Transcript 江家泗_城市化，就业与中美合作

Economic
Security
Urbanization and Employment
Professor C. S. Kiang, Chairman
Sustainable
Development
Technology
Foundation
Professor
C. S. Kiang,
Chairman
Sustainable Development
Technology Foundation
THE ECONOMY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS WHICH?
POPULATION GROWTH
1950-2006 population
> Last 4 million years population
ECONOMIC GROWTH
GDP of the year 2000 > GDP of the entire 19th century
人类纪时代
ANTHROPOCENE
——人类正在改变地球(Paul Crutzen)
: the current period that human activities have a significant impact on the environment
THE ECONOMY AND THE ENVIRONMENT
WHICH IS WHICH?
1st
INDUSTRIAL
REVOLUTION
I = P x A x T1
I
P
A
T1
=
=
=
=
=
Environmental Impact
Population
Affluence
Current Technology
Extractive
Linear
Fossil Fuel Driven
Abusive
Wasteful
Focused on Labor Productivity
21st
CENTURY
P
x
A
I=
T2
T2 =
=
Future Technology
Reusable,
Cyclic,
Solar Energy,
Hydrogen Economy,
Biomimetic Technology,
Efficient Technology, etc
Triple Crisis
1. Global Economic Depression
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credit & debt
supply & demand
GDP
resource depletion
2. Climate Change
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global warming
severe weather
natural disasters
impact on agriculture productivity
3. Social Equity
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population
standards of living
wide gap of social wealth
social instability
Cultural Diversity
Imperative: Collaboration (new mold) > Competition (old mold)
• Necessary for Future Cultural Advancement: coexist in harmony
– Respect, Collaboration, and Preservation of Uniqueness
• China + India (½ of World’s GDP): 200 years ago = by 2050
– Collaborate: create economic security, stability, and equity
• Cultural Complexity: African tribes = Chinese tribes (~55)
– Respect: must understand the people are not the same
• Local Characteristics  Global Impact
– Knowledge and information from individual communities or regions of diversity
can be applied in other comparable locations as solutions in a globalized effort.
COLLABORATION
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Transparency
Competition - challenge
Collaboration - opportunity
CHINA (22% of world population but limited natural resources):
• Ratio of World: 1/3 of cultivated land, 1/4 of water, 1/5 of
forest service, 1/10 of oil, 1/22 of natural gas
• Of World Consumption: 1/8 of oil supply, 44% of cement,
31% of coal, 31% of crude steel, 25% of aluminum
• China alone accounts for 6.6% of the global GDP (2006)
Population Distribution
Need to create living spaces
• Now: 50% of population (urban)
~650 million
• By 2035: 75% of population (urban)
More than 1 billion
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New Urbanism
• China’s Stimulus Plan: develop domestic need
• City Planning:
Generates small/medium businesses
Creates more jobs
Causes more money flow
Leads to economic security
OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES
Sino-US – Global Impact:
China:
Early stage – knowledge-based economic development.
Great potential – develop new energy technologies & low-carbon
economy.
The US:
Experienced – knowledge-based economic development.
Established industry chain – enhances new technology innovations.
China & the U.S.:
Largest GHG emitting countries
Severe climate change consequences
Similar low-carbon economy development experiences
Each announced new economic recovery plans
OPPORTUNITIES & CHALLENGES
Sino-US Collaboration – Global Impact:
Sino-US collaboration  new opportunities and new
era of alternative energy technology & energy efficient
development.
Sino-US collaboration success  deliver strong
message & set precedent for future global partnerships
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Green Building & Sustainable Community
• Recognize and Respect Cultural Diversity
• Collaborate as a Global Society
1. Exponential Population Increase: need for living space
solutions
2. Resource Depletion
– Solutions: Renewable Energy Sources & Recyclable Materials
3. Innovation + Traditional Technologies
– Focus: food, shelter, and mobility
GREEN TECHNOLOGY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY
Expert Teams Data Bank
Conventional
energy
Renewable
energy
Clean coal
Biomass
Biofuels
Green gas
Energy
infrastructure
Green
buildings
Clean water
Clean industry
Transportation
Grid energy
storage
Buildings and
materials
Conservation
Advanced
packaging
Energy
storage
(autos)
Grid management
Consumer
devices
Desali-nation
Clean design
Fuel cells
Smart grids
Displays
Fresh water
treatment
Energyefficient
engines
Hybrid
systems
Transmission
Demand side
manage-ment-
Waste water
treatment
Materials (bio,
chemical,
nano)
Logistics
Lighting
Water reuse
Monitoring
and
compliance
Structures
Production
Vehicles
Geo-thermal
Oil
Hydroelectric
Nuclear
Solar
Wave
Wind
We will combine input from Partners and an initial broad
market scan to prioritize 7 key sectors
and a target group of sub-sectors for which to provide
deeper exploration of opportunities
COLLABORATION
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Standard
Create a Standard for Urban Development:
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Measurable Criteria
Low-Carbon Emission Economies
New Renewable Energy
Recycle/Reuse:
• convert waste to fuel
• continue water, paper, glass, plastic, and other recyclables processes
• Collaboration:
• #1 country (USA - power/influence/economy)
• #2 country (China - population/economy)
Industrial Chain
• Upstream
• Downstream
• Development of Small/Medium Businesses
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Transparency
Knowledge-Based Economic Development
– Lay the foundation with 4 major endeavors:
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Innovation
Intellectual Property
Transparency
Rule by Law
Transparency
Principles:
• Proactive vs. Reactive
• System Science, System Engineering &
System Management
• Human Resource Development/Team
• Building - Cooperative/competitive
• Leadership Development
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Transparency: Challenges
Economy
Environment
Equity
Education
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Extension
Service
Stations
Transparency: Challenges
Inter-discipline
Integration
Internationalization
Innovation
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Collaboration
E
东
Unquantifiable
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W
西
Quantifiable
EAST & WEST IN
UNISON
东西合一
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COLLABORATION
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The Broad Group
• Chinese Prefabrication Construction Company
• Value:
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Green
Cost and time efficient
Decreases resource waste
Safer building process and structure
Proven effectiveness against severe weather and natural disasters
• Heat-Pump Ventilation Technology
• Future:
– World's tallest building, in China
– Collaboration: New Urbanism (low-carbon emission cities)
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Oberlin Project goals . . .
