Transcript Part Two :Constitutions--- power maps for political system

Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
1. Sino-US relations
 Ever since the reconciliation in the 1970s, the relationship between
China and the United States has always been in the process of
transformation.
 It means that the main pushing power that promotes the
development of Sino-U.S. relations and major contents of the
bilateral relations have been changing all the time.
 Up to now, the two countries’ relations have roughly undergone two
important transformations and it is transforming into a new stage.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
1. Sino-US relations
 Sino-U.S. relations is an extremely special bilateral relations in the past
50 years of international relations.
 first of all, it is hard for the two countries to find some other important
common points other than “super giant” states. For example, the two
countries are at different social development stages, have sharply
contrasting cultural backgrounds, with different systems that are
difficult to pick up, have a great disparity over respective national
strength and contrasting ideologies, etc.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The second reason is that the two countries’ relations have
undergone a unique development process since Mao Zedong and
Nixon opened the gate for reconciliation of China and the United
States in 1972: at first, strategic cooperation was formed against
common threat while were lacking in inner demands.
 During the process of strategic cooperation, inner-driving force of
developing bilateral relations gradually emerged. After that began a
process of pursuing strategic partnership on a new basis, which by
now has roughly undergone two stages.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The first transformation expands from 1972 to the end of the Cold
War. Past studies have fully demonstrated that during this period,
major driving force for China and the United States abandoning
confrontation and coming up with reconciliation is their common
interest of countering Soviet Union’s expansion and putting an end to
the Indo-China War.
 However, two issues were overlooked, which later developments
proved that their impact is great and long lasting.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 One is about the role and limits of security strategic relations. In early
1970s, in view of security strategy, Chinese leaders made the decision of
reconciliating with the United States. Yet, readjustment of policy towards
the US ran in an opposite direction with the domestic ultra-“Left”
policies. American leaders placed security strategy on the first agenda
as well.
 They even did not consider whether Sino-U.S. relations exist some inner
value that is not subjected to strategic relations. Facts show that
common strategic interest only promoted détente of Sino-U.S. relations,
while the normalization of Sino-U.S. relations is closely connected with
China’s decision of reform and opening up to the outside world. Such is
completely synchronizing concerning time period.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The other related issue is that, when China and the United States were
moving towards reconciliation, the supporting forces within respective
society were too fragile. That is why both sides had to take measures
shaping positive images foe each other so as to make the other side at
least look acceptable to the domestic public. Such acts, combined with
the inevitable shocks arising from Sino-U.S. cooperation, created
unrealistic fantasy and too high expectations for the other side, making
people falsely believe that common interest on security strategy is
sufficient to sustain an everlasting Sino-U.S. relations.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
1. Sino-US relations
 The bearing power of such a state of mind was so weak that it
intensified misunderstandings and hostility at the time of Sino-U.S.
relations taking a turn for the worse. Up till now, such an imperfect
state of mind is continuing influencing people’s understanding of SinoU.S. relations
 The second transformation began from the end of the Cold War and
lasted to now. The biggest shock to Sino-U.S. relations brought by the
end of the Cold War is the smash of the strategic base that supported
Sino-U.S. relations.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 For a time, Sino-U.S. relations was as if a ship losing its compass,
drafting with the tide in a stormy sea. At that time, the problem facing the
two countries was, with the cover of strategic relations being lifted all of a
sudden, problems in the bilateral relations protruded immediately and
became critical factors determining the future of Sino-U.S. relations.
 Normal development of Sino-U.S. relations depends on whether both
sides would be able to solve differences exposed in bilateral relations
under the situation that bases have been seriously crippled and cast a
new base for Sino-U.S. relations at the same time.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 Problems in Sino-U.S. relations can be roughly divided into three
categories.
 The first category involves problems that concern China’s sovereignty
and territory such as Taiwan and Tibet, among which Taiwan issue is of
the greatest representation. Taiwan issue once led to a drastic slide
back of Sino-U.S. relations in summer of 1995 and military confrontation
arose in spring of 1996.
