Transcript Open Review Day 1st Hourly

Open Review Day
st
1 Hourly
The Open Review Day (ORD) is an opportunity
for you to ask questions and resolve final
points of confusion prior to the actual test or
exam.
It is a student-driven diagnostic review.
Come prepared with specific questions about cases
that you have attempted.
Identify those specific cases and topics that are
causing you the most discomfort and/or
confusion.
Do not ask me "what will be on the test?" - each test
(hourly) is based on material in the appropriate
part of the course: worked case studies and similar
cases from older tests from previous classes. All
of this material is now posted, or will be prior to
the ORD.
Do not ask to see a problem of each type, when you
have not attempted similar cases of your own. Ask
about cases that you have attempted, and cannot
finish or understand on your own. Try to have
some sort of clue of where your confusion lay.
Do not expect the ORD to compensate for lack of
attendance and/or effort and preparation on your part.
The ORD allows you to polish off your preparations
prior to the test or final. It should be a finishing point
for your study, not the beginning.
About the Tool-sheets
For each in-class test (hourly), you will be allowed a single sheet (tool-sheet),
formatted as follows:
Content is up to your discretion;
The tool-sheet must consist of only one 8.5" by 11" sheet of paper. That is, one
contiguous sheet of paper. No origami, secret compartments, fold-outs, pop-ups,
just one sheet of paper.
I suggest the following types of content, but it is up to you.
Computational steps, written for your comprehension;
Writing/discussion samples;
When appropriate, directions and keystroke lists for your calculator;
Complete sample solutions.
The Analytic Narrative
An analytic narrative is the equivalent of a choreographic chart –
things to do, how to do them and the order in which they are to be
done. To build an analytic narrative for a problem, one must lay out
the things required to solve the problem, in the order in which these
things must be done, and how to do them.
Course Case Types and the Analytic Narrative
Build an analytic narrative for each case type in part one of the
course. The analytic narratives should form the core of your toolsheets and can protect a student from panic during a test. Even in a
panicked state, a student can follow the steps listed in a good
narrative.
Preparing for the First
Hourly
Course Structure
• Probability 
• Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics
• Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests
Course Objectives: Probability
I.1.Conduct simple experiments in sampling and compute sample frequencies (counts
and proportions).
I.2. Understand the principles of frequentist probability theory.
I.3.Understand the relationship between sample proportions and probabilities.
I.4. Compute probabilities using the Additive, Multiplicative and Complementary rules.
I.5.Understand the concept of the random variable, and how probabilities are computed
for random variables.
I.6.Understand the implications of observing events with small probabilities (rare
events).
I..7. Compute and interpret conditional probabilities.
Problem Tasks – Part I
Bowls, Urns, Dice
Estimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice
Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, Dice
Compare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice
Random Variables
Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the Definition
Compute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables
Probabilities
Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability Model
Compute Probabilities Using Computation Rules
Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run Argument
Compute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition
Random Samples and Probabilities
Estimate Probabilities from Samples
Compare Samples and Probability Models
Evaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples
Four (4) cases from Part One will be presented on the First Hourly. They will be
representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old first hourlies.
What is an hourly? An hourly is the same thing as
an in-class test.
How many problems will be on the hourly?
There will be four (4) cases on the hourly, and you
will write all four of them.
What will the cases look like? The cases will be
similar to cases that you have worked in class, and
will be similar to cases from previous versions of
the first hourly.
Will the problems count equally? Yes. There will be four (4) cases, at 25 points
Maximum per case, for a total of 100 points maximum.
Will there be partial credit? Yes, but be aware that full work and detail is required
for full credit. Your work and details are the basis for scoring each case solution.
What about the testing protocol and tool-sheet? The hourly is not a memory test.
Hence, you are permitted the use of one (1) 8.5” by 11” sheet of paper. Put on this
sheet whatever it is that you deem useful. You alone will use this sheet. Sign and abide
by the test protocol that will accompany the hourly.
What about the calculator? You must provide your own working calculator, and
you must be able to use this calculator. Do not share calculators. Your calculator is
your individual responsibility.
Notes for Study / Preparation
Study for one case type at a time. Take notes as you go
along.
When you have finished study for all case types,
compile your notes into a single tool sheet.
Customize this tool sheet for your own personal use.
Some Advice
Check your calculator’s health before the exam.
Bring pens, and work the test in ink – or bring presharpened pencils.
Be sure to study your weakest areas.
Study more recent material earlier, then work
backwards.
Tailor your tool-sheets to your individual needs.
Recall that discussion and interpretation typically
comprise about 40% of earned credit on individual
cases.
Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in
the cases.
Build Student Case List
Identify your review cases: for each case:
Specify Term (Fall, Spring, Summer)
Specify Version (A, B, 1, …)
Specify Case Number (1, 2, 3, 4)
Specify Case Type