chapter52011

Download Report

Transcript chapter52011

Chapter 5
PUBLIC OPINION
AND POLITICAL
SOCIALIZATION
2
Public Opinion

Public opinion about the death penalty a
good example of how opinions affect
policymaking
 Opinions about a given government policy can
change over time, often dramatically
 Public opinion places boundaries on allowable
types of public policies
 If asked, citizens will give opinions about
matters with which they have experience
 Governments tend to respond to public opinion
 The government sometimes does not do what
people want
3
The Death Chamber
4
Taking the Public Pulse
5
Public Opinion and
Models of Democracy
 Opinion polling dates from the 1930s
 Not a powerful research tool until
computers invented in 1950s
 Founders built public opinion into
structure of government by allowing
direct election of representatives to the
House and apportioning representation
there by population
6
Sampling a Few,
Predicting to Everyone
Statistical theory of sampling holds that a
sample of a population selected by chance is
representative of that population
 Three factors affect accuracy of sample:

 Must be chosen randomly
 Larger samples more accurate
 Greater variation in population means greater
chance for differences in ability to predict
7
Accurate Polling

Most national opinion polling organizations
poll 1,500 individuals
 Accurate within 3 percentage points 95% of the
time
 Even this small margin of error can mean
incorrect predictions in close elections
Polls can be wrong because of biased
question wording or superficial responses
 Look at current polls:
http://www.pollingreport.com

8
Public Opinion and Democracy

Majoritarian model of democracy holds
government should do what a majority of
the people want
 Around 70% of Americans think majority
opinion should have a great deal of influence
on politicians

Pluralist model of democracy believes
democracy requires free expression of
opinions by minority groups
 Public as a whole rarely demonstrates clear,
consistent opinions
9
Public Opinion and Democracy

Difficult to see U.S. as democratic under
majoritarian model
 Bills passed in Congress or state legislatures do not
always reflect public opinion
 Supreme Court decisions sometimes go against
majority opinion


Majoritarian model assumes clear, consistent
public opinion about public policies
Pluralist model sees public uninformed and
ambivalent about specific issues
10
Gallup Poll
Accuracy
11
Stop the Presses!
Oops, Too Late….
12
The Distribution of Public Opinion
 To understand and act on public opinion,
government must understand how it is
distributed
 Distribution of public opinion falls into
three patterns:
 Skewed
 Bimodal
 Normal
13
Figure 5.2
Three Distributions of Opinion
14
Distribution Models
for Public Opinion

Description of public opinion results
depends on mode, or most frequent
response
 Skewed distributions have most respondents
with one opinion
 Bimodal distributions have two answers
chosen with about equal frequency
 Normal distributions are bell-shaped along a
continuum, requiring a moderate approach to
policymaking
15
Stability of the Distribution
 Stable distributions have little change
over time
 When same question produces different
responses over time, public opinion has
shifted
 When different questions on same issue
produce similar results, underlying attitudes
stable
16
Ideological Distributions

Since 1964, ideologies have been skewed
towards conservatism
 Since 1992, slightly more conservatives and
fewer moderates
Changes in subgroups, such as college
students, may not be reflected in general
population
 Opinions about controversial issues can
change dramatically over time

17
Figure 5.3
Are Students More Conservative
Than Their Parents?
18
Political Socialization
 Values acquired through political
socialization
 Most people exposed to same sources of
influence, or agents of socialization
 Family
 School
 Community
 Peers
 The media
19
The Agents of Early Socialization
 Fundamental principles of early learning:
 The primacy principle
 The structuring principle
 The extent of any socializing agent
depends on our exposure to it,
communication with it, and receptivity
to it
20
Family and School

Important agent of socialization, because
most people learn first from family
 Learn wide range of values
 If parents interested, learn to be politically
interested and informed
 If both parents identify with one political party,
kids tend to also identify with it

Religion stronger socialization than party
because of regular activities
21
School

