Transcript chapter52011

Chapter 5
PUBLIC OPINION
AND POLITICAL
SOCIALIZATION
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Public Opinion

Public opinion about the death penalty a
good example of how opinions affect
policymaking
 Opinions about a given government policy can
change over time, often dramatically
 Public opinion places boundaries on allowable
types of public policies
 If asked, citizens will give opinions about
matters with which they have experience
 Governments tend to respond to public opinion
 The government sometimes does not do what
people want
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The Death Chamber
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Taking the Public Pulse
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Public Opinion and
Models of Democracy
 Opinion polling dates from the 1930s
 Not a powerful research tool until
computers invented in 1950s
 Founders built public opinion into
structure of government by allowing
direct election of representatives to the
House and apportioning representation
there by population
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Sampling a Few,
Predicting to Everyone
Statistical theory of sampling holds that a
sample of a population selected by chance is
representative of that population
 Three factors affect accuracy of sample:

 Must be chosen randomly
 Larger samples more accurate
 Greater variation in population means greater
chance for differences in ability to predict
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Accurate Polling

Most national opinion polling organizations
poll 1,500 individuals
 Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the
time
 Even this small margin of error can mean
incorrect predictions in close elections
Polls can be wrong because of biased
question wording or superficial responses
 Look at current polls:
http://www.pollingreport.com

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Public Opinion and Democracy

Majoritarian model of democracy holds
government should do what a majority of
the people want
 Around 70% of Americans think majority
opinion should have a great deal of influence
on politicians

Pluralist model of democracy believes
democracy requires free expression of
opinions by minority groups
 Public as a whole rarely demonstrates clear,
consistent opinions
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Public Opinion and Democracy

Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under
majoritarian model
 Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not
always reflect public opinion
 Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against
majority opinion


Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent
public opinion about public policies
Pluralist model sees public uninformed and
ambivalent about specific issues
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Gallup Poll
Accuracy
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Stop the Presses!
Oops, Too Late….
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The Distribution of Public Opinion
 To understand and act on public opinion,
government must understand how it is
distributed
 Distribution of public opinion falls into
three patterns:
 Skewed
 Bimodal
 Normal
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Figure 5.2
Three Distributions of Opinion
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Distribution Models
for Public Opinion

Description of public opinion results
depends on mode, or most frequent
response
 Skewed distributions have most respondents
with one opinion
 Bimodal distributions have two answers
chosen with about equal frequency
 Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a
continuum, requiring a moderate approach to
policymaking
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Stability of the Distribution
 Stable distributions have little change
over time
 When same question produces different
responses over time, public opinion has
shifted
 When different questions on same issue
produce similar results, underlying attitudes
stable
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Ideological Distributions

Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed
towards conservatism
 Since 1992, slightly more conservatives and
fewer moderates
Changes in subgroups, such as college
students, may not be reflected in general
population
 Opinions about controversial issues can
change dramatically over time

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Figure 5.3
Are Students More Conservative
Than Their Parents?
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Political Socialization
 Values acquired through political
socialization
 Most people exposed to same sources of
influence, or agents of socialization
 Family
 School
 Community
 Peers
 The media
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The Agents of Early Socialization
 Fundamental principles of early learning:
 The primacy principle
 The structuring principle
 The extent of any socializing agent
depends on our exposure to it,
communication with it, and receptivity
to it
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Family and School

Important agent of socialization, because
most people learn first from family
 Learn wide range of values
 If parents interested, learn to be politically
interested and informed
 If both parents identify with one political party,
kids tend to also identify with it

Religion stronger socialization than party
because of regular activities
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School

Some believe schools have equal or greater
influence on political learning as parents
 Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s
slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior,
and democratic decision making
 In high school, kids learn to distinguish
between political leaders and political
institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and
an awareness of the political process
 College courses may teach students to
question dominant political values and
stimulate critical thinking
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Community and Peers
 Community makeup determines how
political opinions of members formed
 Homogeneous communities exert strong
pressures to conform
 Peer groups sometimes can provide
defense against community pressures
 Adolescent and college peer groups against
parental opinion
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Bearing Global Warming
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Continuing Socialization
 Political socialization a lifelong process
 Adults rely more on peer groups and the
media for political information
 Adults gain perspective on government
as they grow older
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Word of God?
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Social Groups and Political Values
 Each person’s political socialization unique
 However, people with similar backgrounds
tend to have similar political opinions
 Questions from the 2008 National Election
Study (ANES) about abortion and the
government guaranteeing employment
good illustration
 Check out your views: http://IDEAlog.org
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Figure 5.4
How Groups Differ on Two
Questions of Order and Equality
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Education
 Education increases awareness and
understanding of political issues
 With regard to abortion, college-educated
individuals tend to choose personal freedom
over social order
 With regard to government programs to
reduce income inequality, those with more
education tend to choose personal freedom
over equality
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Income
 Most Americans consider themselves to
be “middle class”
 Wealth linked to opinions favoring a limited
government role in promoting equality,
somewhat less with order
 Groups with more income and higher
education value freedom
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Region
 Historically, regional differences in
political opinion important
 Fed by differences in wealth
 Today, those in the South and Northwest
more likely to favor restricting abortion
 Those in the Northeast and West more
supportive of government programs for
income equalization
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Race and Ethnicity
 Historically, those of different races and
ethnicities have tended to differ in their
political values
 Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s
tended to favor Democratic party
 African-Americans initially Republican, but
later Democratic
 Today, minorities tend to have similar
attitudes on equality issues
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Religion

Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable
since 1940s
 Today, population 56% Protestant, 22%
Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less than
2% Jewish (among 9% “other”)

Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes
about social order
 Look at attitudes about abortion, death
penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research,
human cloning, and the teaching of evolution
or creationism
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Gender
 Men and women differ on many social
and political issues
 Look at abortion, affirmative action,
government spending on social programs,
death penalty, and going to war
 “Gender gap” means women tend to
favor Democrats
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Gender
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The Degree of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
 Some believe terms liberal and
conservative no longer adequate
 However, political analysis requires
categories
 Most people don’t think of themselves in
ideological terms
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The Quality of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
Differences in liberals and conservatives
used to be based on opinions about the role
of government
 Today, liberals associated with change and
conservatives with tradition

 Liberals more likely to trade freedom for
equality
 Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for
order
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Ideological Types in The U.S.
 People’s preferences for government
action depend on what the action
targets
 Poll respondents do not always
categorize themselves the same way
their responses do
 Ideological tendencies reflect differences
between different social groups
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Figure 5.5
Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies
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Forming Political Opinions

Studies show at least half of Americans
knowledgeable about government and
politics
 Some groups much less knowledgeable
 No ideological distinctions

Most people know if a policy will directly
help or hurt them
 Self-interest principle
 Some use decision making “short cuts”
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Political Leadership
 Public opinion on specific issues affected
by public perception of political leaders
 Politicians make arguments based on
shared ideology and self-interest
 Issue framing or “spin”
 Politicians’ ability to influence public
opinion enhanced by growth of
broadcast media
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