1) 13 acre development—Green Arts District
• USGBC Platinumnd & economic revitalization
2) Climate neutral—City and College
• Clinton Climate Initiative
3) 20,000 acre greenbelt: local foods 70%
4) education—1000 students/10 years
• College, LCCC, LCVS, & public schools
5) replicate: National Sustainable Communities Coalition
Powerspan CCS Collaboration with China Partners
• Entered Joint Venture with Huaneng Clean Energy Research Institute for
CO2 Capture Project Mongstad (CCM) Technology Qualification Program
(TQP) – Contract awarded Oct 2011
• Huaneng (largest power generator in China) has a capacity of over 125
GW and annual revenue of $41.5 billion (2011)
• The CCM project captures >1 MM TPY CO2 from a gas-fired CHP plant
which provides 280 MW electric and 350 MW heat (~3% CO2 in flue gas)
• Entered Cooperation Agreement with Sinopec (Shengli Engineering and
Consulting Company – SLECC) for ECO2 feasibility study for a 1 million TPY
CO2 capture facility (~150 MW) on a new coal-fired plant
• Project to provide CO2 for EOR at adjacent Shengli oil field – scheduled
feasibility completion Dec 2012
• Sinopec (largest oil company in China), ranked #5 on the Fortune Global
500 list, with $375 billion in revenue
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China – US CCS Collaboration Summary
Commercial Relationship Summary
Positives
- Powerspan joint venture with Huaneng, China’s largest
power generator, and cooperation agreement with Sinopec,
China’s largest oil company, are WIN-WIN
- China partners provide financial strength, low cost supply
chain, access to favorable financing, accelerated deployment,
and potential customers with large need
- Powerspan provides advanced technology, market access
and knowledge of western project requirements
- Sinopec 1MM TPY unit could be one of first commercial
scale CO2 capture units in world for EOR (CCUS)
Strategy Priorities
- Focus on expanding partnerships with Huaneng and Sinopec
to commercial scale projects in US, Middle East, and EU
- Other China and US projects are in development phase
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World impact: a new model of sustainable
economic development is imperative
Construction over the next 30 years
• China's resource use and economic growth mainly in resource-based and
labor-intensive industries
In the next 3 decades
Will "develop a knowledge-based economy" transformation, innovation,
respect for intellectual property rights, the law, to seek a breakthrough to
increase transparency, build ecological demonstration city with Macau and
Zhuhai will be the twenty-first century ecological demonstration city's
development.
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转变需要过程、示范尤为关键
•
当前，中国正处在产业发展转型的关键时期，下三十年的发展不能再继续走过
去三十年发展的老路，要转为以知识为主的经济开发，在创新、尊重知识产权、
守法、增加透明度等方面寻求突破。
•
前三十年是以香港和深圳为代表的建设和开发，后三十年则是澳门和珠海的时
代。
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示范项目在经济方面显示的竞争优势最具说服力，而对成功的、有经济价值的
示范项目的推广，势必将发挥其示范效应和积极影响，推进和谐社会的形成和
发展。
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知识为主的经济开发
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创新
透明度
保护知识产权
遵纪守法
系统整合
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案例一：生命光源项目 （食）
• 现代都市农业：
 实现城市土地的高效利用
 确保农业安全生产
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案例二：太阳能城市项目（住）
优点：
技术已经相当成熟；
发电成本也很有竞争性；
被证明其在经济上是可行的；
各方资金支持力度很大。
这样较为成熟
的项目，能促进
中国城市转型，
并实现民生、产
业升级、节能、减
排四大目标。
如果城市能够
提供政策方面的
支持，那么该项
目的市场潜力非
常大。
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案例三：风-电-车项目 （行）
风力发电的优点是技术较为成熟、成本相对低、风力资源丰富，但弱点是
稳定性差、不容易储存、对电网冲击大。而电动汽车的电池恰好可以解决
风力发电的储能问题，同时又可以真正实现汽车的零排放。对交通和新能
源的发展都具有突破意义。
但风电稳定性差、电池蓄电、智能电网等瓶颈仍客观存在。
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案例四：废物变能源项目
清洁能源公园：集合各类能源相关、低碳相关技术与项目，将研发、示范、
应用和一站式服务融为一体，打造综合能源产业公园项目。
十条建议
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建立生态智慧城市开发基金
建立生态智慧城市数据管理中心
建立城市区域规划决策中心
建立中小企业孵化中心
建立综合能源服务园区
建立自然资源交易中心
建立区域性和全球性物流中心
建设宜居和谐示范社区
建设世界环境大学
建设生态旅游中心
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