Transcript Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland

Addition of Strategic and Tactical
Observing Systems for Homeland
Security
Discussion of above proposal by
Rex J. Fleming
UCAR
February 17-19, 2003
Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism
Source:
Nuclear or radiation device
Truckload of Anthrax
Large Toxic Gas Release
Time Response:
Very Short—Save lives, ease human suffering
Short-term—Move people out of harm’s way
Long Term—Determine when ground zero back to economic productivity
Data Requirements for Plume Models (lowest 20,000 feet):
Accurate 4-dimensional input on winds (advection, dry deposition)
Accurate 4-dimensional input on water vapor and temperatures (stability,
wet deposition, moist physics/chemistry, etc.)
Nested Mesoscale Models
“Mesoscale” → fine
scale structure in
winds, temperature,
and water vapor
fields depicted by
high resolution grid
points in space and
calculated at closely
spaced points in time
Geographic extent of the computational grids. Grid 1 has a grid
increment of 30 km; grid 2 has a grid increment of 10 km; and grids
3N and 3S have grid increments of 3.3 km. The locations of surface
(plus signs) and upper-air (circles) observations are also shown
Ensemble of Simulations: coupled
mesoscale and plume models -Warner
Probabilistic Interpretation of the
Ensemble Output
Probability of dosage
exceeding a threshold
Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events
• Plume models driven by Mesoscale Models
• Mesoscale models: highly volatile sensitive to
quality of initial data
• Above results in a wide spectrum of results in
short time period
– stable predicted as unstable and vice versa
– convective weather lines moving too fast or
too slow
– moisture regions geographically misplaced
and intensity wrong by factor of two or more
Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events
(continued)
• Current upper air data (radiosonde system)
– 350 km average horizontal resolution
– two/day (12-hour) temporal resolution
– Large errors in system movement due to
advection uncertainty
– Very large error if systems developing
dissipating
• No mesoscale data
poor mesoscale model output
poor plume model input
poor plume model guidance
potential large loss of life -needlessly
Impact of Atmospheric Stability on
Contaminant Plumes
Stable
Unstable
Weak
Winds
Strong
Winds
more intense
less intense
least intense
less area
affected
more area
affected
least area
affected
(locally)
Fleming paper: “National Observing System…” at
Sensors, and Command, Control, Communication, and Intelligence
(C3I) Technologies for Homeland Defense and Law Enforcement II
part of SPIE’s (International Society for Optical Engineering)
Aerosense 2003 21-25 April 2003, Orlando FL.
my topics (black and blue)
Lidar Proposal (blue)
Strategic
(1) Mesoscale upper air (V,T,q) – commercial a/c
(2) Ground based Doppler wind profilers – major seaports
(3) b.l. winds via scatterometers (coasts, Gulf of Mexico, Great Lakes)
Tactical
(1) Aerial Mobile (special manned a/c, UAVs (sophisticated, simple)
remotely sensed Doppler Lidar winds, DIAL water vapor
profiles
in-situ (V,T,q) and species identification and concentration
(2) Ground Mobile (special trucks/vans and all-terrain Hummers)
in-situ (V,T,q) and species identification and concentration
National Strategic Observing System:
- Serves entire country prior to an NBC event.
- Provides 4-D mesoscale input as most powerful
information source at location and time of NBC
terrorist event
- Allows time (2-4 hours) for Tactical Observing
System to be brought into ground zero
- Further supports Tactical System in determining
radioactive fallout in case of nuclear event
(near-surround vs. far-surround)
• Commercial A/C measure winds and temp (lat, long, and
time available)
• Water vapor measurements proven in 1999-2000 (WVSS-I)
• Very accurate water vapor measurements with WVSS-II.
Uses diode laser, UCAR air sampler (patent pending), and
differential frequency modulation spectroscopy
– Air sampler is flush mounted, drag-free, stealthy, optimized for
diode lasers and quantum cascade lasers, works on anything that
moves
• Commercial A/C vertical profile of winds, temp, and water
vapor costs $1.10 each vs. radiosonde recurring cost of $250
each
Tactical Observing System:
(staged throughout country serving dual
benefits – one is NBC terrorism event)
-
Consists of a variety of systems: function of
(nuclear, biological, or chemical)
-
Includes existing satellite systems and systems
brought in by first responders
-
Measures 4-D area around ground zero and
near-surround
-
Consists of highly mobile systems (aerial and
ground-based)
-
Measures environment and contaminated plume
(composition, strength, 4-D movement, trends)
Ground Mobile
Systems
- trucks/vans
- all-terrain Hummers
- fast moving choreographed array for
environmental data
- optimally positioned array for species
identification, concentration and trends
Aerial Mobile Observational Platforms:
Special Manned Aircraft
-
Some existing government a/c
-
Some existing university and government research a/c
-
Some existing older commercial a/c suitable for
purpose
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)
-
Range from GNAT (48 hr endurance and 140 lb
payload) to GlobalHawk (42 hr endurance and 1960 lb
payload)
-
Smaller, simpler, in-situ data and plume info only
Special Manned Aircraft
(Medium to low flight levels)
- In-situ data
- Doppler wind lidar profiles
- DIAL water vapor profiles
- UAVs
- Sophisticated, existing (expensive) – same
as above
- New (relatively inexpensive) – in-situ data,
other (?)
Future Actions
•
Complete Proposal
Major Issues
- What technology for what aerial vehicles?
- This proposal calls for end-to-end delivery of
mesoscale information (a significant advantage) –
how, when is industry solution brought in?
Minor issues
- Add missing text; cut down on some
- Add references
•
Add budget appendix