Some believe schools have equal or greater
influence on political learning as parents
 Elementary schools teach kids about nation’s
slogans and symbols, norms of group behavior,
and democratic decision making
 In high school, kids learn to distinguish
between political leaders and political
institutions, about being a “good citizen,” and
an awareness of the political process
 College courses may teach students to
question dominant political values and
stimulate critical thinking
22
Community and Peers
 Community makeup determines how
political opinions of members formed
 Homogeneous communities exert strong
pressures to conform
 Peer groups sometimes can provide
defense against community pressures
 Adolescent and college peer groups against
parental opinion
23
Bearing Global Warming
24
Continuing Socialization
 Political socialization a lifelong process
 Adults rely more on peer groups and the
media for political information
 Adults gain perspective on government
as they grow older
25
Word of God?
26
Social Groups and Political Values
 Each person’s political socialization unique
 However, people with similar backgrounds
tend to have similar political opinions
 Questions from the 2008 National Election
Study (ANES) about abortion and the
government guaranteeing employment
good illustration
 Check out your views: http://IDEAlog.org
27
Figure 5.4
How Groups Differ on Two
Questions of Order and Equality
28
Education
 Education increases awareness and
understanding of political issues
 With regard to abortion, college-educated
individuals tend to choose personal freedom
over social order
 With regard to government programs to
reduce income inequality, those with more
education tend to choose personal freedom
over equality
29
Income
 Most Americans consider themselves to
be “middle class”
 Wealth linked to opinions favoring a limited
government role in promoting equality,
somewhat less with order
 Groups with more income and higher
education value freedom
30
Region
 Historically, regional differences in
political opinion important
 Fed by differences in wealth
 Today, those in the South and Northwest
more likely to favor restricting abortion
 Those in the Northeast and West more
supportive of government programs for
income equalization
31
Race and Ethnicity
 Historically, those of different races and
ethnicities have tended to differ in their
political values
 Immigrants in late 1800s and early 1900s
tended to favor Democratic party
 African-Americans initially Republican, but
later Democratic
 Today, minorities tend to have similar
attitudes on equality issues
32
Religion

Religious makeup of the U.S. fairly stable
since 1940s
 Today, population 56% Protestant, 22%
Catholic, 13% profess no religion, and less than
2% Jewish (among 9% “other”)

Religious beliefs tend to affect attitudes
about social order
 Look at attitudes about abortion, death
penalty, gay marriage, stem cell research,
human cloning, and the teaching of evolution
or creationism
33
Gender
 Men and women differ on many social
and political issues
 Look at abortion, affirmative action,
government spending on social programs,
death penalty, and going to war
 “Gender gap” means women tend to
favor Democrats
34
Gender
35
The Degree of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
 Some believe terms liberal and
conservative no longer adequate
 However, political analysis requires
categories
 Most people don’t think of themselves in
ideological terms
36
The Quality of Ideological
Thinking in Public Opinion
Differences in liberals and conservatives
used to be based on opinions about the role
of government
 Today, liberals associated with change and
conservatives with tradition

 Liberals more likely to trade freedom for
equality
 Conservatives more likely to trade freedom for
order
37
Ideological Types in The U.S.
 People’s preferences for government
action depend on what the action
targets
 Poll respondents do not always
categorize themselves the same way
their responses do
 Ideological tendencies reflect differences
between different social groups
38
Figure 5.5
Respondents Classified by Ideological Tendencies
39
40
Forming Political Opinions

Studies show at least half of Americans
knowledgeable about government and
politics
 Some groups much less knowledgeable
 No ideological distinctions

Most people know if a policy will directly
help or hurt them
 Self-interest principle
 Some use decision making “short cuts”
41
Political Leadership
 Public opinion on specific issues affected
by public perception of political leaders
 Politicians make arguments based on
shared ideology and self-interest
 Issue framing or “spin”
 Politicians’ ability to influence public
opinion enhanced by growth of
broadcast media
42