Transcript Public Opinion

Public Opinion
• Those attitudes held by a significant of
people on matters of government and
politics.
– However this term as actually difficult to
define because many “publics” exist; each
group of people with a different point of view
is a separate public.
Family and Education
• Family is the most important tool of
political socialization. Children, more often
than not, develop the same political ideas
their parents hold because so much time
is spent together.
• Schools teach the value of the American
political system and patriotism. Students
spend 8 hours a day at school from ages
5-18.
Other Factors
• Occupation, race, gender, place of residence
also influence one’s socialization.
• So does:
– The mass media: those means of communication
that reach large, widely dispersed audiences
simultaneously.
– Peer groups: made up of people with whom one
regularly associates, including friends, neighbors and
co-workers.
– Opinion leaders: any person who has an unusually
strong influence on the views of others.
Measuring Public Opinion
• Measuring public opinion is difficult because
data drawn from a sample population only
represents the views of that “public.”
• In order to attempt to measure public opinion,
political scientists use four main tools:
– Elections, interest groups, the media, and personal
contacts
– In a democracy, the voice of the people is supposed
to express itself through the ballot box.
• Parties that win elections often claim a mandate
– the people have given them the power to carry out their campaign
promises.
Interest Groups
• Are private organizations whose members
share certain views and work to shape
public policy.
– Their members work to spread the opinions of
the group to make positive change.
Polls
• Polls are the best way to measure public
opinion.
– Public opinion poll – device that attempt to collect
information by asking people questions. The most
accurate polls are based on scientific polling
techniques.
• Straw poll – polls that seek to read the public’s mind simply
by asking the same question of a large number of people.
• George Gallup developed the first polling system that
used scientific methods to conduct a public opinion poll.
The Polling Process
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Defining the Universe – who are we trying to measure?
Constructing a Sample – how are we to measure our
universe? Ask all of them? Ask only a sample of
them? Will the sample be random?
Preparing Valid Questions – Don’t use loaded
questions, emotionally charged words, or terms that
are difficult to understand.
Interviewing – how will the poll be communicated to
the poll-takers.
Analyze and Report the Findings.
Evaluating Polls
• Pollsters have trouble measuring three things:
– Intensity – the strength of feeling with which an
opinion is held
– Stability – the relative permanence or
changeableness of opinion
– Relevance – how important a particular opinion is to
the person who holds it.
• “Bandwagon effect” – people want to be on the
winning side, and will often say they support the
side that is currently perceived to be ahead.
The Mass Media
• 4 major forms of the mass media
– Television – 98% of all households have a TV.
Principal source of the news for 80% of the
population.
– Newspapers – The world’s principal source of political
information from 1704-1960. There are still over
10,000 newspapers published in the United States.
– Radio/Internet – is conveniently available in places
where TV is not.
– Magazines – 12,000 magazines published in the U.S.
with a combined circulation of 10 million copies a
week.
The Media and Public Policy
• The two areas that the media are most
visible are in:
– The public agenda: the media informs the
public about the important issues.
– Electoral politics: the media has made
political candidates less reliant on their party
for spreading the message because television
allows them to appeal directly to the people.