Transcript STATCOM at Iowa State

StatCom at Iowa State
Luke Fostvedt
Iowa State University
Department of Statistics
JSM 2009 - Session 404
08-05-09
Outline
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StatCom structure at Iowa State
Some Clients and Projects
Post-Election Audits
Benefits
Conclusions
StatCom Hierarchy
Student Involvement
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Teams meet as necessary for the projects
◦ Meetings work around academic schedules
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Every member of the team is involved
◦ Regardless of experience
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Flexible work load
Volunteer Center of Story County
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First Ever Client for Iowa State StatCom
About to Begin a new Project with VCSC
Began by developing a satisfaction survey for
organizations affected by VCSC
Next project is to develop a satisfaction survey for
the individual volunteers within each project
Post-Election Audits
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Iowan’s for Voter Integrity
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Explore Various Methodologies
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Provides Exposure to Policy Making
◦ Transparency of the audit process
◦ Policy makers and election officials don’t often agree with
the statisticians (too much red tape)
Iowa Legislation
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Proposed legislation similar to Minnesota
◦ Avoids Statistics and Computers at every step
◦ Proposed Procedure Does not Limit Risk
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If a large margins of victory
◦ the method audits too many precincts (high cost)
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If a small margin of victory
◦ the risk can be large (wrong candidate wins)
Risk Limiting audits
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Method Based on Power and Margin of Victory
◦ Typically Power is 99% (pre-specified)
◦ Power must be high enough for voters to be confident
with the outcome
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Efficiency
◦ Samples as few precincts as possible when outcome was
correct
◦ 99% is the probability of detecting a miscount if one exists
Simulations
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Ran Simulations where the wrong candidate won
Tiered Method (Proposed in Iowa Legislation)
◦ Risk increases as Margin of Victory decreases
 0.5% margin of victory had roughly 80% power
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Risk Limiting Method
◦ Simulations always found at least one miscount
◦ Miscounts were simulated both systematically and
randomly
Current and Future Objectives
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Draft a White Paper describing our findings and
details a procedure for a post-election audit
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Perform a Pilot Audit during the 2010 elections in
Iowa
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Continue to consult with the legislators
Benefits
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Organizations / Community
◦ Allows them to enjoy the benefits of the scientific process
◦ Decisions made from StatCom analyses directly benefit
the community
◦ The Organizations enjoy working with students
Benefits
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Students
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Gain valuable consulting experience
Get exposure to statistical literature
Improve communication skills with non-statisticians
Get to work in a collaborative environment
Community Service Hours
Conclusion
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StatCom can be an integral part of every Statistics
Program
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Your Community Deserves it!