 The second category goes to ideological conflict, with the central issue
was human rights at the time. It has been seriously restrained the
improvement of Sino-U.S. relations and affected Sino-U.S. relations in
all aspects on a deep level. .
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The third category is frictions over economy, trade, and
value of currency.
 intellectual property right was of the most representation
that has many times pushed China and the United States
to the brink of a trade war.
 Bases being seriously crippled, it is a real test for both
sides to solve above-mentioned problems in bilateral
relations.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 In autumn, 1997, leaders of both countries jointly proposed building a
“constructive strategic partnership”, signaling Sino-U.S. relations has
picked up finally. Results gained through the exchange visits of heads of
state of both countries are out of expectation, both in form and essence.
 Its great implication lies in that it affirmed a new base on which Sino-U.S.
relations rely for maintenance and development. Such a new base
regarded mutual beneficial economic and trade relations as the core and
cooperation in trade and security as a pillar.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 More important, Sino-U.S. relations has transformed from simply driving
by “external forces (for dealing with their common external threat)” to a
two-way driving type with both “internal forces (arising from decisions
for cooperation from respective major domestic policies)” and “external
forces (need for cooperation on global and regional security affairs)”.
 It is worth pointing out that progress made in Sino-U.S. relations at this
stage has its special conditions. Moreover, these conditions are of
universal significance for both past and future.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 Firstly, decision-making bodies of both countries show desires for
developing relations. Such desires arose from major domestic policies
of both China and the United States. As soon as Clinton entered the
White House, he set a national policy of rejuvenating U.S.
economy. At the same time, spurred on Deng Xiaoping’s talks during
his inspection tour in China, China was striving for a new step up in
economy so as to secure the strategic objective of quadrupling its
gross national economic product by the end of this century.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The common desire of developing a mutual beneficial economic and
trade cooperative relationship has become the main power for
decision-making bodies of both China and the United States who
were determined to improve the bilateral relations.
 After 1996, strive for maintaining and expanding cooperation in
security field has strengthened the momentum for the improvement
of Sino-U.S. relations.
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 Facts show that the power strength that inside societies of China and the
United States for developing bilateral relations are different, with the
desire for developing Sino-U.S. relations inside Chinese society exceeds
that of U.S..
 Such desires in the Chinese society include developing economic and
trade relations with the United States, learning advanced science and
technology from U.S. and getting to know U.S. culture.
 In all, the United States is an important reference to China’s
modernization drive. On the other hand, the U.S. side thinks more of
trade and security needs and its inner demand for developing relations
with China is not as strong as China’s.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The second condition is that, China’s reform and opening up to the
outside world and its foreign policies would not have a fundamental
reverse and the United States would not challenge China’s core interest.
 Without the national development strategy adopted since the Third
Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee by the CCP, without the
expedition of Deng Xiaoping’s talks during his inspection tour, it is almost
out of the question for China to try to maintain a constructive relationship
with the United States.
 If the US had continuously challenged China’s core interest and did not as
in 1994 move human rights issue away from the central place of “One
China Principle” on Taiwan issue, it is also impossible for China and the
United States to maintain a constructive relations.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 The foregoing two basic conditions have in fact provided a basic thread
for an understanding of present and near future changes of Sino-U.S.
relations. Such a thread is whether both sides have, arising from their
respective basic national policies, desires for developing cooperative
relations and whether basic conditions have been formed for promotion of
development of Sino-U.S. relations.
 The Sino-U.S. relations are currently moving towards a new
stage. Compared with the former stage featuring dealing with problems
in bilateral relations, an ever bigger proportion in Sino-U.S. relations will
be placed on jointly facing and handling significant international affairs
and opening dialogues on important principles that guide present
international order.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 For example, one direct cause for the setback of Sino-U.S. relations
was U.S. attack on Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia. However, it is
better to say that such a drastic impact was a breakout of long term
contradictions between the two countries.
 Behind that, it reflected significant differences on a series of
international issues between China and the United States.
