
Disparate systems
Single application
Unknown exposures
Unknown standards
Various comms protocols
A condition of “false sparsity”
Spatial gaps and sensor gaps
Few vertical profiles
Soil moisture
Oklahoma, “gold Standard” or “lunatic fringe” ??
Strengths
dense surface networks
responsive to local needs
grass roots participation
near population centers
regional collectives
Increased coordination is indicated.
What’s needed to improve functionality
and increase benefits to the nation?
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Provide an organizational framework
for coordination, integration and interoperability
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Make far better use of what we have
to satisfy multiple national applications
Augment current observations
in the strategic gaps identified
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A Challenge
To preserve and enhance the rich diversity of investment
(mainly motivated by unique local interests)
While also introducing sufficient coordination
To realize increased benefits for multiple national needs.
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What Observations are Needed?
And what enhancements do these infer?
Basic Infrastructure to Monitor and Predict
Mesoscale Weather
Energy Security
Public Health and Safety
Transportation
Water Resources and Food Production
We looked for “common threads” among these.
We also discussed the benefits to be derived for and from research.
A Phenomenological Approach
was used for core weather monitoring and prediction components
Common Threads
X important gaps may exist;
so inadequate that no network can be said to exist.
Inferred Priorities from Common Threads
MOST NEEDED:
Profile Data
 Height and structure of the PBL
 Soil moisture and temperature profiles
 High resolution vertical profiles of humidity
 ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER: carbon monoxide, sulfur
dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter < 2.5µ microns
NEEDED:
 Direct and diffuse radiation
 High vertical resolution profiles of wind and temperature
 Sub-surface temperature profiles (e.g., under pavement)
 Icing near the surface
 Surface turbulence parameters
Urban, Coastal and Mountainous Regions
have added complexity, increased societal impact,
and are especially in need of augmentation.
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The Vision
To create the network of our dreams…
A Network of Networks (NoN), serving multiple applications,
jointly provided and used by government, industry,
academia and the public.
NoN could be enabled to dynamically configure customized
networks….. As specified by the users themselves.
Albeit at different levels of effectiveness, this can be
implemented with or without additional observing systems.
Steps to Ensure Progress
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Key Attributes of an Idealized NoN
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Stability and Continuity
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Incentives to Participate
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Metadata, Metadata, Metadata
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Access to More and Better Data
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Establish and protect data/IP rights
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Rolling review of societal needs, gaps, requirements
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Flexibility to evolve and adapt to new conditions across sectors
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A local presence for regular contact with providers and stakeholders
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Essential Core Services
We recommend 13 enabling services:
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Expert assistance and monetary incentives to maintain standards
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Knowledge of data available and suitable to one’s own application
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Ease of access to custom-configured sets of observations/analyses
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Archival of data commensurate with useful lifetimes
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Economy of access to products and services from other providers
The importance of extensive metadata is absolutely
critical to the effectiveness of an NoN.
17 categories of metadata are defined
Organizational Model Options
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Publicly Chartered, Private Non-Profit Corporation
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Privately Chartered Non-Profit Corporation (501c3 – e.g., ESIP)
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Confederation of Federal Agencies
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Seeded Viral NoN
x
Lead Federal Agency
X
Multi-level Government Confederation
x
Government-Industry Confederation
x
Private For-Profit Corporation
We have assumed it is necessary and desirable to
engage the full breadth of the mesoscale observations
enterprise.
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We highlighted this option
A hybrid
“Corporation for Environmental Monitoring”
To provide 13 “essential core services”
Does not own or operate individual networks.
An enabling entity that comes into play only insofar as is necessary to
realize the added utility and functionality of an NoN.
A minimum degree of centralization for coordination and interoperability.
Able to receive and transfer funds from all entities, including Congress.
A relatively small but vital fraction of the public-private enterprise.
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Convene the Stakeholders
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Stakeholders, including all levels of government, various
private sector interests, and academia should collectively
develop and implement a plan for achieving and
sustaining a mesoscale observing system to meet
multiple national needs.
a summit to achieve “buy-in”, followed by numerous
professional/technical forums…..
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End User Assessment
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The stakeholders should commission an independent team of
social and physical scientists to conduct end user assessments
for selected sectors.
current use and value in decision-making;
anticipated added value associated with proposed new observations
periodic assessments of the societal impact and its value
This is envisioned as an ongoing and recurring activity.
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A Multi-faceted Relationship to Research
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As users for the conduct of research
leverages a national backbone, lower cost, better experiments everywhere
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As providers of data to the broader NoN
improved analyses, “testbeds” to assess the utility of added observations
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As developers of advanced technologies
opportunity to investigate and demonstrate their potential use and value
The opportunities may be especially ripe for biosphere, hydrosphere,
atmosphere interactions (e.g. CASA, NEON, CUASHI).
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Take Home Message
We have a dream:
A NoN that is dynamically user-configurable and interoperable.
Participating organizations serve only their own mission,
while their contributions are enabled to serve multiple national needs.
The organization should mirror the stakeholders themselves,
being similarly adept and responsive to large agencies, academia, major
corporations, local districts, small businesses and volunteers.
The most formidable challenge before us is to assemble this grand alliance!
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Questions? Comments?
Committee on Developing Mesoscale Meteorological Observational
Capabilities to Meet Multiple National Needs. Irvine, CA,
February 2008. Photo courtesy of Peggy LeMone.