Transcript Chapter 6 - Cloudfront.net

Chapter 6
Public Opinion and Political
Socialization
Public Opinion Matters-Just ask
them!
Public Opinion is Important
 Can legitimize political authority through polls
 Can make political actors more responsive
– Clinton delegate model
– Bush (G.W.) trustee model
 It can help candidates win campaigns
– Push poll- “A push poll is where, using the guise of
opinion polling, disinformation about a candidate or
issue is planted in the minds of those being 'surveyed'.
Push-polls are designed to shape, rather than measure,
public opinion” (sourcewatch.org).
Public opinion is important (caveat).
 Public opinion isn’t stable or consistent.
 People have differing opinions.
 Public opinion is sometimes misinformed
(for most people, public opinion comes from
their values and interests not their
knowledge base).
Public Opinion-What is it and how is
it measured?
 Public opinion-politically relevant opinions held by
ordinary citizens that they express openly
– America is made of multiple publics
 Election returns, newspaper editorials,
participation level in demonstrations, and poll
results are all indicators of public opinion.
 Polls are the chief method by which public opinion
is measured.
Characteristics of Public Opinion
 When evaluating public opinion, it is important to
examine
– Intensity (how strongly do people feel about an issue)
– Stability/fluidity (how stable/fluid is public opinion on this
issue over time)
– Latency (to what extent are people unfamiliar with the
issue or just haven’t formed opinions on the issue)
– Distribution (what is the range of opinion on a particular
issue)
The Vocabulary of Public Opinion
Polls
 Public opinion poll- device more measuring
public opinion whereby a relatively small number
of individuals is interviewed for the purposes of
estimating the opinions of a whole community
 Population- the people whose opinions are being
estimated
 Sample- the relatively small number of people
interviewed for the purpose of estimating the
opinions of an entire population
The Vocabulary of Public Opinion
Polls


Probability sample-a sample for a poll in
which each individual in the population has
a known probability of being selected
randomly for inclusion in the sample
Sampling error-a measure of the
accuracy of a public opinion poll; mainly a
function of sample size and is usually
expressed in percentage terms
What makes a good public opinion
poll?
 Random sample of entire population (1,0001,500)
 Careful question wording
– Clear
– Questions won’t bias response
– Answer categories capture range of opinion
 Low and clearly reported sampling error
 Respondents have knowledge about the
topic
What are some shortcomings of
polls?
 Large sampling error
 Non-random samples
 Timing of polls matching opinion
How is public opinion formed?
 People develop their attitudes about politics
and government through the process of
political socialization.
 Early learning/experiences is the most
influential because it sets a foundation for
belief patterns.
 Early learning affects later learning.
 There are several agents of political
socialization.
Agents of Political Socialization




Family
Schools
Mass Media
Peers
Agents of Political Socialization
 Political Institutions and Leaders
 Churches
How Americans Think Politically




Cultural Thinking
Ideological Thinking
Group Thinking
Partisan Thinking
Cultural Thinking
 This theory suggests that our shared values
of liberty, equality, and individualism shape
how we think politically.
Ideological Thinking
 Ideology-consistent pattern of political
attitudes that stems from a core belief
– to measure ideology need to look at beliefs
about the scope of government intervention in
economy and social values (should the
government promote traditional values or
should the government not favor any particular
set of values)
Ideological Thinking: Some
Terms










Liberals
Conservatives
Libertarians
Populists
Neoliberalism
Left Wing
Conservativism
Neoconservativism
Religious Conservativism
Right Wing
Ideological Thinking
 Don’t confuse ideology (liberal v.
conservative) with party identification
(Democrats v. Republicans)
 According to a 2009 Gallup poll:
– 40% identify as conservatives
– 36% identify as moderates
– 21% identify as liberals
– Over the past decade the percentage of people
calling themselves moderates has declined.
Ideological Thinking
 Problem with ideology is that people aren’t
always consistent in their beliefs
 Political elites tend to be more ideologically
consistent than the average person
 No more than 1/3 of Americans hold
consistent opinions across issues
Ideological Thinking
 1950 Study the American Voter created 4
classifications
– ideologues 12% of population
– group benefits voters 42%
– nature of the times voters 24%
– no issue content voters 22%
 However, examining ideology is still helpful
in discussing broad patterns of opinions.
Group Thinking: The Outlook of
Many
 More important than ideology in determining
attitudes.
– Religion
– Class
– Region
– Race/Ethnicity
– Gender
– Age
Group Thinking: The Outlook of
Many
 Crosscutting cleavages because
everyone belongs to multiple groups, no one
factor dominates in determining attitudes
 “[C]ross cutting cleavages encourage
individuals to appreciate and understand
differences, which leads them toward
moderate opinions” (Patterson, 2006, p.
214).
Partisan Thinking
 Party identification-refers to a person’s ingrained
sense of loyalty to a political party
– Largest source of division on opinion; emotional
attachment to a particular party
– 2/3s identify as Democrats or Republicans; 1/3
independents (but even most independents say they
lean toward one party or another)
– For most adults party identification is stable and does
not change over adult life
– attachment influenced by childhood socialization
The Power of Public Opinion
 The extent to which one believes politicians
should heed public opinion is determined by
belief in the delegate or trustee model
– Delegates believe that politicians should comply
with public opinion
– Trustees believe that politicians should act
within their own conscience
The Power of Public Opinion
– To what extent are politicians responsive to
public opinion?
 Somewhat responsive if the issue is
controversial/highly visible
 For other issues it limits policy options available to
politicians; identifies what people will clearly NOT go
for
The Power of Public Opinion
 “One of the best indicators of the power of
public opinion is the great effort made by
political leaders to harness it in support of
their goals…for this reason and others,
great effort is made to organize and
represent public opinion through elections,
political parties, interest groups, the news
media, and political institutions” (Patterson,
2006, p. 220)