 For example, U.S. and the Great Britain air attacked Iraq regardless of
the voting result of five permanent members of the security council; U.S.
increased its deployment of national missile defense system while going
against related international agreements; U.S. expanded spheres of
areas of U.S.-Japan military alliance, unwilling to commit that such an
alliance would not encroach on Taiwan issue;
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 Bypassing UN, NATO carried out military attacks over Yugoslavia, who is
a sovereign state and attempted to take this opportunity to make
substantial revisions to the state relations norms that of the utmost
importance, etc.
 Ten years since the end of the Cold War, while developing Sino-U.S.
bilateral relations in an all-round way, changes have taken place to the
positions of both countries in the present world. The United States, on
one hand, as a unique super power, not only its overall national strength
is far superior, it also maintains a forceful rising momentum in various
fields. Americans themselves are full of vigor being a world leader,
interfering all over the world.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 On the other hand, with a rapid upgrade of its overall national
strength, China shows increasingly concern over international affairs
and its spheres of influence are widening. Such is a sense of
responsibility for a big nation and also a natural result of China’s rapid
expansion of its own interests. China can hardly take an attitude of
evasion on many issues.
 To some extent, jointly building a “constructive strategic partnership”
is just a foreseeing reaction to such a trend of history mentioned
above. It definitely represents a positive will of cooperation.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 Against the such changing background, China and the United States will
have to face the problem at the deepest level that determine the bilateral
relations,
 that is, on one hand, whether China has determined to take a
constructive pose to mix itself completely into the current international
system, whose many important rules now favorable and ever more
favorable to developed countries with U.S. occupies a leading position;
 on the other hand, whether the United States has determined to
sincerely not standing in the way of China’s mixture into the current
international system as China is a big rising non-western country. That
means the United States has to readjust its attitude and position on
some important issues.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 To sum up, in order to lead the world, the United States has to face
and accept certain changes brought by China’s mixing into the current
international system.
 In order to mix into the world, a rising China also has to soberly think
and deal with various problems and difficulties brought by U.S.
policies.
 It is just from this angle sees that with a view of development of SinoU.S. relations, the two countries reached an agreement on China’s
accession into WTO have epoch-making significance.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 After the end of the Cold War, Sino-U.S. relations were described as at
“the cross-roads” for a time.
 In early 1990s, both China and the United States examined seriously
at relations between the two sides, striving to orient the relations
between the two countries in conformity with their national interests
respectively. At that time, the Chinese government proposed a policy
of “building trust, reducing troubles, developing cooperation and not
going in for confrontation”, while the U.S. government proposed an
“engagement” policy towards China.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 Just during the process of running-in these two policies as well
as after having experienced toss and torture of ups and downs,
the two leaders have gradually excavated and accumulated
common understandings and finally reached one on the
orientation of development of Sino-U.S. relations.
 That is to build a “constructive strategic partnership” between
China and the United States
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 U.S. bombing of Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia on May 8th led to a
drastic deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations, the degree of which has a
direct link with two sides’ diametrically opposing positions on NATO’s air
attack on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia.
 Development of events has obviously resulted in both sides’ doubts over
“constructive strategic partnership” and obviously lowering anticipation
for the future development of Sino-U.S. relations.
 Under this circumstance, in order to understand the Sino-American
relation’s future, it is necessary to analyze some characteristics created
in the transformation. In generally, those characteristics include four
aspects as following:
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 “Importance”. It means Sino-U.S. relations involves two countries’
significant strategic interests. For both China and the United States
have decisive impact on global and regional international political
situations, and Sino-U.S. relations is also greatly checked and
influenced by external forces and neither side would be able to go its
own way.
 “Comprehensiveness”. It means Sino-U.S. relations involves two sides’
political, economic, social, cultural, military security fields as well as
different departments in the government and various regions.
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 “Complexity”. It means China and the US have formed an interest
structure of wider contents and scopes. Interests at different levels are
becoming complicated. There exist advantages and disadvantages,
conflict and compromise, competition and cooperation. Concepts like
“enemies” or “friends”, “competitive adversaries” or “cooperative
partnership” are not sufficient to concisely summarize the status quo of
Sino-U.S. relations.
