Transcript Futurology & Egypt

What are
future
studies?
A social science
for
predicting the
future
Futurologists
•
•
Sociologists who study the future
use scientific methodologies to
hypothesise about the future of
society.
• They use methodologies such as
-scenario writing
-simulation games (asking people to
play out possible scenarios)
-asking experts, and
-analysing trends from the past and
present.
Trend analysis
Use patterns observable in the past or present
society to make predictions about the future
Delphi Method
experts are asked to complete rounds of questionnaires on the likely future. The
researcher then analyses these responses and plans the next round of
questionnaires for the experts. The results are graphed, interpreted, and used to
form conclusions about the most likely future.
•
Who would you consider to be experts who could
discuss the future of Egypt? Would the choice of
experts be different depending who the researcher
was?
In pairs: Go through your notes and decide on 5
“experts” for the Delhi Method of futurology.
Justify your choices. Do they represent a
variety of perspectives?
Scenario Writing
• analysts get together and
imagine possible
scenarios that could arise
in the future. They write
out a small number of
these scenarios then plot
then on a grid. Scenario
writing is quantitative
and typically used in
military planning and
business.
Themes in the Core Study
• Why did we look at Egypt for continuity
& change? Why not another country?
Australia? Japan? England? Look at
your syllabus and discuss in pairs.
Tahrir Square, 2011, captured the
sociological imagination of millions
around the world
The revolution cast doubt over many of
the assumptions of modern society…
what are the key assumptions of
modern society?
-What is modern society?
-What does modern society see as “commonsense”, “normal” and “good”
-Have these ideas been challenged?
-How?
Key assumptions
of modern society
1. That the “East” and the “West” are
irreconcilable
Where have you heard this assumption?
Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why?
Consider evidence in the world today for and against this statement
Key assumptions of modern
society
• 2. Belief systems rather than social
class are the key determinant of conflict
• Where have you heard this assumption?
• Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why?
• Consider evidence in the world today for and against this
statement
Key assumptions of modern
society
3. Capitalism is the final stage of social
evolution
• Where have you heard this assumption?
• Do you - or did you ever - believe it? Why?
• Consider evidence in the world today for and against this statement
Key assumptions of modern
society
4. globalisation has led us
all to a state of
consumerist stupor
(we’ve been numbed
and dumbed!)
-Where have you heard this assumption?
-Do you - or did you ever - believe it?
Why?
-Consider evidence in the world today for
and against this statement
“The End of History”
-Whose idea was it?
-What does the “the end of history” mean?
-When did the idea emerge?
-Why did the idea stick?
-How has the theory of the “end of
history” been challenged over the last
18 months?
-Who (what groups, individuals and schools of
thought) benefited from the theory?
-Do you, or have you ever, agreed with the theory?
Egypt: in the eyes of the West
-What did the western media say about the revolution? Why?
-Have there been different responses?
-Which groups or schools of thought celebrated / loathed the revolution?
Themes of interest for the West:
•
The “surprising” visibility of Egyptian women in the public sphere certainly a break with tradition. This level of gender equality in public
has not been seen since the post-colonial pro-Soviet days of President
Nasser in the 1950s.
List examples of media you have seen as evidence of this thematic
interest
•
The use of social media (technology) to disseminate ideas and report
events. What does this suggest for the future of information? That it will
be more inclusive? Democratic? That old, authoritarian corporate news
media will be surpassed by media that is inclusive, democratic and
collaborative?
List examples of media you have seen as evidence of this thematic
interest
•
The lack of ethnic and religious sectarianism in the protests: especially since 9/11, Western
media has been fascinated by ethnic and religious conflict in the Middle East, commonly
implying that the cause of war is religious fundamentalism rather than imperialism or class
conflict. The Tahrir Square protests were characterised by religious unity. A popularly
reported scene was of Christian Coptic Egyptians forming a protective barrier around Muslim
Egyptians during prayer time to protect them from rabble-rousers, armed thugs and military.
List examples of media you have seen as evidence of this thematic
interest
Revision
• Now its up to you to use past exam
questions, your notes, peer essay plans
etc to revise on this topic.
• You should spend time next holidays
revising Continuity & Change.