Transcript Preparing for the Comprehensive Final

Preparing for the Final
Examination
Course Structure
• Probability
• Design Issues and Descriptive Statistics
• Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests
Problem Tasks – Part I
Bowls, Urns, Dice
Estimate Probabilities Using Samples from Bowls, Urns, Dice
Compute Probabilities from Probability Model for Bowls, Urns, Dice
Compare Probabilities and Estimates from Bowls, Urns, Dice
Random Variables
Compute the Values of Random Variables Using the Definition
Compute Probabilities of Outcomes Defined by Random Variables
Probabilities
Compute Probabilities from Scratch Using a Probability Model
Compute Probabilities Using Computation Rules
Interpret Probabilities Using Long Run Argument
Compute Conditional Probabilities Using the Definition
Random Samples and Probabilities
Estimate Probabilities from Samples
Compare Samples and Probability Models
Evaluate the Rare Event Assumption Using Samples
One or more cases from Part One will be presented on the Comprehensive Final Examination. They will
be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and old hourly ones and on old final
exams.
Problem Tasks – Part II
Clinical Trial Designs
Sketch Clinical Trials Briefly and Completely
Spot Faults in Clinical Trials Based on Brief Descriptions of Designs
Random Sample Surveys
Spot Faults in Sample Survey Designs Based on Brief Descriptions of Designs
Descriptive Statistics
Edit Data provided in cases
Compute Statistics Using the Calculator
Interpret Statistics Briefly and Completely
Summary intervals
Edit Data provided in cases
Compute Intervals Using the Calculator
Interpret Intervals Briefly and Completely
One or more cases from Part Two will be presented on the Comprehensive Final
Examination. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and
old hourly ones and on old final exams.
Problem Tasks – Part III
Confidence Interval Estimation
Compute and Interpret Confidence Intervals for Population Means
Compute and Interpret Confidence Intervals for Population Proportions
Hypothesis Tests
Compute and Interpret Hypothesis Test for Population Median
Compute and Interpret Hypothesis Test for Goodness of Fit
One or more cases from Part Three will be presented on the Comprehensive Final
Examination. They will be representative of cases worked in class, presented on current and
old hourly ones and on old final exams. Necessary tables will be supplied with the final
examination.
Specifications for the Comprehensive Final Examination
The course consists of three parts:
Probability
Statistical Design Concepts and Descriptive Statistics
Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests
The final will present four (4) cases which are drawn from each part of the course. The final
examination is comprehensive. Each part of the course contributes one or more cases to the
final examination.
In order to do well on the final, you must be proficient in cases from each part of the course.
You are permitted the following:
Your personal calculator;
Your two (2) 8.5 by 11 inch toolsheets;
Your writing utensils.
You must not share resources or information during the final examination. You must sign and
abide by the protocol provided with the final examination.
I will provide the final examination, writing paper, and the necessary statistical tables.
The final comprises four (4) cases, and the final period is two (2) hours. This gives you
approximately twenty (30) minutes per problem. Plan accordingly.
Grades and scores will be posted through the usual university channels. Course records and
finals will be available in the Mathematics Office after the course is completed. I currently post
scores and grades online. Additionally, the university posts your grades online, and paper
records, including the final examinations are generally maintained in the respective department
offices.
Grading Policy – Summer Term
We will have two (2) in-class examinations (called hourlies).
Your best performance will comprise 40% of your course grade.
Your second best performance will comprise 20% of your course grade.
We will have a comprehensive final examination,
which will comprise 40% of your course grade.
The Course Total Score and Course Letter Grade
The Course Total Score is the basis of the Letter Grade assigned for the course. The CTS has a maximum
value of 100 points, accumulated as follows:
The highest of the three hourly scores contributes a maximum of 40 points to the CTS;
The 2nd highest of the three hourly scores contributes a maximum of 20 points to the CTS;
The Comprehensive Examination score contributes a maximum of 40 points to the CTS.
The only letter grade earned in the course is the letter grade assigned for the entire course. I do not
interpret any of the preliminary scores as letter grades.
An "A" for the course requires a CTS of 90 or better;
A "B" for the course requires a CTS of 80-89;
A "C" for the course requires a CTS of 70-79;
A "D" for the course requires a CTS of 60-69;
A "F" for the course requires a CTS of 00-59.
Just remember the rule - 40/20/40
The only letter grade for the course is the Course Grade. Do not interpret any of the
individual scores on a letter grade scale.
Some Advice
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Check your calculator’s health before the exam.
Bring pens, and work the final in ink – or bring pre-sharpened pencils.
Be sure to study your weakest areas.
Study more recent material earlier, then work backwards.
Customize your tool-sheets to your needs.
Recall that discussion and interpretation comprise 40% or more of earned credit on individual
cases.
Be sure to use the methods and approaches specified in the cases.