 “Infiltration”. It means Sino-U.S. relations has infiltrated into the social
life of both countries respectively and formed an impact not to be
ignored on the two countries’ domestic politics in many ways.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 After the Cold War, Sino-U.S. relations has experienced difficulties and
crises and it gradually improved through the process of surmounting
various problems and obstacles.
 This phenomenon looks contradictory, but it is determined by the fixed
basic characteristics mentioned above. The existence of them determine
that future development of Sino-U.S. relations will neither appear drastic
changes as before nor be smooth.
 Facing the above special situations, two conditions are indispensable for
improvement and development of Sino-U.S. relations in a new stage.
Part Eight: Sino-US Relations
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 First of all, it is necessary for China and the US to consolidate and
develop a set relationship framework that is in conformity with interests
of both sides. Such a framework involves a common understanding
reached on the orientation of development of Sino-U.S. relations and an
institutionalized contact system that is setup for the realization of these
common objectives. Such contacts should involve various levels and
fields as many as possible.
 Under this framework, leaders of both countries may secure an
effective lead and management of Sino-U.S. relations, making Sino-U.S.
relations develops in a fixed direction.
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 Secondly, it is of utmost importance to take effective measures to
build mutual trust. At present, profound reasons restraining SinoU.S. cooperation and even possibly leading China and the United
States to conflict are their deep going suspicious about the
strategic intentions of either side.
 Moreover, domestically, there is an obvious increase of distrust
towards the other side in both China and the United States, but
degrees and causes for that happens are completely different.
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 From China’s perspective, suspicious have existed long towards the
United States. The so-called “doubts” means suspecting U.S. strategic
intentions, not sure of situation of Sino-U.S. relations and having a
deep concern over its future development.
 There is no denying that there are various reasons for the arise of this
kind of doubt, but in general, such is a reaction to U.S. attitude and
acts in dealing with international affairs (affairs concerning China in
particular) in the past period. Similarly, general speaking, Chinese
public’s anti-America sentiments are aimed at some specific issues
without having some especially profound social bases .
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 Things are much more serious in the United States. U.S. domestic
discussion on “China Threat” have demonstrated that the US has an
extremely deep suspicious about China’s reform and opening-up to the
outside world would continue.
 U. S. worries about China’s strategic intentions and its future foreign
policies, worrying that China’s emergence would challenge U.S.
predominant position, etc.
 Such doubts are reflected on such acts as taking more and more
precautious measures against China. For example, while encouraging or
inciting its European and Asian allies to strengthen their armaments, the
United States is neurotic at every additional missile that China
deploys. This is by no means a normal state of mind.
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 Such an America’s abnormal state of mind is a compound of various
factors, among which involve cultural superiority, arrogance arising
from in a predominant position, potential awareness of exclusiveness
on race, lack of experience in dealing with big non-western nations
and opposing ideologies, etc.
 These factors are fundamentally influencing a group of Americans’
basic attitude and reflections on the emergence of such a big nonwestern country as China and makes it hard for them to rationally
look at some of China’s basic interests and emotions.
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 Yet, for such big countries as China and the United States, mutual
respect for each other’s basic interests and emotions is
indispensable. Seen from the above perspectives, much more efforts
are needed to eliminate America’s doubts and prevent such doubts
from evolving into erroneous policies.
 On the other hand, it is admitted that, after the disintegration of the
Soviet Union, the United States for a time saw post-unified Germany
and Japan who has a fast economic development as threats.
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 Yet, both Germany and Japan’s ties of alliance with the United States
and their attachments to U.S. have finally eliminated the United
States’ doubts.
 There exist no such conditions in Sino-U.S. relations. Only by
resolving contradiction and conflict can both sides gradually find out a
framework that can stabilize Sino-U.S. relations. The only thing that
is sure of at present is, it would be unprecedented regardless of the
finding process or that framework itself.
The end ,
Thank you!