Transcript Chapter 5 Powerpoint

Chapter 5
Public
Opinion and
Political Socialization
1
WSU ESSAY #3
Public Opinion
• From the time we are born, many things
shape our political attitudes and beliefs.
Discuss how our opinions are formed. What
aspect of political socialization do you believe
has the biggest impact on opinions? Why?
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Ch. 5 Scenario #1
Read page 138-139
intro on the Death
Penalty. What is your
opinion about the
death penalty? Does it
deter people from
killing? Explain.
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Death Penalty Poll For Class
 The
recent execution of Troy Davis
proves the death penalty should be
abolished. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N9dXYr9tDYQ
 Lethal Injection is more humane than
electrocution, asphyxiation, gas
chamber, or hanging.
 Stoning or beheading is acceptable
forms of punishment.
 Discussion.
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Public Opinion
 Public
opinion about the death penalty
a good example of how opinions affect
policymaking.
 Public Opinion: the collective attitudes
of citizens concerning a given issue or
question.
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The Death Chamber
Alabama electric
chair, an option for
death in 9 states.
Lethal injection is
used in the vast
majority of
executions. The
chair shows the
ultimate power that
government has to
control behavior.
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Characteristics of Public
Opinion
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Opinions about a given government policy can
change over time, often dramatically
Public opinion places boundaries on allowable
types of public policies
If asked, citizens will give opinions about matters
with which they have no experience
Governments tend to respond to public opinion
The government sometimes does not do what
people want
Read examples on page 138-139
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Public Opinion and
Models of Democracy
 Opinion
polling dates from the 1930s
 Not a powerful research tool until
computers invented in 1950s
 Founders built public opinion into
structure of government by allowing
direct election of representatives to
the House and apportioning
representation there by population
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Sampling a Few,
Predicting to Everyone
Statistical theory of sampling holds that a
sample of a population selected by chance is
representative of that population
 Three factors affect accuracy of sample:

 Must be chosen randomly
 Larger samples more accurate
 Greater variation in population means greater
chance for differences in ability to predict
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Accurate Polling

Most national opinion polling organizations
poll 1,500 individuals
 Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the
time
 Even this small margin of error can mean
incorrect predictions in close elections
Polls can be wrong because of biased question
wording or superficial responses
 Look at current polls:
http://www.pollingreport.com
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Public Opinion and Democracy

Majoritarian model of democracy holds
government should do what a majority of
the people want
 Around 70% of Americans think majority
opinion should have a great deal of
influence on politicians

Pluralist model of democracy believes
democracy requires free expression of
opinions by minority groups
 Public as a whole rarely demonstrates
clear, consistent opinions
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Public Opinion and Democracy

Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under
majoritarian model
 Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do
not always reflect public opinion
 Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against
majority opinion (prayer at graduation – 75%)
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Majoritarian model assumes clear,
consistent public opinion about public
policies
Pluralist model sees public uninformed and
inconsistent about specific issues
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Gallup Poll
Accuracy
• Started by George Gallup
in 1930s.
• Predictions of presidential
elections overall pretty
accurate. See year 2000.
• 1948 – Truman not
expected to win.
• 1992- Perot not included
in poll, explaining
overestimate of Clinton.
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Stop the Presses!
Oops, Too Late….
The Most Embarrassing
Headline in American Politics:
• Polling was still new in the
1948 election.
• Early polls showed
Republican Thomas Dewey
far ahead.
• Most organizations stopped
polling weeks before the
election.
• The Chicago Daily Tribune
proclaimed Dewey’s victory
before the votes were
counted.
• The few polls taken closer to
election day showed Truman
catching up to Dewey.
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The Distribution of Public
Opinion
 To
understand and act on public
opinion, government must understand
how it is distributed
 Distribution of public opinion falls into
three patterns:
 Skewed
 Bimodal
 Normal
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Distribution Models
for Public Opinion

Description of public opinion results
depends on mode, or most frequent
response
 Skewed distributions have most
respondents with one opinion
 Bimodal distributions have two answers
chosen with about equal frequency
 Normal distributions are bell-shaped along
a continuum, requiring a moderate
approach to policymaking
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Figure 5.2
Three Distributions of Opinion
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Stability of the Distribution
 Stable distributions have little change
over time
 When same question produces different
responses over time, public opinion has
shifted
 When different questions on same issue
produce similar results, underlying attitudes
stable
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Ideological Distributions

