Transcript Preparing for the First Hourly

Preparing for the First Hourly
Course Structure
• Probability 
• Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics
• Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests
Course Objectives: Probability
I.1.Conduct simple experiments in sampling and compute sample frequencies (counts
and proportions).
I.2. Understand the principles of frequentist probability theory.
I.3.Understand the relationship between sample proportions and probabilities.
I.4. Compute probabilities using the Additive, Multiplicative and Complementary rules.
I.5.Understand the concept of the random variable, and how probabilities are computed
for random variables.
I.6.Understand the implications of observing events with small probabilities (rare
events).
I..7. Compute and interpret conditional probabilities.
Problem Tasks – Part I
Bowls, Urns, Dice
Estimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice
Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, Dice
Compare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice
Random Variables
Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the Definition
Compute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables
Probabilities
Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability Model
Compute Probabilities Using Computation Rules
Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run Argument
Compute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition and Directly
Random Samples and Probabilities
Estimate Probabilities from Samples
Compare Samples and Probability Models
Evaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples
Four (4) cases from Part One will be presented on the First Hourly. They will be
representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old first hourlies.
What is an hourly? An hourly is the same thing as
an in-class test.
How many problems will be on the hourly?
There will be four (4) cases on the hourly, and you
will write all four of them.
What will the cases look like? The cases will be
similar to cases that you have worked in class, and
will be similar to cases from previous versions of
the first hourly.
Will the problems count equally? Yes. There will be four (4) cases, at 25 points
Maximum per case, for a total of 100 points maximum.
Will there be partial credit? Yes, but be aware that full work and detail is required
for full credit. Your work and details are the basis for scoring each case solution.
What about the testing protocol and tool-sheet? The hourly is not a memory test.
Hence, you are permitted the use of one (1) 8.5” by 11” sheet of paper. Put on this
sheet whatever it is that you deem useful. You alone will use this sheet. Sign and abide
by the test protocol that will accompany the hourly.
What about the calculator? You must provide your own working calculator, and
you must be able to use this calculator. Do not share calculators. Your calculator is
your individual responsibility.
Notes for Study / Preparation
Study for one case type at a time. Take notes as you
go along.
When you have finished study for all case types,
compile your notes into a single tool sheet.
Customize this tool sheet for your own personal use.
Some Advice
• Check your calculator’s health before the exam.
• Bring pens, and work the test in ink – or bring presharpened pencils.
• Be sure to study your weakest areas.
• Study more recent material earlier, then work
backwards.
• Tailor your tool-sheets to your individual needs.
• Recall that discussion and interpretation typically
comprise about 40% of earned credit on individual
cases.
• Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in
the cases.