Since 1964, ideologies have been
skewed towards conservatism
 Since 1992, slightly more conservatives
and fewer moderates
Changes in subgroups, such as college
students, may not be reflected in
general population
 Opinions about controversial issues
can change dramatically over time

 In 1958, 4% of Americans approved of interracial
marriage. By 2007, 77% approved.
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Figure 5.3
Are Students More Conservative
Than Their Parents?
Researchers at UCLA
have been polling
political orientation of
entering freshman. In
contrast to the
American public,
college students
increasingly describe
themselves as more
liberal than they did in
the mid 1980s.
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Political Socialization
Values acquired through political
socialization
 Most people exposed to same sources of
influence, or agents of socialization
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 Family
 School
 Community
 Peers
 The media (Chapter 6)
Political socialization =
the complex process by
which people acquire
their political values
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Your Political Socialization
 Scenario
#2
 Write down and discuss with a partner:
 What is your earliest memory of a president?
 When did you first learn about political parties?
 If you identify with a party, how did you decide to
do so?
 If you do not, identify with a party, why not?
 Who was the first liberal or conservative you
ever met?
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The Agents of Early
Socialization
 Fundamental principles of early learning:
 The primacy principle: what is learned first is
learned best.
 The structuring principle: what is learned
first structures later learning.
 The extent of any socializing agent
depends on our exposure to it,
communication with it, and receptivity
to it
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Family
Children
imitate
their
parents

Important agent of socialization, because
most people learn first from family
 Learn wide range of values
 If parents interested, learn to be politically
interested and informed
 If both parents identify with one political
party, kids tend to also identify with it
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Religion stronger socialization than party
because of regular activities, exposure,
care
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Family
 More
than ½ of young American
voters identify with part of parents
 If they change partisanship, generally
it is from being partisan to
independent (or independent to
partisan) than converting from one
party to another
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School

Some believe schools have equal or greater
influence on political learning as parents
 Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s
slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior,
and national pride
 In high school, kids learn to distinguish between
political leaders and political institutions, about
being a “good citizen,” and an awareness of the
political process
 College courses may teach students to question
dominant political values and stimulate critical
thinking
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Community and Peers
 Community makeup determines how
political opinions of members formed
 Homogeneous communities exert strong
pressures to conform
 Peer groups sometimes can provide
defense against community pressures
 Adolescent and college peer groups
sometimes clash against parental opinion
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Continuing Socialization
 Political socialization a lifelong process
 Adults rely more on peer groups and the
media for political information
 Adults gain perspective on government
as they grow older
 Values change reflecting own self-interest
 Social Security
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Word of God?
2008 poll about the Bible
• 38% - actual word of God
• 44% - inspire by God but not
taken literally
• 18% - ancient book of history,
stories, moral precepts
• Those who believed it is the
actual word of God strongly
favored government action to
limit abortion and to support
teaching creationism in public
schools.
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Social Groups and Political
Values
 Each person’s political socialization unique
 However, people with similar backgrounds
tend to have similar political opinions
 Questions from the 2008 National Election
Study (ANES) about abortion and the
government guaranteeing employment
good illustration
 42% against abortion and 52% for government
involvement in jobs
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Figure 5.4
How Groups Differ on Two
Questions of Order and Equality
These two
graphs show how
respondents in
several social
groups deviated
from the national
mean for each
question.
Freedom vs. Order
Freedom vs. Equality
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Education
 Education increases awareness and
understanding of political issues
 With regard to abortion, college-educated
individuals tend to choose personal
freedom over social order
 With regard to government programs to
reduce income inequality, those with more
education tend to choose personal freedom
over equality
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Income
 Most Americans consider themselves to
be “middle class”
 Wealth linked to opinions favoring a limited
government role in promoting equality,
somewhat less with order
 Groups with more income and higher
education value freedom
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Region
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Historically, regional differences in
political opinion important
 Fed by differences in wealth
Today, those in the South and Midwest
more likely to favor restricting abortion
 Those in the Northeast and West more
supportive of government programs for
income equalization
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Race and Ethnicity
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Historically, those of different races and
ethnicities have tended to differ in their
political values
 Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s
tended to favor Democratic party
 African-Americans initially Republican, but
later Democratic (95% voted Obama)
 Minority groups favor equality
 Latinos favor abortion restrictions more
than other groups.
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Religion

Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable
since 1940s
 Today, population 56% Protestant, 22%
Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less
than 2% Jewish (among 9% “other”)
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Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes
about social order
 Look at attitudes about abortion, death
penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research,
human cloning, and the teaching of
evolution or creationism
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Gender
 Men and women differ on many social
and political issues
 Women more likely to favor equality
 Look at abortion, affirmative action,
government spending on social programs,
death penalty, and going to war
 “Gender gap” means women tend to
favor Democrats
 56% women voted Obama. Only 43% voted McCain.
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The Degree of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
 Some believe terms liberal and
conservative no longer adequate
 However, political analysis requires
categories
 Most people don’t think of themselves in
ideological terms
Political ideology = set of values and beliefs a person
holds about government.
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The Quality of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
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Differences in liberals and conservatives
used to be based on opinions about the role
of government (Liberals More;
Conservatives Less)
Today, liberals associated with change and
conservatives with tradition
 Liberals more likely to trade freedom for equality
 Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for
order
 Liberals = support govt action on economic policies.
Conservatives = support govt action on social policies.
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Figure 5.5
Respondents Classified by Ideological
Tendencies
2008 election survey
Same survey on abortion
and government induced
equality as previously
mentioned.
People’s responses to the
two questions showed no
correlation, demonstrating
that these value choices
cannot be explained by a
one-dimensional liberalconservative continuum.
The pie charts in the
center show the proportion
of each group selfdescribing themselves as
liberal, moderate, or
conservative.
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Ideological Types in The U.S.
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People’s preferences for government action depend on
what the action targets
Poll respondents do not always categorize themselves
the same way their responses do
Ideological tendencies reflect differences between
different social groups
 Communitarians prominent among blacks/Latinos/no high
school degree
 Liberals prominent in the West region
 Women tend toward Liberal; men toward Libertarian

Many Americans liberal on some issues and
conservative on others. They usually opt for the middle
category.
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2009 Pew
Research
Center:
• Asked
citizens
around the
world if they
had favorable
view of U.S.
• Many
respondents
had
unfavorable
view of U.S.
• But majority
expressed
admiration for
U.S. science
and
technology.
• Respondents
said they like
U.S. movies,
music, and
television.
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Forming Political Opinions
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Studies show at least half of Americans
knowledgeable about government and politics
 Some groups much less knowledgeable (women,
blacks, poor, young) than others (men, white,
affluent, older)
 No ideological distinctions between lib/cons.
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Most people know if a policy will directly help
or hurt them
 Self-interest principle
 Some use decision making “short cuts” (ex: political
party labels)
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Political Leadership

Public opinion on specific issues affected
by public perception of political leaders
 See examples on page 168
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Politicians make arguments based on
shared ideology and self-interest
 Issue framing or “spin”: Ex: death panels
vs. lack of health insurance

Politicians’ ability to influence public
opinion enhanced by growth of broadcast
media
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WSU ESSAY #3
Public Opinion
• From the time we are born, many things
shape our political attitudes and beliefs.
Discuss how our opinions are formed. What
aspect of political socialization do you believe
has the biggest impact on opinions? Why?
45
•
Political socialization: students should be able to use the word political socialization properly.
They should understand that it is a process that begins when a person is a child and
continues throughout life. They should differentiate political socialization from other forms of
socialization.
•
Agents of political socialization: they should mention the major agents of political
socialization, for example school, the family, friends primarily. They can also mention other
groups such as churches, social organizations or school groups.
•
Political culture: they should be familiar with this term, that is increasingly becoming
important in studies of public opinion. They should define it in their own words, but at least
mention that it is a set of beliefs, attitudes and behaviors that people have towards politics and
the political system. What political values are important for democracy (i.e. tolerance, respect for
the law, belief in the established procedures, etc.)
•
Influence of public opinion on politics: they should be able to discuss why is public
opinion important, how can public opinion shape political decisions and policy-making.
•
Importance of political knowledge: they should discuss why is it important for citizens
to be well informed, or at least somewhat informed about politics. What is the impact of politics
on their lives, what is the effect of not participating. They should particularly focus on why young
people should be aware of their political environment.
•
Ideology and beliefs: they should have a minimum understanding of the major
divisions between conservatives and liberals, and the division of ideology into social
conservatives, economic conservatives, social liberals and economic liberals. How can you define
each of those groups? What differentiates one from the other?
•
Sources of public opinion: they should be familiar with some places where current and
RELIABLE public opinion data can be found. For instance Pew Research and Gallup. They should
be aware that public opinion data must be scientific, that a sample of 1,000 is statistically reliable
and that some polls may be biased.
Exceeds expectations
Meet expectations
Does NOT meet expectation
Student addresses 6 or 7 of these points
student addresses 3 to 5 of these points
student addresses fewer than 3 of these points
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